本文選題：財(cái)政收支 + 因果關(guān)系��； 參考：《地方財(cái)政研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：通過選用1950年-2015年之間財(cái)政收支時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)用Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正模型和Granger因果檢驗(yàn)對(duì)財(cái)政決算收入與決算支出之間的因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析,得出財(cái)政收支之間存在長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系且收入引起支出,這與中國(guó)以收定支的預(yù)算編制原則相適應(yīng)。為推進(jìn)中國(guó)財(cái)政收支預(yù)算編制更加科學(xué)合理,本研究以差分序列的自回歸移動(dòng)平均模型為基礎(chǔ),運(yùn)用最小二乘回歸方法擬合方程,選擇對(duì)財(cái)政收入進(jìn)行分析預(yù)測(cè),尋求最優(yōu)模型并提供較準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)效果,為財(cái)政預(yù)算從約束性轉(zhuǎn)向預(yù)期性編制,建立跨年度預(yù)算平衡提供參考依據(jù);未來財(cái)政收入增速趨緩的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)論表明中國(guó)以民生為導(dǎo)向的公共財(cái)政建設(shè)正在發(fā)生積極作用。
[Abstract]:By selecting the time series data of fiscal revenue and expenditure between 1950 and 2015, using Johansen cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the causal relationship between revenue and expenditure. It is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between revenue and expenditure and that income causes expenditure, which is in line with the principle of budgeting for revenue and expenditure in China. In order to promote the development of China's budget for fiscal revenue and expenditure, based on the moving average model of autoregressive regression of difference series, the least square regression method is used to fit the equation, and the financial revenue is analyzed and forecasted. Seeking the best model and providing more accurate forecast effect, providing the reference basis for the fiscal budget to change from the binding nature to the expected preparation, and to establish the cross-annual budget balance; The forecast conclusion that the future fiscal revenue growth will slow down indicates that the construction of public finance based on the people's livelihood is playing a positive role in China.
【作者單位】： 北京師范大學(xué);
【基金】：北京市支持中央在京高校共建“公共管理重點(diǎn)學(xué)科建設(shè)”項(xiàng)目(2015-2016)
【分類號(hào)】：F812.4

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本文編號(hào)：1931805