本文關(guān)鍵詞： 資本賬戶開放 資本流動(dòng) 策略與步驟　出處：《財(cái)政部財(cái)政科學(xué)研究所》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：加入世界貿(mào)易組織以后,我國(guó)經(jīng)常賬戶已按照承諾對(duì)外放開,而資本賬戶開放雖然屢被提及,但開放的過程一直較為曲折。1997年的亞洲金融危機(jī)和2008年的全球金融危機(jī)的負(fù)面影響表明資本流動(dòng)的負(fù)面沖擊可能會(huì)損害我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定,而相對(duì)封閉的資本環(huán)境讓我國(guó)能夠在一定程度上抵御外部性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而,在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的大背景下,國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)互動(dòng)頻率明顯增強(qiáng),中國(guó)面臨的跨境流動(dòng)的資本規(guī)模也顯著擴(kuò)大,資本管制的成本相應(yīng)增大,而有效性卻在持續(xù)降低。 目前中國(guó)已成為全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,資本賬戶的管制已成為制約中國(guó)全面融入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)金融體系的短板,人民幣不可兌換會(huì)成為市場(chǎng)有效配置資源的障礙,資本賬戶開放是中國(guó)不可避免的客觀要求。但資本賬戶開放需要什么條件,開放到什么程度,需要哪些配套措施,是否能有一個(gè)明確的時(shí)間表是富有爭(zhēng)議的,也是需要深入研究的。 本文首先歸納了國(guó)際上對(duì)于資本賬戶及其開放的內(nèi)涵,指出經(jīng)典模型“三元悖論”在我國(guó)應(yīng)用的局限性,并從理論上探討了資本賬戶開放的利弊,分析了資本賬戶開放的一般性條件。同時(shí),總結(jié)了其他國(guó)家資本賬戶開放的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn),對(duì)我國(guó)資本賬戶開放的進(jìn)程及步驟具有一定借鑒意義。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文回顧了我國(guó)資本賬戶開放的歷程和政策變遷,介紹了國(guó)內(nèi)外研究者對(duì)我國(guó)資本賬戶開放程度的測(cè)定結(jié)果,并分析了我國(guó)資本項(xiàng)目管制的現(xiàn)狀和特征。 對(duì)于下一階段資本賬戶開放進(jìn)程的安排,有學(xué)者認(rèn)為開放條件基本成熟,并提出了加速推進(jìn)、協(xié)調(diào)開放的整體策略與步驟。但具體觀察我國(guó)現(xiàn)階段的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)情況、企業(yè)景氣度指標(biāo),并考察國(guó)內(nèi)利率和匯率的形成機(jī)制,本文認(rèn)為：為了能在長(zhǎng)期更好地獲得開放帶來的正收益,現(xiàn)階段在資本賬戶開放前還是應(yīng)先著力推進(jìn)利率、匯率市場(chǎng)化,這將有效地避免貿(mào)然開放后短期資本流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)的沖擊；在資本開放前應(yīng)為民營(yíng)資本進(jìn)入金融領(lǐng)域創(chuàng)造更寬松的條件,為本土金融機(jī)構(gòu)的自我完善贏得更多的時(shí)間；整個(gè)開放過程需要配合審慎的宏觀監(jiān)管、高效的信息監(jiān)督手段和密切的國(guó)際合作機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:After joining the World Trade Organization, China's current account has been liberalized in accordance with its commitments, while the opening of the capital account has been repeatedly mentioned. The negative impact of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008 shows that the negative impact of capital flows may undermine the stability of our macroeconomic and financial markets. However, in the context of economic globalization, the frequency of international economic interaction has increased significantly, and the scale of capital flowing across borders has also been significantly expanded. The cost of capital control increases accordingly, while the effectiveness continues to decrease. At present, China has become the world's second largest economy, and capital account controls have become a constraint on China's full integration into the global economic and financial system. The non-convertibility of the renminbi will become an obstacle to the efficient allocation of resources by the market. The opening of the capital account is an inevitable objective requirement in China. However, it is controversial as to what conditions are required for the opening of the capital account, to what extent, to what extent, what supporting measures are needed, and whether there can be a clear timetable. It also needs further study. This paper first sums up the international connotation of capital account and its opening, points out the limitations of the application of the classical model "ternary paradox" in our country, and probes into the advantages and disadvantages of capital account opening theoretically. This paper analyzes the general conditions of capital account opening, and summarizes the experience and lessons of other countries' capital account opening, which can be used for reference in the process and steps of capital account opening in China. This paper reviews the course and policy changes of capital account opening in China, introduces the results of domestic and foreign researchers' determination of capital account opening degree in China, and analyzes the present situation and characteristics of capital account control in China. For the arrangement of the next stage of the capital account opening process, some scholars think that the opening conditions are basically mature, and put forward the overall strategy and steps to accelerate and coordinate the opening up. In order to gain a better long-term positive return from opening up, we should push forward interest rate and exchange rate marketization before the opening of capital account at this stage, and examine the formation mechanism of domestic interest rate and exchange rate. This will effectively avoid the impact of short-term capital flow on China's financial market after the rash opening up, create more relaxed conditions for private capital to enter the financial field before capital opening, and gain more time for the self-improvement of local financial institutions. The whole process of opening up should be accompanied by prudent macro-supervision, efficient information supervision and close international cooperation mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：財(cái)政部財(cái)政科學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812;F832

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