發(fā)布時間：2018-06-08 17:50

  本文選題：財政政策 + 貨幣政策��； 參考：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：目前,中國經(jīng)濟已進入轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵時期。國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟環(huán)境復(fù)雜多變、諸多風(fēng)險并存對中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來了重大阻力。2016年中央政府明確指出,要著力以供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,來完成好去產(chǎn)能、去庫存、去杠桿、降成本、補短板“五大重點任務(wù)”。如何有效實施供給側(cè)改革,實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)增長,保持一個良好的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境,顯然離不開貨幣政策和財政政策的配合。由于財政政策和貨幣政策各自的作用方式及手段特點不同、其對國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的影響機制也不同。所以,在進行宏觀調(diào)控時,必須根據(jù)二者聯(lián)動機制的特點有機地協(xié)調(diào)起來,才可能有效實現(xiàn)預(yù)期政策目標。當前的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家都認為應(yīng)該將貨幣主義與新凱恩斯學(xué)派進行相互融合,單純的堅持“單一貨幣規(guī)則”或單純的堅持財政政策都不能很好的適應(yīng)現(xiàn)在的社會發(fā)展需求。只有財政政策與貨幣政策根據(jù)實際經(jīng)濟情形進行互補運用才能更好的適合經(jīng)濟增長。如何搭配財政政策與貨幣政策,使經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)增長,其根本在于弄清財政政策、貨幣政策與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系。本文通過對國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟形勢與國外經(jīng)濟環(huán)境的分析,運用描述性統(tǒng)計和動力系統(tǒng)建模方法發(fā)現(xiàn)我國的財政政策和貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟增長有如下特征第一、至1978年以來,我國的貨幣供給量M2、GDP、財政赤字波動幅度分別為:261.8、47、-0.053。這表明貨幣供給量M2波動最大,GDP波動次之,波動最小的為財政赤字。貨幣供給量M2、GDP、財政赤字的變異系數(shù)分別為:1.54、1.32和-1.91,說明GDP的離散程度最小,赤字的離散程度最大,M2離散程度居中。同時,我國的經(jīng)濟總量,貨幣供應(yīng)量和財政赤字三者之間存在著同步的變動關(guān)系。第二、我國的財政政策作用于貨幣政策與經(jīng)濟增長的動力機制是直接的。貨幣政策作用于經(jīng)濟增長的動力機制是直接的;作用于財政政策的動力機制是間接地,是通過國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值作為中間機制來傳導(dǎo)的,所以其對財政政策影響很小。我國的經(jīng)濟增長作用于貨幣政策與財政政策的動力機制也是直接的。第三、單獨的改變財政政策和貨幣政策,無論是暫時性的變動或者持續(xù)變動,運用財政政策的效果要比貨幣政策好。同時改變財政政策和貨幣政策時,無論是暫時性的變動或者持續(xù)變動,其經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中的變量變動都是以財政政策的影響為主。貨幣政策的變動只能對經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中的變量產(chǎn)生很小的效應(yīng)。第四、積極的財政政策和貨幣政策都有助于經(jīng)濟的增長,消極的財政政策和貨幣政策有礙于經(jīng)濟的增長。當政策的變動是暫時性的,那么它只會使經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的均衡從一個均衡轉(zhuǎn)到另一個均衡;當政策是持久的,那么它會使經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的均衡不斷的變化。第五、財政赤字、貨幣供給量與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值所形成動力系統(tǒng)中只存在一個強吸引力的均衡點。此點處的貨幣供給量和國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的均衡值與2015年我國實際值接近,貨幣供給量的均衡值為234163.25億美元,實際值為223540億美元;GDP的均衡值為109630.31億美元,實際值為108648億美元。這表明我國現(xiàn)階段的經(jīng)濟增長出現(xiàn)了很強的阻力,也論證了我國現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟增長疲軟和貨幣低效的現(xiàn)狀。因此,現(xiàn)階段,我國在運用貨幣政策與財政政策對宏觀經(jīng)濟增長進行調(diào)控時,應(yīng)以貨幣政策為主,輔以財政政策進行微調(diào)。并不斷地進行相機選擇,定向調(diào)控。才能確保經(jīng)濟運行在合理區(qū)間。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economy has entered a critical period of transformation. The domestic and foreign economic environment is complex and changeable, and many risks have brought great resistance to the development of China's economy in.2016. The central government clearly pointed out that we should focus on the structural reform of the supply side to complete the five major tasks, such as capacity, inventory, leveraging, cost reduction and short board "." How to effectively implement the supply side reform, realize the sustained economic growth and maintain a good economic environment, it is clear that it is inseparable from the coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Because of the different modes of action and means of monetary policy and monetary policy, the mechanism of its impact on the total value of domestic production is different. At the time of control, it must be coordinated organically according to the characteristics of the linkage mechanism between the two. The current economists believe that monetarism should be integrated with the new Keynes school, and the simple adherence to the "single currency rule" or the simple insistence on fiscal policy can not be well adapted to the present. The needs of social development. Only financial policy and monetary policy can be better adapted to economic growth according to the actual economic situation. How to match the financial policy and monetary policy to make the economy grow steadily is the fundamental reason to clarify the relationship between fiscal policy and monetary policy and economic growth. This article through the domestic economy. The situation and the analysis of foreign economic environment, using descriptive statistics and dynamic system modeling method found that China's fiscal policy and monetary policy have the following characteristics of economic growth as follows: since 1978, China's monetary supply M2, GDP, fiscal deficit fluctuation range are respectively 261.8,47, -0.053. which indicates that the monetary supply M2 fluctuates most. Large, GDP fluctuates and the least volatility is fiscal deficit. The variation coefficient of money supply M2, GDP, and fiscal deficit are 1.54,1.32 and -1.91 respectively, indicating that GDP is the least discrete degree, the largest discretization of the deficit, and the middle of the M2 discreteness. At the same time, there is a synchronization between the total economic total, the money supply and the fiscal deficit of the three of our country. Second, the dynamic mechanism of China's fiscal policy on monetary policy and economic growth is direct. The dynamic mechanism of the monetary policy on economic growth is direct; the dynamic mechanism of the fiscal policy is indirectly transmitted through the gross domestic product as an intermediate mechanism, so its financial policy is to the financial policy. The influence of China's economic growth on monetary policy and fiscal policy is also direct. Third, to change fiscal policy and monetary policy alone, whether it is temporary or continuous change, the effect of fiscal policy is better than monetary policy. When changing fiscal and monetary policies, whether it is The changes in the economic system are mainly influenced by the fiscal policy. The changes in monetary policy can only have small effects on the variables in the economic system. Fourth, the positive financial policy and monetary policy contribute to the growth of the economy, and the negative financial policy and monetary policy are obstructing. Economic growth. When the policy changes are temporary, it will only make the balance of the economic system from one equilibrium to another. When the policy is persistent, it will make the balance of the economic system constantly changing. Fifth, the fiscal deficit, the supply of money and the power system of gross domestic product is only a strong one. The equilibrium value of the money supply and GDP at this point is close to the actual value of our country in 2015. The equilibrium value of the money supply is 23 trillion and 416 billion 325 million US dollars and the actual value is $223540 billion; the equilibrium value of GDP is 10 trillion and 963 billion 31 million US dollars and the actual value is $108648 billion. This indicates that the economy of our country is growing at the present stage. The current stage of our country's weak economic growth and the low efficiency of currency has been demonstrated. Therefore, at the present stage, when the monetary policy and fiscal policy are used to regulate macroeconomic growth, our country should focus on monetary policy, supplemented by fiscal policy, and make continuous camera selection and directional control. The economy is guaranteed to run in a reasonable range.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.0;F822.0;F124.1

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉金全;解瑤姝;龍威;;“新常態(tài)”下中國財政政策與貨幣政策選擇的新視角[J];經(jīng)濟問題;2016年03期

2 蔡寧;劉勇;;對3%赤字率標準的再思考——基于赤字、債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)關(guān)系研究[J];財政研究;2016年02期

3 滿向昱;宋彥蓉;鄭志聰;;我國財政政策對經(jīng)濟增長的非對稱性效應(yīng)研究[J];財政研究;2015年04期

4 莊芳;莊佳強;朱迎;;我國財政政策和貨幣政策協(xié)調(diào)配合的定量效應(yīng)——基于協(xié)整向量自回歸的分析[J];金融研究;2014年12期

5 朱軍;;我國財政政策和貨幣政策規(guī)則選擇與搭配研究[J];廣東財經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報;2014年04期

6 王雪標;王新翠;周生寶;姜鳳利;;貨幣財政政策風(fēng)險組合與影響效果[J];系統(tǒng)工程理論與實踐;2014年01期

7 賈俊雪;郭慶旺;;財政支出類型、財政政策作用機理與最優(yōu)財政貨幣政策規(guī)則[J];世界經(jīng)濟;2012年11期

8 張海濤;;我國1978～1995年月度M2缺失數(shù)據(jù)的估算方法[J];北方經(jīng)濟;2012年20期

9 張成思;;通貨膨脹、經(jīng)濟增長與貨幣供應(yīng):回歸貨幣主義?[J];世界經(jīng)濟;2012年08期

10 李曉玲;;基于協(xié)整理論貨幣供應(yīng)量與經(jīng)濟增長、物價水平關(guān)系研究[J];經(jīng)濟問題;2012年03期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 干霖;財政貨幣政策組合對中國經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定增長影響的實證研究[D];江西財經(jīng)大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號：1996665