本文選題：政府債務(wù) + 財(cái)政赤字�。� 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：2008年全球金融危機(jī)成為發(fā)達(dá)國家債務(wù)危機(jī)的導(dǎo)火索，希臘首先倒下，愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、意大利及西班牙也緊隨其后深陷危機(jī)，發(fā)達(dá)國家財(cái)政的脆弱性一覽無遺，政府債務(wù)問題廣受關(guān)注。雖然美國沒有同歐元區(qū)國家一樣爆發(fā)債務(wù)危機(jī)，但美國政府債務(wù)也屢創(chuàng)新高，債務(wù)上限頻繁調(diào)整，債務(wù)紛爭愈演愈烈，導(dǎo)致外界擔(dān)憂與日俱增。隨著嬰兒潮一代進(jìn)入退休年齡，美國財(cái)政支出將承受巨大壓力，構(gòu)成政府債務(wù)發(fā)展的長期挑戰(zhàn)。鑒于美國強(qiáng)大的國際地位，美國政府債務(wù)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)如何，能否可持續(xù)發(fā)展，將做如何調(diào)整，這些問題都將對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和中國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重大影響，這也正是本文試圖解答的問題。 本文在開放宏觀的視角下，運(yùn)用理論與實(shí)證、歷史與比較的分析方法，在分析美國政府債務(wù)演進(jìn)的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)對美國政府債務(wù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和可持續(xù)性進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究，試圖揭示美國債務(wù)未來發(fā)展方向，并對債務(wù)調(diào)整及其溢出影響進(jìn)行了深入剖析。 全文共分八章。 第一章緒論。系統(tǒng)介紹了選題背景和意義，在梳理國內(nèi)外關(guān)于債務(wù)理論和美國政府債務(wù)問題研究文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了論文的研究方法、創(chuàng)新之處以及論文框架。 第二章政府債務(wù)研究的理論框架。首先分析了債務(wù)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論，包括降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度、通貨膨脹壓力增大以及發(fā)生債務(wù)危機(jī)的可能，隨后詳細(xì)闡述了債務(wù)可持續(xù)性的理論即政府預(yù)算約束理論，最后分析了政府債務(wù)的溢出效應(yīng)。 第三章美國政府債務(wù)的歷史演進(jìn)。本章主要結(jié)合美國1790-2013年的長時(shí)段債務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)分析了美國政府債務(wù)變化與經(jīng)濟(jì)思想之間的關(guān)系，重點(diǎn)分析了新自由主義階段美國政府債務(wù)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張的趨勢，特別是金融危機(jī)以來美國政府債務(wù)高漲的特點(diǎn)，為美國政府債務(wù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與可持續(xù)性研究提供重要背景和現(xiàn)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。 第四章新世紀(jì)以來美國政府債務(wù)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本章分析了新世紀(jì)以來美國政府債務(wù)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張的原因，進(jìn)一步從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、通貨膨脹和債務(wù)危機(jī)三方面分析了債務(wù)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張給美國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，同時(shí)也將影響美元的國際貨幣地位并拖累世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。 第五章美國政府債務(wù)可持續(xù)性的影響因素。以政府預(yù)算約束理論為基礎(chǔ)，從財(cái)政基本赤字、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和國際經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境三方面分析了影響美國政府債務(wù)可持續(xù)性的因素。 第六章美國政府債務(wù)可持續(xù)性的實(shí)證分析。本章主要從兩個(gè)方面對美國政府債務(wù)的可持續(xù)性進(jìn)行考察，一方面是基于政府預(yù)算約束理論，構(gòu)建財(cái)政反應(yīng)函數(shù)對美國政府債務(wù)的可持續(xù)性進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)；另一方面是基于對各影響因素分析的基礎(chǔ)上，對未來美國政府債務(wù)走勢進(jìn)行預(yù)測。 第七章美國政府債務(wù)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的調(diào)整與溢出影響。美國若想保證債務(wù)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，必然要對高額債務(wù)進(jìn)行調(diào)整，采取的措施主要包括財(cái)政整頓、金融抑制以及穩(wěn)固美元的貨幣地位，這些調(diào)整措施也將通過貿(mào)易、金融和價(jià)格三種渠道對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生溢出影響。 第八章美國政府債務(wù)與中國。本章在分析中國持有美國政府債務(wù)情況的基礎(chǔ)上，重點(diǎn)闡述了美國政府債務(wù)的調(diào)整對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響并提出了相關(guān)建議。 通過研究，本文得出以下結(jié)論： 首先，美國政府債務(wù)從上世紀(jì)80年代開始擴(kuò)張，進(jìn)入新世紀(jì)后迅速膨脹，國際金融危機(jī)之后更是屢創(chuàng)新高。從表面上看，財(cái)政赤字?jǐn)U大、經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下滑、美元貨幣地位導(dǎo)致了債務(wù)快速增長，但實(shí)質(zhì)上是美國執(zhí)政兩黨理念的差異，更是各自秉承不同經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)思想所致。分析來看，美國政府債務(wù)仍將持續(xù)高漲，這不僅給美國帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下降、通貨膨脹上升甚至爆發(fā)債務(wù)危機(jī)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而且將深刻影響美元的國際貨幣地位，拖累世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。 其次，以政府預(yù)算約束理論為基礎(chǔ)，通過運(yùn)用財(cái)政反應(yīng)函數(shù)對美國政府債務(wù)可持續(xù)性進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，揭示出美國政府債務(wù)可以持續(xù)發(fā)展，但考慮到失業(yè)因素，財(cái)政政策的調(diào)整效果將受影響，，也就是說債務(wù)的持續(xù)性將減弱。進(jìn)一步來看，對美國債務(wù)未來走勢的預(yù)測也可發(fā)現(xiàn)債務(wù)發(fā)展前景不容樂觀，這就意味著若想保證債務(wù)的可持續(xù)性，美國不僅要進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的財(cái)政政策調(diào)整，而且要采取包括金融抑制、美元貶值在內(nèi)的多種舉措。 最后，作為全球最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，美國財(cái)政貨幣政策將對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重大溢出影響。美國持續(xù)的財(cái)政整頓和美元貶值將通過貿(mào)易渠道降低其他國家出口，進(jìn)而影響各國產(chǎn)出；美國的金融抑制會(huì)通過金融渠道減少各國外匯儲(chǔ)備、引發(fā)資本頻繁流動(dòng)以及挑戰(zhàn)其他國家貨幣政策，形成更廣泛的“金融抑制”；美元貶值還可以通過價(jià)格渠道將通貨膨脹輸出到其他國家，尤其是新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體。同樣，美國政府債務(wù)的調(diào)整也將對中國的貿(mào)易、外匯儲(chǔ)備、資本流動(dòng)、貨幣政策等方面產(chǎn)生重要影響，鑒于此，中國政府更應(yīng)及時(shí)進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，降低美國政府債務(wù)調(diào)整帶來的損失。
[Abstract]:In 2008 , the global financial crisis became the fuse of the developed country ' s debt crisis . Greece first fell down , Ireland , Portugal , Italy and Spain followed the crisis , and the financial fragility of the developed countries was clear , and the government ' s debt problem was widely watched . While the United States didn ' t have the same debt crisis as the euro zone countries , the U.S . government ' s fiscal spending will bear huge pressure to make up the long - term challenge of government debt development . Given the strong international status of the United States , how the risk of continuing expansion of the U.S . government debt , and how to adjust it will have a major impact on the world economy and the Chinese economy , which is the problem that this article is trying to answer .

Based on the analysis of the American government ' s debt evolution , this paper makes an empirical study on the risk and sustainability of U.S . government debt based on the analysis of the evolution of U.S . government debt .

The full text is divided into eight chapters .

The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the thesis . On the basis of combing domestic and foreign literatures about debt theory and government debt problem , this paper puts forward the research methods , innovations and the framework of the thesis .

Chapter 2 The theoretical framework of government debt research . Firstly , the risk theory of debt sustainability is analyzed , including the reduction of economic growth rate , the increase of inflationary pressure and the possibility of debt crisis , then the theory of debt sustainability , the government budget constraint theory , is elaborated . Finally , the spillover effect of government debt is analyzed .

In chapter 3 , the historical evolution of U.S . government debt is analyzed . This chapter mainly analyzes the relationship between U.S . government debt change and economic thought in combination with the long period debt of U.S . 1790 - 2013 , focusing on the trend of continuing expansion of U.S . government debt in the new liberalism stage , especially since the financial crisis , which provides an important background and realistic basis for the study of government debt risk and sustainability .

Chapter four analyzes the causes of the continued expansion of the U.S . government ' s debt since the new century . This chapter analyzes the causes of the continued expansion of the U.S . government ' s debt since the new century , further analyzes the risks associated with the continued expansion of the debt to the U.S . economy from three aspects of economic growth , inflation and debt crisis , and will also affect the international monetary status of the United States dollar and drag the world economic growth .

The fifth chapter analyzes the factors that affect the debt sustainability of the U.S . government on the basis of government budget constraint theory , from three aspects of fiscal basic deficit , economic growth and international economic environment .

Chapter 6 : An empirical analysis of the debt sustainability of the U.S . government . This chapter mainly studies the sustainability of U.S . government debt from two aspects , on the one hand , it is based on the theory of government budget constraints , and constructs the financial response function to empirically test the sustainability of government debt .
On the other hand , based on the analysis of the influencing factors , the future U.S . government debt trend is predicted .

Chapter 7 The adjustment and spill - over effect of the U.S . government ' s debt sustainability . The United States wants to make adjustments to the high debt if it wants to ensure the sustainable development of the debt . The measures taken include fiscal consolidation , financial repression and a solid dollar monetary status , which will also have a spillover effect on the world economy through three channels of trade , finance and price .

Chapter 8 U.S . government debt and China . On the basis of analyzing China ' s government debt situation , this chapter focuses on the adjustment of U.S . government debt to China ' s economy and puts forward some suggestions .

Through the study , the following conclusions are drawn :

First of all , the U.S . government debt began to expand from the 1980s to expand rapidly after entering the new century . As a result , the financial deficit widened and the economic growth slipped . The dollar ' s currency status led to the rapid growth of the debt , but in essence , the U.S . government debt will continue to rise , which not only brings about a decline in economic growth , inflation and even the risk of a debt crisis , but it will profoundly affect the international monetary status of the United States dollar and drag the world ' s economic growth .

Secondly , based on the theory of government budget constraints , the financial response function is used to empirically test the debt sustainability of the U.S . government , which reveals that the debt sustainability of the U.S . government can be sustained . However , considering the factors of unemployment , the adjustment effect of fiscal policy will be affected , that is to say , the sustainability of the debt will be reduced .

Finally , as the world ' s largest economy , fiscal policy in the United States will have a major spillover effect on the world economy . The continued fiscal consolidation and depreciation of the United States will reduce the export of other countries through trade channels , thereby affecting national output ;
Financial repression in the United States will reduce foreign exchange reserves through financial channels , trigger frequent capital flows and challenge other countries ' monetary policy to form broader " financial repression " ;
The depreciation of the United States dollar can also export inflation to other countries , particularly emerging economies , through price channels . Similarly , the adjustment of U.S . government debt will have an important impact on China ' s trade , foreign exchange reserves , capital flows , monetary policy , etc . In view of this , the Chinese government should make timely economic restructuring and reduce the loss of government debt restructuring .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F817.12

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