發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-08 12:45

  本文選題：格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn) + 擠出效應(yīng)��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：國債理論最初是從西方發(fā)展而來,經(jīng)過資本主義的渲染而逐漸興盛。從17世紀(jì)開始,西方就開始對(duì)國債理論進(jìn)行研究,但是直到20世紀(jì)30年代的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),西方才認(rèn)識(shí)到國債可以作為財(cái)政政策的一種工具,通過擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策擺脫經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。從那時(shí)起,國債伴隨著凱恩斯干預(yù)主義的發(fā)展而日漸受到西方政府的親睞,把它作為促進(jìn)和穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)的工具。而國債在我國的歷史并不悠久,在1950年,我國首次發(fā)行“人民勝利折實(shí)公債”,在1954年到1958年間,又發(fā)行了“國家建設(shè)公債”。但是之后的年度里,我國處于無國債時(shí)期。直到1981年,我國隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革,才又重新開始發(fā)行國債,此時(shí)的國債只是作為彌補(bǔ)財(cái)政收入的手段,它的作用并未被積極看待。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)如火如荼的開展,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),社會(huì)需求,貨幣信貸等急劇擴(kuò)張,財(cái)政赤字不斷擴(kuò)大,此時(shí)出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱,通貨膨脹的現(xiàn)象。1993年之后,我國陸續(xù)出臺(tái)了《中國人民銀行法》和《預(yù)算法》來約束央行的透支行為,規(guī)定財(cái)政赤字不得通過貨幣發(fā)行來彌補(bǔ),國債發(fā)行額也隨之攀升。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),從1998年到2007年這10年間,我國累計(jì)發(fā)行長期建設(shè)國債11000億元。這些國債的投入方向主要有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),關(guān)鍵技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,科教文衛(wèi)等領(lǐng)域,為我國的社會(huì)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)鋪平了道路。2008年,美國次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā),我國經(jīng)濟(jì)受此影響,出現(xiàn)了衰退。為了重振經(jīng)濟(jì),我國政府實(shí)行了積極的財(cái)政政策,并投入四萬億救市。這部分資金除了來自中央和地方的預(yù)算內(nèi)財(cái)政收入外,還有就是通過發(fā)行國債來彌補(bǔ)的。但是這樣大規(guī)模的國債增長也引起了學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)于國債額度管理以及可持續(xù)性的關(guān)注。 在這樣的大背景下,學(xué)術(shù)界以及決策部門開始關(guān)心以下問題：國債是否會(huì)引發(fā)財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；國債的發(fā)行對(duì)利率的影響是怎樣的,會(huì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)對(duì)民間消費(fèi)與投資的擠出效應(yīng)；當(dāng)期的國債額度是否會(huì)成為后代人的負(fù)擔(dān)；國債的使用到底對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是怎樣的?是促進(jìn)其發(fā)展還是抑制了它的發(fā)展等諸如此類的問題需要理論與實(shí)務(wù)界悉心研究,得出符合實(shí)際情況的結(jié)論,并提出有針對(duì)性的政策建議。本文便是在這樣的背景下開始了國債問題的研究。 本文的研究意義在于以下幾點(diǎn)： 首先,從理論意義上來說,公共財(cái)政的作用就是維護(hù)國家安全,保障國家經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展以及促進(jìn)社會(huì)公平。市場(chǎng)自身存在失靈的可能,而財(cái)政的職能就是彌補(bǔ)市場(chǎng)的失靈。由于市場(chǎng)沒有自行趨向經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的機(jī)制,因此客觀上需要政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)節(jié)。而國家在行使職責(zé)時(shí),需要大量的資金,這些資金主要來源于財(cái)政收入。如果政府職能不斷擴(kuò)大,那么對(duì)資金的需求將繼續(xù)增加,增長的財(cái)政需求就會(huì)出現(xiàn)財(cái)政赤字。彌補(bǔ)財(cái)政赤字的方式可以通過增加稅收,增發(fā)貨幣或者發(fā)行國債。但是,稅收的增長應(yīng)該和國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r相一致,尤其在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的時(shí)期,更沒有增加稅收的空間,如果是通過增發(fā)貨幣來彌補(bǔ)赤字,又會(huì)引起通貨膨脹。而通過發(fā)行國債來彌補(bǔ)赤字,只是轉(zhuǎn)移了社會(huì)資金的使用權(quán),既不會(huì)使納稅人感到稅收壓力,也不會(huì)引起貨幣量的激增。在經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣時(shí),通過國債聚集來的資金可以作為積極財(cái)政政策的工具,啟動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí),國債可以改變投入側(cè)重點(diǎn),作用于產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)和經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)性發(fā)展。既然國債成為了財(cái)政收入的一項(xiàng)重要來源,那么通過研究國債對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的效應(yīng)以及作用機(jī)制,就可以為財(cái)政理論的進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)展和豐富提供依據(jù),也為國債的管理政策提出建議。 其次,從現(xiàn)實(shí)意義上來說,自從1981年我國實(shí)行經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革,財(cái)政開始出現(xiàn)赤字,政府開始通過發(fā)行國債來彌補(bǔ)赤字。隨后,1998年的亞洲金融危機(jī),使我國經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)衰退,內(nèi)需嚴(yán)重不足。為了刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,政府采取了積極的財(cái)政政策,有效地抑制了經(jīng)濟(jì)的繼續(xù)下滑,并且?guī)?dòng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展。2008年,由美國次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)爆發(fā),我國經(jīng)濟(jì)再次受到?jīng)_擊,經(jīng)濟(jì)的萎靡急需政府使用積極財(cái)政政策來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。國債再次成為理論與實(shí)務(wù)界關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)。在這種背景下,研究國債對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的效應(yīng)將顯示出重大的實(shí)際意義。這種意義又體現(xiàn)在,找到國債與經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的作用機(jī)制,指導(dǎo)國債的投向；弄清楚最佳國債規(guī)模,使國債的使用效率達(dá)到最高；以我國的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,了解我國國債的現(xiàn)行狀況,找到我國國債進(jìn)一步改進(jìn)的有效途徑,使其更好地為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整做出貢獻(xiàn)。 本文的研究思路大致是以“理論分析”——“實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)”——“政策建議”的思路進(jìn)行的。首先在介紹國債概念的基礎(chǔ)之上,區(qū)分了國債與公債之間的概念差別,并介紹了國債與稅收之間的關(guān)系,以此來說明國債和稅收同為財(cái)政收入手段之間的不同。接下來,本文重點(diǎn)介紹了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論的相關(guān)知識(shí)以及我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相關(guān)因素分析,意圖從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的因素分析中找到國債與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的間接關(guān)系,也為后文研究國債與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素之間的關(guān)系打下基礎(chǔ)。隨后,本文研究了國債對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用機(jī)制,通過分析這種機(jī)制,目的是找到國債是怎樣影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的,也為后文的實(shí)證研究奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。 本文的結(jié)構(gòu)框架如下： 第一節(jié)是緒論,主要介紹選題的背景以及研究的意義,以及文本的創(chuàng)新與不足之處,文章的寫作方法以及國內(nèi)外關(guān)于國債與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的文獻(xiàn)綜述。 第二節(jié)是國債概念的介紹以及國內(nèi)外國債發(fā)展的歷史。 第三節(jié)是本文理論的核心部分,介紹了國債對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用機(jī)制。分別從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素的分析,財(cái)政支出理論的分析,國債發(fā)行對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響以及國債投入對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行論述,其中國債投入對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響又具體分為對(duì)投資、消費(fèi)、勞動(dòng)力、技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)以及對(duì)稅收的平滑作用來闡述。這樣就達(dá)到了層層遞進(jìn),抽絲剝繭的效果,最終還原國債與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的真正作用機(jī)制。 第四節(jié)是本文的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)部分,通過建立GDP、投資、消費(fèi)、人力資本以及國債之間的向量自回歸模型,檢驗(yàn)了我國國債對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的直接效果。 第五節(jié)本文的最后部分是政策建議,通過上文的分析,最后總結(jié)出筆者對(duì)于我國國債相關(guān)問題的建議。 本文的不足之處主要體現(xiàn)在兩點(diǎn)：一是實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)部分沒有做出國債對(duì)利率影響的分析。二是沒有探討國債的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。針對(duì)我國國債目前的水平,本文沒有深入研究我國國債是否存在財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文的寫作方法為：一、理論研究結(jié)合實(shí)證研究。本文綜合了財(cái)政學(xué)、金融學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長等相關(guān)理論,并且使用了多項(xiàng)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法,如VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù),格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)等,用我國的具體數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)國債的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。二、實(shí)證研究結(jié)合規(guī)范研究。本文實(shí)證研究得出了我國國債與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系,并在此結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了針對(duì)我國國情的政策建議。三、比較研究。在理論分析部分,本文從國外國債理論的相關(guān)研究出發(fā),結(jié)合我國具體情況,對(duì)比研究了國債在中外兩地的發(fā)展演變,吸收借鑒國外的先進(jìn)理論與經(jīng)驗(yàn)。
[Abstract]:The theory of national debt was first developed from the West and flourished through the rendering of capitalism. Since seventeenth Century, the West began to study the theory of national debt. But until the global economic crisis in 1930s, the West realized that the Treasury bonds could be used as a tool for fiscal policy and get rid of the expansionary fiscal policy. From then on, with the development of Keynes's intervention, the national debt was increasingly favored by the western government as a tool for promoting and stabilizing the economy. The national debt was not long in China's history. In 1950, China issued the "people's victory in the public debt" for the first time, and from 1954 to 1958, it issued the "national construction". But in the following year, China was in the period of no national debt. Until 1981, China began to issue treasury bonds again with the reform of the economic system. At this time, the national debt was only used as a means to make up for the financial income. Its role was not considered actively. With the development of the economy, infrastructure construction and social needs. With the rapid expansion of money and credit and the expansion of the fiscal deficit, the phenomenon of serious economic overheating and inflation has occurred at this time. After.1993 years, China has introduced the people's Bank of China Law and the budget law to restrain the overdraft of the central bank, which stipulates that the fiscal deficit will not be made up by the currency issue, and the issuance of national debt is also rising. Statistics, in the 10 years from 1998 to 2007, China has issued a cumulative total of 11000 billion yuan of long-term construction treasury bonds. The investment direction of these treasury bonds mainly includes infrastructure construction, key technological innovation, science and education, culture and health, etc., which paved the way for the construction of our country's socialist economy in.2008 years, the American subprime crisis broke out, and the economy of our country was affected by this effect. In order to revive the economy, our government has implemented a positive fiscal policy and put into the four trillion bailout. This part of the fund is made up of the Treasury bonds issued by the central and local budgets, but also by issuing treasury bonds. Sustainability concerns.
In this context, the academia and the decision-making departments begin to care about the following issues: whether the Treasury bonds will cause financial risks; what is the effect of the issuance of national debt on interest rates and whether there will be an extrude effect on private consumption and investment; whether the current amount of national debt will become a burden for future generations; the use of national debt is exactly right. What is the influence of the economy? Is it to promote its development or to restrain its development and so on, such as it needs to be studied in theory and practice, draw conclusions that conform to the actual situation, and put forward pertinent policy suggestions. This paper begins with the study of the issue of national debt.
The significance of this study lies in the following points:
First, from the theoretical point of view, the role of public finance is to safeguard national security, ensure the smooth development of the state economy and promote social fairness. The market itself is out of order, and the function of the finance is to make up for the failure of the market. If the government functions constantly, the demand for funds will continue to increase, and the financial demand for growth will appear in the financial deficit. The way to make up the deficit can be made by increasing tax revenue, issuing money or sending it. However, the growth of the tax should be consistent with the state's economic development, especially in the period of economic recession, not to increase the space for tax revenue. If it is to make up the deficit by adding money to make up the deficit, it will cause inflation. The taxpayers feel that the tax pressure does not cause a surge in the amount of money. In the economic downturn, the funds gathered through the Treasury bonds can be used as a tool for active fiscal policy to start economic development. In the economic boom, the national debt can change the focus of investment and play a role in the upgrading of the industry and the sustainable development of the economy. Since the national debt has become a wealth. As an important source of political income, the study of the effect of national debt on the economy and its mechanism of action can provide a basis for further expansion and enrichment of financial theory, and also provide suggestions for the management policy of national debt.
Secondly, in practical sense, since the economic system reform was implemented in China in 1981, the fiscal deficit was beginning to appear, and the government began to make up the deficit by issuing treasury bonds. Then, the Asian financial crisis in 1998 resulted in the recession of our economy and the serious shortage of domestic demand. In order to stimulate the economic growth, the government has adopted a positive fiscal policy, which is effective. It has suppressed the continuing decline of the economy and led to the healthy development of the economy in.2008 years. The global economic crisis caused by the United States subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the economy of our country was once again hit and the economy was in urgent need of the government to use the active fiscal policy to stimulate the economic growth. The government bonds again became the focus of the theoretical and practical circles. In the background, it is of great practical significance to study the effect of national debt on the economy. This significance is also embodied in finding the mechanism between national debt and economy, guiding the investment of national debt, making clear the scale of the best national debt, making the use efficiency of the national debt to the highest; taking the actual data of our country as the basis, carrying out empirical research and understanding our country The current situation of the national debt is to find an effective way to further improve our national debt, so as to make better contribution to China's economic development and structural adjustment.
The idea of this paper is mainly based on the idea of "theoretical analysis" - "empirical test" - "policy suggestion". First, on the basis of introducing the concept of national debt, it distinguishes the conceptual difference between national debt and public debt, and introduces the relationship between national debt and tax, in order to show that the national debt and tax are the same as the fiscal revenue. Then, this paper focuses on the related knowledge of the economic growth theory and the analysis of the related factors of economic growth in China. It is intended to find the indirect relationship between the national debt and economic growth from the analysis of the factors of economic growth, and to lay a foundation for the relationship between the national debt and the economic growth factors in the later study. This paper studies the mechanism of the effect of national debt on economic growth. Through the analysis of this mechanism, the purpose is to find out how the national debt is to affect economic growth, and to lay a theoretical foundation for the empirical study of the latter.
The structural framework of this article is as follows:
The first section is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background of the topic and the significance of the research, the innovation and deficiency of the text, the writing method of the article and the literature review on the national and foreign debt and economic growth at home and abroad.
The second section introduces the concept of national debt and the history of domestic foreign debt development.
The third section, the core of the theory, introduces the mechanism of the effect of national debt on economic growth, including the analysis of the factors of economic growth, the analysis of the theory of fiscal expenditure, the impact of the issuance of national debt on the economy and the impact of the investment of national debt on the economy. The impact of the investment of Chinese debt on the economy is also specifically divided into the investment of the investment. Capital, consumption, labor, technology, economic structure, and the smooth effect of tax on taxation. This has achieved the effect of progressive progressive, unyielding and ultimately reducing the real mechanism between national debt and economic growth.
The fourth section is the empirical test part of this paper. By establishing the vector autoregressive model between GDP, investment, consumption, human capital and national debt, the direct effect of China's national debt on economic growth is tested.
The fifth section, the last part of this paper, is policy recommendations. Through the above analysis, I finally summarize the author's suggestions on the related issues of China's national debt.
The inadequacies of this paper are mainly reflected in two points: first, the empirical test part does not make an analysis of the effect of national debt on the interest rate. Two is the risk of no discussion of the national debt.
The writing methods of this paper are: first, theoretical research combined with empirical research. This paper combines the theories of finance, finance, economic growth and so on, and uses a number of econometrics methods, such as VAR model, impulse response function, Grainger causality test and so on. The economic effect of national debt is empirically analyzed with the specific data of our country. Two, In this paper, the relationship between national debt and economic growth is obtained. On the basis of this conclusion, the paper puts forward the policy suggestions for China's national conditions. Three, comparative study. In the theoretical analysis part, this article from the relevant research on foreign debt theory, combined with the specific situation of our country, compared the national debt research. The development and evolution of China and foreign countries draw on the advanced theories and experiences from other countries.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5;F124.1

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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