本文選題：實際匯率　切入點：政府消費　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：實際匯率作為在開放經(jīng)濟條件下一種重要的相對價格水平,在全球經(jīng)濟中起到資源配置的作用,是影響一國國際競爭力的重要變量,對一國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有廣泛的影響力,因此實際匯率一直是學(xué)術(shù)界研究的重要課題。通過研讀大量關(guān)于實際匯率的文獻可知,學(xué)者們主要從三個方面對實際匯率展開研究：第一,從影響實際匯率的因素的角度。這些因素包括生產(chǎn)率、政府消費、經(jīng)常賬戶等；第二,測算均衡實際匯率；第三,實際匯率的變動如何影響其它經(jīng)濟變量。例如實際匯率是如何影響經(jīng)濟增長的。在影響實際匯率的因素中,巴拉薩-薩繆爾森(BS)效應(yīng)自1964年提出以來在國際上引起了廣泛的爭論,一直是學(xué)者們所熱衷的課題。Froot和Rogoff(1991)通過假設(shè)政府消費主要用于非貿(mào)易部門的商品和服務(wù),從而提高非貿(mào)易部門的相對價格水平,使得本國實際匯率升值。政府消費對實際匯率的影響在國際上被稱為弗洛特-羅格夫效應(yīng)。國內(nèi)學(xué)者對巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應(yīng)從不同的角度展開了大量的研究,但是對弗洛特-羅格夫效應(yīng)的研究卻非常的少,有些在均衡匯率的研究中也并沒有加入政府消費這一控制變量。那么在中國,政府消費是否會對人民幣實際匯率產(chǎn)生影響正是本文所要研究的。 本文首先選擇了國內(nèi)31個省份,對1994-2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)進行了政府消費對內(nèi)部實際匯率影響的實證分析。然后選取了全球180個經(jīng)濟體,利用中國和各個經(jīng)濟體的相對變量對1994-2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)做了相對政府消費對人民幣雙邊實際匯率的影響實證分析。得到如下結(jié)論：第一,中國政府消費是通過影響非貿(mào)易部門的相對價格水平影響人民幣實際匯率的；第二：中國政府消費增加會推動人民幣實際匯率升值�？傮w來說,中國政府消費每增加1%,人民幣實際匯率大約升值13%；第三：短期內(nèi)人民幣實際匯率仍有升值的空間。最后我們得到如下啟示：如果人民幣實際匯率的升值是基于生產(chǎn)力的提高,那么此時人民幣實際匯率的升值是正常合理的,能夠促進國經(jīng)濟長期增長。但是由于不合理的政府消費支出所導(dǎo)致的人民幣實際匯率升值對長期經(jīng)濟發(fā)展是有害的,是需要改進的。
[Abstract]:As an important relative price level in the open economy, the real exchange rate plays a role in the allocation of resources in the global economy. It is an important variable that affects a country's international competitiveness and has a wide influence on the economic development of a country. Therefore, the real exchange rate has always been an important subject of academic research. By reading a large number of documents on the real exchange rate, scholars have mainly studied the real exchange rate from three aspects: first, From the perspective of the factors affecting the real exchange rate. These factors include productivity, government consumption, current account, etc.; second, measuring the equilibrium real exchange rate; third, How changes in the real exchange rate affect other economic variables. For example, how the real exchange rate affects economic growth. Since its introduction in 1964, the Balassa-Samuelson effect has aroused widespread international controversy and has been a hot topic for scholars. Froot and Rogoffl 1991) by assuming that government consumption is mainly used in non-trade sectors of goods and services, Thus raising the level of relative prices in the non-trade sector, The influence of government consumption on the real exchange rate is known internationally as the Flot-Rogoff effect. Domestic scholars have carried out a lot of research on the Balassa-Samuelson effect from different angles. But there are very few studies on the Flot-Rogoff effect, some of which do not include government consumption as a control variable in the study of the equilibrium exchange rate. Well, in China, Whether government consumption will have an impact on the real exchange rate of RMB is exactly what this paper will study. In this paper, 31 provinces are selected to analyze the impact of government consumption on the internal real exchange rate from 1994 to 2012. Then 180 economies are selected. Using the relative variables of China and various economies, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of government consumption on the real exchange rate of RMB from 1994 to 2012. The conclusions are as follows: first, Chinese government consumption affects the real exchange rate of the RMB by influencing the relative price level of the non-trade sector. Second, the increase in Chinese government consumption will promote the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB. For every 1 percent increase in Chinese government consumption, the real exchange rate of the RMB will appreciate by about 13 percent. Third, there is still room for appreciation of the real exchange rate of the renminbi in the short term. Finally, we get the following enlightenment: if the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB is based on the increase in productivity, Well, at this point, the appreciation of the RMB real exchange rate is normal and reasonable and can promote the long-term economic growth of the country. However, the appreciation of the RMB real exchange rate caused by unreasonable government consumption expenditure is harmful to the long-term economic development. Is in need of improvement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F812.45

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馬榮華;;相對政府支出對人民幣實際匯率的影響[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟科學(xué);2005年06期

2 張少華;;財政支出對實際匯率的沖擊效應(yīng)研究——基于OECD國家的PVAR估計[J];國際金融研究;2010年11期

3 方福前;屠俊明;;政府消費與私人消費關(guān)系研究進展[J];經(jīng)濟學(xué)動態(tài);2009年12期

4 盧鋒;韓曉亞;;長期經(jīng)濟成長與實際匯率演變[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2006年07期

5 唐旭;錢士春;;相對勞動生產(chǎn)率變動對人民幣實際匯率的影響分析——哈羅德-巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應(yīng)實證研究[J];金融研究;2007年05期

6 楊長江;皇甫秉超;;人民幣實際匯率和人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)[J];金融研究;2010年02期

7 胡德寶;蘇基溶;;政府消費、貿(mào)易條件、生產(chǎn)率與人民幣匯率——基于巴拉薩—薩繆爾森效應(yīng)的擴展研究[J];金融研究;2013年10期

8 傅章彥;;生產(chǎn)率、消費需求與實際匯率的決定——基于發(fā)展中國家(或地區(qū))的經(jīng)驗證據(jù)[J];經(jīng)濟論壇;2009年07期

9 何慧剛;;中國利率-匯率聯(lián)動協(xié)調(diào)機制:“利率平價模型”視角[J];求索;2007年04期

10 殷德生;政府支出與均衡實際匯率[J];世界經(jīng)濟;2004年01期

，

本文編號：1633304