基于價值鏈的稅源風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-10 17:03
【摘要】：稅收作為國家財政收入的主要來源,是國家參與國民收入分配的形式。企業(yè)為了最大化稅后利益,在納稅過程中總是存在著較大的逃稅動機(jī)。隨著稅源變化的日趨復(fù)雜,企業(yè)避稅手段呈多樣化、專業(yè)化、隱蔽化的發(fā)展趨勢,導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)仍然存在大量稅源不能轉(zhuǎn)化為稅收的情況。此外,隨著稅源的急劇擴(kuò)張和稅源信息化建設(shè)的發(fā)展,各種應(yīng)用信息庫中存儲著大量的涉稅信息,但目前的系統(tǒng)在發(fā)現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)間存在的關(guān)聯(lián)性方面存在較大缺陷。因此如何將這些數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)化成具有決策支持價值的信息成為實現(xiàn)信息管稅進(jìn)程的關(guān)鍵。為了提升整體稅源稅基的管控效率,引入稅源風(fēng)險管理理念,建立嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)、有效的稅源風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系,及時發(fā)現(xiàn)稅源風(fēng)險點,變事后處理為事前預(yù)警控制,提升對稅源風(fēng)險的監(jiān)管質(zhì)量,具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文通過對近幾年引入風(fēng)險管理領(lǐng)域的系統(tǒng)論、ERP理論和價值鏈理論進(jìn)行比較并考慮到企業(yè)納稅申報材料的形成過程,得出價值鏈理論更便于發(fā)現(xiàn)稅源風(fēng)險管理過程中的風(fēng)險點。依據(jù)價值鏈理論分析企業(yè)可能存在的涉稅風(fēng)險點,得出23個財務(wù)信息指標(biāo)。由于稅源風(fēng)險日趨復(fù)雜及財務(wù)報表分析具有一定的局限性,本文加入反映企業(yè)內(nèi)部因素和外部因素的非財務(wù)定性指標(biāo),完成含有25個指標(biāo)的稅源風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系的構(gòu)建。由于稅源風(fēng)險預(yù)警問題是一個是與否兩種結(jié)果的二分類問題,且影響稅源風(fēng)險評估的相關(guān)指標(biāo)復(fù)雜多樣,不一定具有正態(tài)分布或連續(xù)性的特性,所以本文選擇Logistic回歸模型進(jìn)行實證研究。文中選取2013年與2014年存在虛列資產(chǎn)、虛構(gòu)利潤或一般會計記錄不當(dāng)違規(guī)行為的公司作為問題樣本,然后選取配對樣本組成共計198個研究對象的兩組樣本。通過Logistic回歸法建立了風(fēng)險識別模型,用以預(yù)測企業(yè)存在稅源風(fēng)險的可能性。預(yù)警模型包含凈資產(chǎn)收益率、應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、現(xiàn)金流量負(fù)債比、管理費用率、財務(wù)費用率、成本費用利潤率、每股營業(yè)利潤、營業(yè)利潤率、凈利潤是否為負(fù)值、經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈流量是否為負(fù)值、綜合稅率、審計意見等13個預(yù)警指標(biāo)。該模型預(yù)測結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確率為75.3%,證明了基于波特價值鏈理論提出的稅源風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系具有較好的應(yīng)用價值。
[Abstract]:As the main source of national revenue, tax is the form of national income distribution. In order to maximize the after-tax benefits, there is always a large tax evasion motivation in the process of tax payment. With the increasing complexity of the changes of tax sources, the tax avoidance means of enterprises are diversified, specialized and covert, leading to the fact that a large number of tax sources cannot be converted into tax revenue in China. In addition, with the rapid expansion of tax sources and the development of tax source information construction, a large amount of tax-related information is stored in various application information databases. Therefore, how to transform these data into information with decision support value becomes the key to realize the process of information management and taxation. In order to improve the control efficiency of the overall tax source tax base, the concept of tax source risk management is introduced, a rigorous and effective tax source risk warning system is established, the tax source risk point is found in time, and the after-treatment is changed into pre-warning control. It is of great practical significance to improve the supervision quality of tax source risk. This paper compares the ERP theory and the value chain theory introduced in the field of risk management in recent years and takes into account the forming process of the enterprise tax declaration materials, and draws the conclusion that the value chain theory is more convenient to find the risk points in the process of tax source risk management. Based on the value chain theory, this paper analyzes the possible tax-related risk points of enterprises, and obtains 23 financial information indicators. Due to the increasing complexity of tax source risk and the limitation of financial statement analysis, this paper adds non-financial qualitative index to reflect the internal and external factors of enterprise, and completes the construction of tax source risk warning index system with 25 indexes. Because the early warning problem of tax source risk is a two-category problem with two results, and the related indexes affecting the risk assessment of tax source are complex and diverse, they do not necessarily have the characteristics of normal distribution or continuity. So this article chooses Logistic regression model to carry on the empirical research. Companies with fictitious assets, fictitious profits or improper accounting records in 2013 and 2014 were selected as problem samples, and then matched samples were selected to form two groups of 198 subjects. The risk identification model is established by Logistic regression method to predict the possibility of tax source risk. The early warning model includes return on net assets, turnover ratio of accounts receivable, ratio of assets to liabilities, ratio of cash flow to liability, ratio of administrative expenses, rate of financial expenses, profit margin of cost and expense, operating profit per share, operating profit margin, net profit rate, whether the net profit is negative or not. Whether the net operating cash flow is negative, comprehensive tax rate, audit opinion and other 13 early warning indicators. The prediction accuracy of the model is 75.3, which proves that the early-warning system of tax source risk based on Porter's value chain theory has good application value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F275;F810.42
，
本文編號：2235069
[Abstract]:As the main source of national revenue, tax is the form of national income distribution. In order to maximize the after-tax benefits, there is always a large tax evasion motivation in the process of tax payment. With the increasing complexity of the changes of tax sources, the tax avoidance means of enterprises are diversified, specialized and covert, leading to the fact that a large number of tax sources cannot be converted into tax revenue in China. In addition, with the rapid expansion of tax sources and the development of tax source information construction, a large amount of tax-related information is stored in various application information databases. Therefore, how to transform these data into information with decision support value becomes the key to realize the process of information management and taxation. In order to improve the control efficiency of the overall tax source tax base, the concept of tax source risk management is introduced, a rigorous and effective tax source risk warning system is established, the tax source risk point is found in time, and the after-treatment is changed into pre-warning control. It is of great practical significance to improve the supervision quality of tax source risk. This paper compares the ERP theory and the value chain theory introduced in the field of risk management in recent years and takes into account the forming process of the enterprise tax declaration materials, and draws the conclusion that the value chain theory is more convenient to find the risk points in the process of tax source risk management. Based on the value chain theory, this paper analyzes the possible tax-related risk points of enterprises, and obtains 23 financial information indicators. Due to the increasing complexity of tax source risk and the limitation of financial statement analysis, this paper adds non-financial qualitative index to reflect the internal and external factors of enterprise, and completes the construction of tax source risk warning index system with 25 indexes. Because the early warning problem of tax source risk is a two-category problem with two results, and the related indexes affecting the risk assessment of tax source are complex and diverse, they do not necessarily have the characteristics of normal distribution or continuity. So this article chooses Logistic regression model to carry on the empirical research. Companies with fictitious assets, fictitious profits or improper accounting records in 2013 and 2014 were selected as problem samples, and then matched samples were selected to form two groups of 198 subjects. The risk identification model is established by Logistic regression method to predict the possibility of tax source risk. The early warning model includes return on net assets, turnover ratio of accounts receivable, ratio of assets to liabilities, ratio of cash flow to liability, ratio of administrative expenses, rate of financial expenses, profit margin of cost and expense, operating profit per share, operating profit margin, net profit rate, whether the net profit is negative or not. Whether the net operating cash flow is negative, comprehensive tax rate, audit opinion and other 13 early warning indicators. The prediction accuracy of the model is 75.3, which proves that the early-warning system of tax source risk based on Porter's value chain theory has good application value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F275;F810.42
，
本文編號：2235069
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