本文選題：突發(fā)公共事件　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)模型　出處：《系統(tǒng)工程》2015年11期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：通過(guò)建立我國(guó)突發(fā)公共事件的多主體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)模式,從定量角度探討該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)模式的運(yùn)行機(jī)制。我國(guó)政府是突發(fā)公共事件的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)者或管理者。為了度量該機(jī)制下政府的應(yīng)急準(zhǔn)備金,不僅需要考慮其主體分布,還需要考慮其尾部分布。為了擬合其尾部分布,采用極值理論的GPD模型,不同類型突發(fā)公共事件的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),GPD模型的形狀參數(shù)可能處于不同區(qū)間。在考了政府援助點(diǎn)與閾值不同關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,探討三種不同參數(shù)區(qū)間下政府應(yīng)急準(zhǔn)備金的度量問(wèn)題。最后以我國(guó)云南省地震損失為例驗(yàn)證了多主體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)模式可行性,并度量政府對(duì)于地震這類突發(fā)公共事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)急準(zhǔn)備金。
[Abstract]:By establishing a multi-subject risk-sharing model for public emergencies in China, In order to measure the emergency reserve of the government under this mechanism, we should not only consider its main distribution, but also discuss the operation mechanism of the risk-sharing model from a quantitative point of view. In order to fit the tail distribution, the GPD model based on extreme value theory is used. The shape parameters of GPD model for different types of public emergencies may be in different ranges. The measurement of government emergency reserve under three different parameter ranges is discussed. Finally, the feasibility of multi-agent risk sharing model is verified by taking earthquake losses in Yunnan Province of China as an example. And measure the government emergency reserves for such sudden public events as earthquake risk.
【作者單位】： 北京航空航天大學(xué)經(jīng)管學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(70973007;71373017)
【分類號(hào)】：F812.2

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