本文選題：地方政府 + 地方政府性債務(wù)　； 參考：《廣西大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：美國金融危機(jī)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成較大影響,近幾年歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)頻現(xiàn),以及我國持續(xù)實(shí)施積極的財(cái)政政策,中央與地方政府投入大量配套資金拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì),造成我國地方政府性債務(wù)增速驚人。面對(duì)日益增長的地方政府性債務(wù)規(guī)模,人們產(chǎn)生對(duì)我國地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可控性的擔(dān)憂,甚至部分學(xué)者提出我國地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)失控,隨時(shí)可能爆發(fā)危機(jī)。因此,加快建立地方政府性債務(wù)管理體制,將地方政府發(fā)債真正全面納入預(yù)算與監(jiān)管范疇勢(shì)在必行。 由于過去我國對(duì)地方政府發(fā)債規(guī)模統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑不一,本文首先對(duì)地方政府性債務(wù)的概念進(jìn)行界定,并對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行梳理,進(jìn)而分析我國地方政府發(fā)債現(xiàn)狀,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國地方政府性債務(wù)總量基本可控,但內(nèi)在結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜,主要表現(xiàn)在：負(fù)有償還責(zé)任債務(wù)增長過快；部分地區(qū)債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)重；對(duì)土地收入依賴較重；舉債過程依然存在諸多違規(guī)行為。這些問題的出現(xiàn)歸結(jié)于制度和管理兩層面,制度因素在于分稅體制過程中中央與地方政府財(cái)權(quán)事權(quán)不匹配,管理因素則是政府舉債過程管理制度建設(shè)落后,導(dǎo)致違規(guī)現(xiàn)象普遍,債務(wù)利用率低。 本文還試圖從定量分析角度提出規(guī)范我國地方政府性債務(wù)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的指標(biāo)控制體系,利用企業(yè)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測(cè)量工具KMV模型測(cè)度地方政府債務(wù)違約概率,預(yù)測(cè)我國未來地方政府性債務(wù)狀況,并提出規(guī)范地方政府發(fā)債的合理規(guī)模。最后,在總結(jié)國際上多國地方政府發(fā)債經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,針對(duì)于我國地方政府性債務(wù)的具體情況,提出完善地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的體制制度建設(shè)總思路,并從事前、事中以及事后三階段提出規(guī)范和約束我國地方政府發(fā)債的具體措施與優(yōu)化建議。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis in the United States has had a great impact on the global economy. In recent years, the European debt crisis has occurred frequently, as well as our country has continued to implement active fiscal policies, and the central and local governments have invested a large amount of supporting funds to stimulate the economy. Cause our country local government debt growth rate is astonishing. In the face of the increasing scale of local government debt, people worry about the controllability of the risk of local government debt in China. Some scholars even suggest that the risk of local government debt is out of control, and a crisis may break out at any time. Therefore, it is imperative to speed up the establishment of local government debt management system and bring local government debt issue into budget and supervision. Because the statistics of local government bond issuance scale in the past are different, this paper firstly defines the concept of local government debt, combs the related theory of local government debt risk, and then analyzes the present situation of local government debt issuance in China. It is found that the total amount of local government debt in China is basically controllable, but the internal structure is complex, which is mainly manifested in the following aspects: the growth of debt with repayment responsibility is too fast, the debt burden in some regions is heavy, the dependence on land income is heavy; There are still many irregularities in the borrowing process. The emergence of these problems is attributed to the two levels of system and management. The institutional factor lies in the mismatch between the central and local governments' financial rights and rights in the process of tax-sharing system, while the management factor is the backwardness of the construction of the management system in the process of government borrowing, which leads to widespread irregularities. Debt utilization is low. This paper also attempts to propose an index control system to standardize the credit risk of local government debt from the angle of quantitative analysis, and to measure the probability of default of local government debt by using the KMV model of enterprise credit risk measurement tool. This paper predicts the future situation of local government debt in China, and puts forward the reasonable scale of regulating local government debt issuance. Finally, on the basis of summing up the international experience of local government bond issuance in many countries, aiming at the concrete situation of local government debt in China, this paper puts forward the general idea of perfecting the institutional system construction of local government debt risk, The concrete measures and optimization suggestions to regulate and restrain the issuance of bonds by local governments in China are put forward in the following three stages.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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