本文關(guān)鍵詞： 財政支出結(jié)構(gòu) 經(jīng)濟增長 最優(yōu)支出規(guī)模　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：凱恩斯學(xué)說提出了政府在短期總需求不足的情況下，為防止經(jīng)濟進入下滑周期，可以通過財政收支等手段擴大總需求以增加產(chǎn)出熨平經(jīng)濟波動。這一理論自提出以來，世界各國政府都進行實踐，在經(jīng)濟下滑周期主動干預(yù)。我國在2008年美國爆發(fā)次貸危機危及全球經(jīng)濟時，為避免國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟遭受次貸危機的沖擊，中國主動實施刺激性的財政計劃，推出四萬億的投資計劃，在短期內(nèi)確實避免了經(jīng)濟遭遇沖擊，然而后續(xù)逐漸顯現(xiàn)出來的通貨膨脹、房價飆升和地方政府債務(wù)的狀況，，將這次的四萬億刺激計劃卷入激烈的討論中。大家討論主要圍繞這次的刺激計劃是利大于弊還是弊大于利、如果沒有進行干預(yù)，經(jīng)濟會呈現(xiàn)什么走向、政府主導(dǎo)的這種大手筆的投資是否缺乏效率，是否造成社會經(jīng)濟資源的大量浪費。 與此對應(yīng)，在五年后的2013十八大報告中提到“處理好政府和市場的關(guān)系，使市場在資源配置中起決定性作用和更好發(fā)揮政府作用”，這代表著今后經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的一個大的趨勢，即經(jīng)濟市場化程度會越來愈高，政府職能的天枰要逐漸從經(jīng)濟管理方向往公共服務(wù)方向傾斜。 在這樣的大的經(jīng)濟背景下，財政支出作為政府通過財政政策進行經(jīng)濟調(diào)控的一個工具，和一個為民眾提供公共服務(wù)的工具，如何調(diào)整其結(jié)構(gòu)使其更好的發(fā)揮效用，促進經(jīng)濟增長成為一個值得研究的問題。 本文分為五章，第一章主要闡述了研究的背景、理論和實踐意義，并簡單介紹了本文的研究方案。第二章從國內(nèi)和國外角度分別介紹了有關(guān)財政支出與經(jīng)濟增長這一課題研究的歷史和現(xiàn)狀，介紹不同學(xué)者對這一問題研究方法和結(jié)論并進行了對比分析。第三章在研究中國財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)變化趨勢和財政支出影響經(jīng)濟增長途徑的基礎(chǔ)上，提出包含財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)的經(jīng)濟增長理論模型，得出使經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)態(tài)增長率最大化的財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)。第四章采用總產(chǎn)出、各類財政支出、資本存量和勞動力數(shù)量建立多元一次線性模型，并根據(jù)1993-2005的年度數(shù)據(jù)進行模型擬合，得出各類財政支出對產(chǎn)出的邊際貢獻值，并根據(jù)第三章模型結(jié)論，得到中國理論最優(yōu)結(jié)構(gòu)，并與實際財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)進行對比分析。第五章在上章對比分析的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了財政支出優(yōu)化的建議。
[Abstract]:Keynesian theory proposed that the government in the short term in the case of insufficient aggregate demand, in order to prevent the economy from entering a downward cycle. The total demand can be expanded by means of fiscal revenue and expenditure in order to increase the output to smooth the economic fluctuation. Since the theory was put forward, the governments all over the world have carried on the practice. In 2008, when the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States to endanger the global economy, in order to avoid the impact of the sub-prime mortgage crisis on the domestic economy, China took the initiative to implement a stimulative financial plan. The $4 tillion investment plan did avert a shock to the economy in the short term, but followed by rising inflation, soaring house prices and local government debt. The $4 tillion stimulus package has been embroiled in a heated debate about whether the stimulus will do more good than harm than good, and what the economy will look like if it doesn't intervene. Whether the government-led investment is inefficient and a waste of social and economic resources. Accordingly, in the 18 report of 2013, five years later, it is mentioned that "the relationship between government and market should be handled well, so that the market can play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and play a better role in government". This represents a major trend of economic development in the future, that is, the degree of economic marketization will become higher and higher, and the government function should be gradually tilted from the direction of economic management to the direction of public services. In such a large economic background, fiscal expenditure is a tool for the government to regulate and control the economy through fiscal policy, and a tool for providing public services to the public. How to adjust its structure to play a better role in promoting economic growth has become a problem worth studying. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter mainly describes the background, theoretical and practical significance of the research. The second chapter introduces the history and current situation of the research on fiscal expenditure and economic growth from the perspective of domestic and foreign. This paper introduces the research methods and conclusions of different scholars on this issue and makes a comparative analysis. Chapter three is based on the study of the changing trend of Chinese fiscal expenditure structure and the influence of fiscal expenditure on economic growth. This paper puts forward a theoretical model of economic growth including the structure of fiscal expenditure, and obtains the structure of fiscal expenditure which maximizes the steady growth rate of economy. Chapter 4th adopts total output and all kinds of fiscal expenditure. The multiple linear model of capital stock and labor force is established, and the marginal contribution of all kinds of fiscal expenditure to output is obtained by fitting the model according to the annual data of 1993-2005. According to the conclusion of the model in Chapter 3, the optimal structure of Chinese theory is obtained and compared with the actual structure of fiscal expenditure. Chapter 5th, based on the comparative analysis in the previous chapter, puts forward some suggestions for optimizing fiscal expenditure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.45;F124.1

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