本文選題：預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差 + 省級(jí)財(cái)政��； 參考：《財(cái)政部財(cái)政科學(xué)研究所》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行,也稱為政府預(yù)算實(shí)施,是政府依照經(jīng)法定程序?qū)彶楹团鷾?zhǔn)的預(yù)算收支計(jì)劃安排政府活動(dòng),以實(shí)現(xiàn)政府職能的過(guò)程。預(yù)算執(zhí)行將預(yù)算由計(jì)劃變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí),是預(yù)算的具體實(shí)施步驟,也是整個(gè)預(yù)算管理工作的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)。政府在執(zhí)行預(yù)算的過(guò)程中,由于受到主觀和客觀因素的影響而未能或超額完成預(yù)算,導(dǎo)致決算與預(yù)算出現(xiàn)偏差,就產(chǎn)生了預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差。預(yù)算編制過(guò)程中對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)、社會(huì)需求的判斷不準(zhǔn)確導(dǎo)致預(yù)算計(jì)劃與現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)情況不符,編制者有意識(shí)地少報(bào)或多報(bào)預(yù)算,以及預(yù)算執(zhí)行過(guò)程中出現(xiàn)的臨時(shí)預(yù)算調(diào)整等情況,都是導(dǎo)致預(yù)算執(zhí)行出現(xiàn)偏差的原因。預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差體現(xiàn)出預(yù)算的軟約束問(wèn)題,說(shuō)明政府的收支活動(dòng)未能得到有效約束和監(jiān)督,不利于政府良性運(yùn)營(yíng),也對(duì)政府的公信力造成損害。 本文主要就財(cái)政決算收支與預(yù)算收支的偏差情況研究預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差。從中國(guó)財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差的整體情況和地區(qū)特點(diǎn)出發(fā),對(duì)全國(guó)31個(gè)省、直轄市、自治區(qū)(不含港澳臺(tái))的預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差情況進(jìn)行深入分析。對(duì)影響我國(guó)省級(jí)預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、政治因素進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究及案例分析,并基于影響程度的大小,對(duì)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析的結(jié)果做出合理的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)解釋。同時(shí),結(jié)合國(guó)外預(yù)算制度比較和現(xiàn)有預(yù)算改革經(jīng)驗(yàn),對(duì)現(xiàn)行制度改進(jìn)提出政策建議。 從研究框架看,本文可以分為三部分。第一部分是基礎(chǔ)理論分析,包括第一章和第二章,是對(duì)文章整體思路和理論依據(jù)的大致介紹；首先,基于目前國(guó)內(nèi)現(xiàn)狀闡述了本文的選題背景及研究意義,表明預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差問(wèn)題研究的意義；其次,簡(jiǎn)要介紹了本文研究思路和研究方法,論證了結(jié)論的客觀性和科學(xué)性；最后,綜述預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差相關(guān)的中外文獻(xiàn),展示了目前國(guó)內(nèi)外預(yù)算執(zhí)行研究成果,分析了基于省級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)我國(guó)預(yù)算執(zhí)行情況進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究的可行性、研究意義、創(chuàng)新和不足。本文以政府職能理論、財(cái)政分權(quán)、預(yù)算管理理論為理論基礎(chǔ),探討地方政府在現(xiàn)有權(quán)責(zé)分配下如何通過(guò)有效的預(yù)算管理以實(shí)現(xiàn)地方政府職能。 第二部分是實(shí)證分析,包括第三、四章。首先結(jié)合全國(guó)31個(gè)地區(qū)共計(jì)14年的預(yù)算收支執(zhí)行偏差數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)全國(guó)和各地區(qū)財(cái)政預(yù)算收支執(zhí)行偏差現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析。采用ward離差方法進(jìn)行聚類統(tǒng)計(jì),列示并分析不同執(zhí)行偏差情況地區(qū)的特點(diǎn)。其次,將1998-2011年省級(jí)預(yù)算收支執(zhí)行偏差額作為因變量,收入、消費(fèi)、投資、人口等方面的顯著指標(biāo)作為自變量,進(jìn)行回歸分析,探討對(duì)預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差顯著影響的因素以及影響情況。分別通過(guò)面板模型、案例分析的方法,對(duì)影響預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、政治因素進(jìn)行分析研究,對(duì)預(yù)算編制提供相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)支持和理論依據(jù)。研究顯示,居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)、利率、自然人口增長(zhǎng)率對(duì)預(yù)算收入執(zhí)行偏差的影響較為顯著,預(yù)算收入執(zhí)行偏差則直接影響預(yù)算支出執(zhí)行偏差。政治因素對(duì)預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差也有重要的影響,主要體現(xiàn)在中央與地方財(cái)政權(quán)責(zé)分配不匹配、預(yù)算管理法制不完善、預(yù)算報(bào)告與人大審批時(shí)間斷檔、預(yù)算透明度不足造成的監(jiān)督缺位以及委托代理下的利益沖突。 第三部分是研究結(jié)論及政策建議,包括第五、六章。梳理全文脈絡(luò),提出研究結(jié)論。在全文對(duì)預(yù)算執(zhí)行偏差進(jìn)行主客觀影響因素分析和國(guó)外預(yù)算制度比較分析的基礎(chǔ)上,從預(yù)算編制、預(yù)算執(zhí)行和預(yù)算監(jiān)督三個(gè)方面總結(jié)歸納對(duì)于現(xiàn)行制度的改革建議。
[Abstract]:The implementation of the budget, also called the implementation of the government budget, is the process of arranging the government activities in accordance with the budget revenue and expenditure plan reviewed and approved by the legal procedures. The budget implementation changes the budget from the plan to the reality. It is the specific implementation step of the budget and the key link of the whole budget management. The government is carrying out the implementation of the budget. In the process of budget, due to the influence of subjective and objective factors, the budget has not been completed or overdone, which leads to the deviation between the final accounts and the budget, which leads to the deviation of the budget execution. The inaccurate judgment of the economic situation and the social demand in the process of budget compilation leads to the discrepancy between the budget plan and the actual economic situation, and the compilers are consciously less reported. The budget execution, as well as the interim budget adjustment in the process of the budget execution, are the reasons for the deviation of the budget execution. The budget execution deviation reflects the soft constraints of the budget, indicating that the government's revenue and expenditure activities have not been effectively constrained and supervised, which are unfavorable to the government's benign operation and the government's credibility. Damage.
This paper studies the deviation of budget execution mainly on the deviation of revenue and expenditure and budget revenue and expenditure. Starting from the overall situation and regional characteristics of the fiscal budget execution deviation in China, this paper makes an in-depth analysis on the budget execution deviation of the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in China. On the basis of economic, social and political factors, this paper makes an empirical study and case analysis, and makes a reasonable economic explanation for the results of statistical analysis based on the size of the influence. At the same time, it puts forward some policy suggestions on the improvement of the current system in combination with the comparison of the foreign budget system and the experience of the existing budget reform.
From the research framework, this paper can be divided into three parts. The first part is the basic theory analysis, including the first and second chapters. It is a general introduction to the overall thinking and theoretical basis of the article. Firstly, the background and significance of the topic are expounded based on the current domestic status, and the significance of the study on the budget execution deviation is shown. Secondly, This paper briefly introduces the research ideas and methods of this study, demonstrates the objectivity and scientificity of the conclusion. Finally, it summarizes the Chinese and foreign literature related to the budget execution deviation, and shows the results of the research on budget execution at home and abroad, and analyzes the feasibility, significance and innovation of the empirical study based on provincial data on the implementation of our budget. On the basis of the theory of government function, fiscal decentralization and budget management, this paper discusses how the local government can achieve local government functions through effective budget management under the existing power and responsibility allocation.
The second part is an empirical analysis, including third, fourth chapters. First, it analyzes the current situation of the fiscal budget execution deviation in the country and each region by combining the data of the budget execution deviation of the total 31 regions of the country for 14 years. The ward deviation method is used for clustering statistics to show and analyze the characteristics of the areas with different execution deviations. Secondly, 1 The 998-2011 year provincial budget revenue and expenditure deviation amount as the dependent variable, income, consumption, investment, population and so on as the independent variable, carries on the regression analysis, and probes into the factors that influence the budget execution deviation and its influence. The economy which affects the budget execution deviation through the panel model and the case analysis method respectively. The analysis and research of social and political factors provide relevant data support and theoretical basis for budgeting. The study shows that the consumer price index, interest rate, natural population growth rate have a significant impact on the budget revenue execution deviation, and the budget revenue execution deviation directly affects the budget expenditure execution deviation. Political factors carry out the budget execution. The deviation also has important influence, mainly reflected in the mismatch between the central and local financial power and responsibility distribution, the imperfect budget management legal system, the budget report and the time of approval of the people's Congress, the lack of supervision caused by the lack of budget transparency and the conflict of interest under the principal-agent.
The third part is the research conclusion and policy recommendations, including fifth, sixth chapters, combing the full text context and putting forward the research conclusions. On the basis of the analysis of the subjective and objective factors affecting the budget execution deviation and the comparison and analysis of the foreign budget system in the full text, the current system is summarized and summarized from three aspects of budget compilation, budget execution and pre budget supervision. Suggestions for reform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：財(cái)政部財(cái)政科學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.3

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