本文選題：地方債 + 地方債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)�。� 參考：《中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年03期

【摘要】：2014年以來(lái),經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大,為保增長(zhǎng),地方政府新增融資規(guī)模加大,加上存量債務(wù),債務(wù)壓力加大,可能導(dǎo)致部分地方財(cái)政信用質(zhì)量下降。本文通過(guò)構(gòu)建地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,采用線性加權(quán)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,通過(guò)AHP方法確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重和功效系數(shù)法為指標(biāo)打分,最后確定綜合分值以評(píng)價(jià)地方債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并進(jìn)行預(yù)警。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明2012年以來(lái),部分省份債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)呈增大的趨勢(shì)。各省份地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加原因不盡相同,如貴州、青海、陜西、內(nèi)蒙古主要原因是債務(wù)增長(zhǎng)速度快、債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)重;而遼寧、山西、吉林、黑龍江則主要是由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)下行幅度較大導(dǎo)致公共財(cái)政預(yù)算收入大幅下滑所致。研究結(jié)論為加強(qiáng)對(duì)各省份債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)科學(xué)評(píng)估、制定合理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, with increased local government financing to keep growth, and increased debt pressure on the stock of debt, which could lead to a decline in the credit quality of some local finances. In this paper, the local government debt risk early warning index system is constructed, the linear weighted comprehensive evaluation model is adopted, and the index weight and efficacy coefficient method are determined by AHP method. Finally determine the comprehensive score to evaluate the risk of local debt and early warning. The empirical results show that the debt risk of some provinces has been increasing since 2012. The reasons for increasing the debt risk of local governments in various provinces are different. For example, Guizhou, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are mainly due to the rapid growth of debt and the heavy debt burden, while Liaoning, Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang is mainly due to the decline in economic growth, leading to a sharp decline in public budget revenue. The conclusion provides a scientific basis for strengthening the monitoring of debt risk, evaluating credit risk scientifically and making reasonable risk prevention measures.
【作者單位】： 北京交通大學(xué)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)安全研究院;山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)財(cái)務(wù)處;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F812.5

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