本文選題：非凱恩斯效應(yīng) + 財政支出��； 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：日本政府自20世紀(jì)90年代以來為了促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,主要是運用了凱恩斯主義理論,日本政府企圖使用刺激性的財政政策促使本國經(jīng)濟(jì)能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)短期快速發(fā)展,在實施了許多以公共事業(yè)支出為核心的擴(kuò)張性的財政政策同時,還采取了擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策來配合財政政策的落實,例如增加貨幣的供應(yīng)量以及降低存貸款利率水平等。宮澤喜一內(nèi)閣在1992年8月就首次實施了“綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)對策”,其規(guī)模達(dá)到了10.7兆日元,之后的日本歷屆政府紛紛效仿宮澤喜一內(nèi)閣。到目前為止,日本政府先后共推出了近20次類似的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激政策,日本政府的財政收支規(guī)模達(dá)到了驚人的200兆日元左右。進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來,歷屆政府都采取了相應(yīng)的財政政策和貨幣政策以刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,但是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率一直在1%左右徘徊,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)失去了25年。并不否認(rèn),日本政府實施的擴(kuò)張性財政政策對于經(jīng)濟(jì)的反周期調(diào)節(jié)起到了至關(guān)重要的作用,使得日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的萎縮能夠在一定程度上得到抑制。然而,日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)和財政之間并沒有在經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)低迷的情況下出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長拉動財政與財政增長拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的良好的循環(huán),日本最終也不得不面臨財政困境與經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷的雙重困境。日本政府財政健全的實現(xiàn)在人口老齡化加劇和長期的低迷經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的條件下并不被人們所看好。這主要是因為日本政府采用了錯誤的指導(dǎo)理論以及采取了許多不合理的政策工具。本文首先對日本政府自20世紀(jì)90年代以來實施的財政政策作了簡要的梳理,然后分析了日本政府財政收支的變化情況和政府財政對債務(wù)的以來依賴,日本政府債務(wù)余額的攀升加劇了財政危機的困境。最后利用模型對日本政府的財政政策的非凱恩斯效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實證分析,通過實證分析可以得出非凱恩斯效應(yīng)在長期內(nèi)是存在的,政府實施的擴(kuò)張政策阻礙了民間消費、民間投資和進(jìn)出口的增長。日本政府的財政政策之所以存在非凱恩斯效應(yīng),是有著深刻原因的,包括：公共投資結(jié)構(gòu)僵化、未來經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期、市場需求潛力下降、日元升值等。希望對日本財政政策效果的分析,能夠?qū)χ袊呢斦叩倪\用有一定的啟示作用。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, in order to promote economic development, the Japanese government has mainly used Keynesian theory. The Japanese government has attempted to use stimulative fiscal policies to promote the rapid development of its economy in the short term. At the same time, expansionary monetary policy has been adopted to coordinate with the implementation of fiscal policy, such as increasing the money supply and lowering the interest rate of deposit and loan. Miyazawa Kiichi's cabinet first implemented a "comprehensive economic response" in August 1992, with a scale of 10.7 trillion yen, followed by successive Japanese governments following Mr. Miyazawa Kiichi's cabinet. So far, the Japanese government has launched nearly 20 similar stimulus policies, the government's fiscal revenue and expenditure has reached an astonishing size of about 200 trillion yen. Since the beginning of the 21st century, successive governments have adopted corresponding fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth, but the economic growth rate has been hovering around 1%, and the Japanese economy has lost its economy for 25 years. It is not denied that the expansionary fiscal policy implemented by the Japanese government has played a vital role in countercyclical adjustment of the economy, so that the contraction of the Japanese economy can be restrained to a certain extent. However, there has not been a good cycle between economic growth and fiscal growth in Japan when the economy is still in the doldrums. In the end, Japan also had to face the dual dilemma of fiscal distress and economic downturn. The realization of the Japanese government's fiscal soundness is not appreciated under the condition of the aging population and the long period of sluggish economic growth. This is mainly because the Japanese government has adopted the wrong guiding theory and many unreasonable policy tools. This paper first makes a brief analysis of the fiscal policies implemented by the Japanese government since the 1990s, and then analyzes the changes in the Japanese government's fiscal revenue and expenditure and its dependence on debt. The rising balance of Japanese government debt has exacerbated the financial crisis. Finally, using the model to analyze the non-Keynesian effect of the Japanese government's fiscal policy, it can be concluded that the non-Keynesian effect exists in the long run, and the government's expansionary policy hinders private consumption. Private investment and growth in imports and exports. There are profound reasons for the non-Keynesian effect in the Japanese government's fiscal policy, including the rigid structure of public investment, future economic expectations, declining market demand potential, and the appreciation of the yen. It is hoped that the analysis of the effect of Japanese fiscal policy can enlighten the application of Chinese government's fiscal policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F813.13

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