本文選題：財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　切入點(diǎn)：財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估　出處：《遼寧大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn),是世界各國財(cái)政運(yùn)行和管理過程中所面臨的迫切問題。2008年全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,為緩解經(jīng)濟(jì)增長下行壓力,世界各國紛紛借助積極的財(cái)政政策和寬松的貨幣政策進(jìn)行宏觀調(diào)控。但是,隨之而來的是財(cái)政赤字與債務(wù)水平的攀升,原本分散的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)積聚成政府頭上的財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)烏云。歐債危機(jī)與美國的“財(cái)政懸崖”,都是財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不斷累積帶來的惡果。2014年,中國社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展步入增長速度換擋期、結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整陣痛期、前期刺激政策消化期的三期疊加的新常態(tài)。經(jīng)濟(jì)告別高速增長的同時(shí),中國財(cái)政也步入了新常態(tài),由過去兩位數(shù)的高速增長,駛?cè)肓酥械退僭鲩L的軌道。面對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長動力不足,中國政府積極推行減收增支的擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策,發(fā)揮它們在穩(wěn)增長、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)方面的作用,財(cái)政收支矛盾更加凸顯。不斷累積的財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極有可能引發(fā)財(cái)政危機(jī)甚至經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),這就迫使我們不得不建立起對財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評估和預(yù)警機(jī)制,以便實(shí)現(xiàn)對財(cái)政政策運(yùn)行過程和實(shí)施效果的實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)控,進(jìn)而及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)并規(guī)避所面臨的財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如何才能實(shí)現(xiàn)對財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度的評估,挖掘誘發(fā)財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題的原因,提出實(shí)現(xiàn)中國財(cái)政可持續(xù)發(fā)展的財(cái)政治理與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施,守住財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不爆發(fā)的底線?本文按照理論研究、實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)、因素分析、防范措施和對策建議的基本路徑展開。在具體的研究路徑選擇中,將中國經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行及與政府財(cái)政活動相關(guān)的財(cái)政政策、稅收管理與預(yù)算體制、財(cái)政收支、政府債務(wù)等納入中國財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形成的因素體系內(nèi),以考察它們對中國財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度的“貢獻(xiàn)率”。首先,利用理論研究、定性研究、規(guī)范研究,分析財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的起因、影響因素及其作用結(jié)果;其次,利用層次分析法,實(shí)現(xiàn)定性分析向定量研究的轉(zhuǎn)換,把引發(fā)財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的因素指標(biāo)化,并確定它們在財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形成中所占的權(quán)重;然后,在實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)方面,本文既運(yùn)用了概念性、表述性模型來進(jìn)行理論鋪墊,也對具體財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度進(jìn)行了計(jì)量評估,主要步驟是先利用理論分析和GARCH模型,確定各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)間,再對財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行區(qū)間映射和權(quán)重確定,構(gòu)建出適合中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式和財(cái)政運(yùn)行特點(diǎn)的非參數(shù)模型財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估系統(tǒng),然后計(jì)算各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)子系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)和財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的綜合指數(shù)。最后,結(jié)合中國當(dāng)前特殊的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢及實(shí)證分析結(jié)論,提出對策建議。
[Abstract]:Fiscal risk is an urgent problem in the process of financial operation and management in various countries around the world. In 2008, after the global financial crisis broke out, in order to alleviate the downward pressure on economic growth, Countries all over the world have taken advantage of active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies to carry out macro-control. However, with the increase of fiscal deficits and debt levels, The originally dispersed economic risks accumulated into a dark cloud of fiscal risks on the top of the government. The European debt crisis and the "fiscal cliff" in the United States were both the result of the continuous accumulation of fiscal risks. In 2014, China's social and economic development entered a period of shifting growth rates. Structural adjustment and labor pains, the new normal superimposed by the three phases of the previous period of stimulus policy digestion. As the economy bid farewell to rapid growth, China's finance has also entered the new normal, with rapid growth in the past two digits. The Chinese government has actively pursued an expansionary fiscal policy of reducing revenues and increasing expenditure, giving play to their role in stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure. The contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure is even more prominent. The accumulated fiscal risks are likely to lead to financial crisis or even economic crisis, which forces us to establish an assessment and early warning mechanism for fiscal risks. In order to realize the real-time monitoring of the process and effect of fiscal policy, and then to discover and avoid the financial risk in time, how to realize the evaluation of the degree of financial risk, and how to excavate the causes of the financial risk problem, Put forward the financial governance and risk prevention measures to realize the sustainable development of Chinese finance, and keep the bottom line of the financial risk not to break out? This paper is based on the basic path of theoretical research, empirical test, factor analysis, preventive measures and countermeasures and suggestions. In the course of specific research path selection, this paper introduces the economic operation of China and the fiscal policies related to the government's financial activities. Tax management and budget system, fiscal revenue and expenditure, government debt and so on are included in the factor system of China's fiscal risk formation, in order to investigate their "contribution rate" to the degree of financial risk in China. The causes, influencing factors and their effects of financial risks are analyzed. Secondly, the qualitative analysis is transformed into quantitative research by AHP, and the factors that lead to financial risks are indexed. And determine their weight in the formation of financial risk; then, in the empirical test, this paper not only uses conceptual and expressive models to lay the groundwork for the theory, but also carries on the quantitative evaluation to the specific financial risk degree. The main step is to first use theoretical analysis and GARCH model to determine the risk interval of each risk index, and then to determine the financial risk index interval mapping and weight determination. A non-parametric model fiscal risk assessment system suitable for China's economic development model and financial operation characteristics is constructed, and then the risk index of each risk subsystem and the comprehensive index of financial risk are calculated. Combined with China's special economic situation and empirical analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812

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