本文選題：政府部門債務(wù) + 向量誤差修正模型�。� 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》2017年08期

【摘要】：本文使用向量誤差修正模型(VECM)以及情景模擬方法對(duì)我國(guó)公共財(cái)政的可持續(xù)性進(jìn)行分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上分析了"新常態(tài)"條件下我國(guó)擴(kuò)張型財(cái)政政策的政策空間。實(shí)證分析的結(jié)論顯示,我國(guó)政府部門存在較好的財(cái)政紀(jì)律有助于避免債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)率的無限上升;同時(shí),目前債務(wù)和赤字率的上升會(huì)隨著未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的恢復(fù)自動(dòng)下降,不會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成實(shí)質(zhì)性損害。情景模擬的結(jié)論也顯示,隨著未來擴(kuò)張型財(cái)政政策的推行,未來五年我國(guó)財(cái)政赤字率將處在4%—5%的范圍,而政府部門債務(wù)率將處于60%—70%高負(fù)債區(qū)間,但我國(guó)政府部門債務(wù)仍具有較強(qiáng)的可持續(xù)性。面對(duì)"新常態(tài)"的挑戰(zhàn),未來我國(guó)擴(kuò)張型財(cái)政政策應(yīng)以實(shí)現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整和服務(wù)供給側(cè)改革為目標(biāo),同時(shí)注重防范財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)向金融部門的蔓延。
[Abstract]:This paper uses vector error correction model (VECM) and scenario simulation to analyze the sustainability of China's public finance, and on this basis, analyzes the policy space of China's expansionary fiscal policy under the "new normal" condition. The conclusion of the empirical analysis shows that the existence of good fiscal discipline in Chinese government departments can help to avoid the unlimited increase of debt burden rate, and at the same time, the increase of debt and deficit rate will automatically decrease with the recovery of economic growth in the future. It will not cause substantial damage to our economy. The conclusion of the scenario simulation also shows that, with the implementation of the future expansionary fiscal policy, the fiscal deficit rate of our country will be in the range of 4% to 5% in the next five years, and the debt ratio of government departments will be in the range of 60%-70% high debt. However, our government debt still has a strong sustainability. In the face of the challenge of "new normal", the future expansionary fiscal policy of our country should aim at realizing structural adjustment and service supply-side reform, and at the same time pay attention to preventing the spread of fiscal risk to the financial sector.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院財(cái)經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目“內(nèi)生匯率傳遞下國(guó)際沖擊對(duì)中國(guó)通貨膨脹的動(dòng)態(tài)影響”(71303256) 國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重大項(xiàng)目招標(biāo)課題“外部沖擊和結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)換下的中高速增長(zhǎng)和中高端發(fā)展研究”(15ZDC010)
【分類號(hào)】：F812.0

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