本文選題：地方政府債務(wù)　切入點：主成分分析　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：由于過去計劃經(jīng)濟體制遺留下來的歷史原因,我國對地方政府舉債一直持十分保守的態(tài)度。20世紀90年代財政部頒布《預(yù)算法》,對地方政府對外舉債做了明令禁止。但改革開放后,工業(yè)化和城市化進程的加速使得地方財政積累了大量隱性及或有負債。為規(guī)避監(jiān)管部門的監(jiān)督管理,地方政府地方債務(wù)逐漸呈現(xiàn)了出隱蔽性和多樣性的特點,加大了地方財政的管理難度；同時個別地方政府債務(wù)過重,財政風(fēng)險逐漸積聚。本文主要研究地方政府債務(wù)償付能力及風(fēng)險管理機制。根據(jù)2014年審計署公布的地方政府債務(wù)審計結(jié)果,從經(jīng)濟實力、債務(wù)規(guī)模、債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)、籌措資金使用效率、債務(wù)實際償還情況等方面選取了12個指標(biāo)來度量2012年底至2013年6月23個省份和直轄市的債務(wù)清償能力。用主成分分析法提取了“債務(wù)規(guī)模增長及其支撐因素”、“地方政府債務(wù)構(gòu)成”、“債務(wù)實際償付情況情況”、“債務(wù)資金使用效率”四個主成分,并且通過主成分得分函數(shù)模型,得到了研究標(biāo)的省市主成分因子的得分及其綜合償付能力情況。研究結(jié)果表明,目前我國地方政府債務(wù)償付存在不同程度的風(fēng)險,局部地區(qū)債務(wù)規(guī)模較大,地方債務(wù)財政負擔(dān)較重。當(dāng)前,我國地方政府債務(wù)管理體制建設(shè)嚴重滯后。文本以此為我國地政府債務(wù)的持續(xù)發(fā)行、健康清償提出了一些政策建議,以提升地方政府綜合償債能力及風(fēng)險管理能力。
[Abstract]:Because of the historical reasons left over by the planned economic system in the past, In 90s, the Ministry of Finance promulgated the Budget Law, which prohibited the borrowing of local governments from the outside world. However, after the reform and opening up, The acceleration of industrialization and urbanization makes the local finance accumulate a large number of recessive and contingent liabilities. In order to avoid the supervision and management of the regulatory department, the local government debt gradually presents the characteristics of concealment and diversity. This has made it more difficult to manage local finance; at the same time, some local governments are overindebted. Financial risk gradually accumulates. This paper mainly studies the local government debt solvency and risk management mechanism. According to the audit results of local government debt issued by the Audit Office on 2014, from the economic strength, debt size, debt structure, Efficiency in the use of funds, From end of 2012 to June 2013, 12 indexes were selected to measure the debt solvency of 23 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The principal component analysis was used to extract the "growth of debt scale and its supporting factors". The composition of the government debt, the actual repayment of the debt, the efficiency of the use of debt funds, And through the principal component score function model, we get the score of the principal component factor and its comprehensive solvency. The results show that the local government debt repayment in China has different degrees of risk. At present, the construction of local government debt management system in our country is seriously lagging behind. The text puts forward some policy suggestions for the sustainable issuance of local government debt and the healthy settlement of the debt. In order to enhance the comprehensive solvency of local governments and risk management capacity.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.5

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