【摘要】：步入“十二五”，各大企業(yè)紛紛確立“十二五”發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)，而戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)一經(jīng)確定，就需要制定相應(yīng)的戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃，以促進(jìn)目標(biāo)的落實(shí)。作為人力資源管理的戰(zhàn)略環(huán)節(jié)，制定人力資源規(guī)劃，不僅有助于企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃的制定和實(shí)施，而且能夠?yàn)槠髽I(yè)管理高層進(jìn)行決策提供準(zhǔn)確的人力資源信息。 本文研究的對(duì)象——茂名石化，世界500強(qiáng)企業(yè)之一中國(guó)石化集團(tuán)的直屬煉化企業(yè)，高度重視人力資源管理工作。然而，作為有50多年歷史的老國(guó)企，茂名石化人力資源管理基礎(chǔ)薄弱。隨著茂名石化“十二五”發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)的確立，該公司人力資源管理面臨的首要任務(wù)，就是要站在企業(yè)未來發(fā)展的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)角度，制定適合本企業(yè)的人力資源規(guī)劃，為企業(yè)未來發(fā)展提供人力支持。 本文以系統(tǒng)科學(xué)的思想為基礎(chǔ)，以人力資源規(guī)劃相關(guān)理論為指導(dǎo)，依據(jù)企業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，對(duì)茂名石化的人力資源規(guī)劃環(huán)境和人力資源管理現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析，接著，根據(jù)企業(yè)實(shí)際，明確了構(gòu)建規(guī)劃模型的原則，設(shè)計(jì)了人力資源規(guī)劃模型的流程。以流程為依據(jù)，詳細(xì)分析了茂名石化人力資源供需及結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)的影響因素，對(duì)現(xiàn)有預(yù)測(cè)模型的方法進(jìn)行了比較，，選擇最適合茂名石化實(shí)際的模型方法，建立了人力資源需求、結(jié)構(gòu)的多變量灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型和人力資源供給預(yù)測(cè)的馬爾克夫模型。本文就以這三個(gè)模型為核心，以企業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略為依據(jù)，以實(shí)現(xiàn)供需平衡為目標(biāo)，構(gòu)建了茂名石化人力資源規(guī)劃模型。 在此基礎(chǔ)上，應(yīng)用人力資源規(guī)劃模型的研究成果，對(duì)茂名石化未來發(fā)展所需的人力資源總量、人員結(jié)構(gòu)及供給進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，提出了實(shí)現(xiàn)人力資源供需平衡的意見和建議。最后，對(duì)規(guī)劃預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行評(píng)估，得出了方法可行的結(jié)論。 本文的研究，可為茂名石化人力資源管理提供決策支持，為進(jìn)一步制定人力資源具體計(jì)劃提供參考。
[Abstract]:After entering the 12th five-year Plan, all the major enterprises have established the strategic goal of the 12th five-year Plan, and once the strategic goal has been determined, it is necessary to formulate the corresponding strategic plan in order to promote the implementation of the goal. As the strategic link of human resource management, the formulation of human resource planning is not only helpful to the formulation and implementation of enterprise strategic planning, but also can provide accurate human resource information for the senior management of enterprise to make decisions. Maoming Petrochemical Company, one of the top 500 enterprises in the world, attaches great importance to human resource management. However, as an old state-owned enterprise with a history of more than 50 years, Maoming Petrochemical has a weak foundation of human resources management. With the establishment of the strategic goal of the 12th five-year Plan of Maoming Petrochemical Company, the primary task of human resources management in Maoming Petrochemical Company is to formulate the human resources plan suitable for the enterprise from the long-term point of view of the future development of the enterprise. To provide manpower support for the future development of enterprises. Based on the thought of system science, guided by the relevant theories of human resource planning, and according to the development strategy of enterprises, this paper analyzes the environment of human resource planning and the present situation of human resources management in Maoming Petrochemical Company, and then, according to the reality of the enterprise, The principle of constructing planning model is clarified, and the process of human resource planning model is designed. Based on the process, this paper analyzes in detail the influencing factors of human resource supply and demand and structure prediction of Maoming Petrochemical Company, compares the existing forecasting models, selects the most suitable model method for Maoming Petrochemical Company, and establishes the human resource demand. The multivariable grey prediction model of structure and the Markov model of human resource supply prediction. Based on these three models, based on the enterprise development strategy and the goal of realizing the balance between supply and demand, this paper constructs the human resource planning model of Maoming Petrochemical Company. On this basis, based on the research results of human resource planning model, this paper forecasts the total amount of human resources, personnel structure and supply needed for the future development of Maoming Petrochemical Company, and puts forward some suggestions and suggestions for realizing the balance between supply and demand of human resources. Finally, the planning and prediction results are evaluated, and the feasible conclusion is drawn. The research in this paper can provide decision support for human resource management of Maoming Petrochemical Company and provide reference for further formulating the specific plan of human resources.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F272.92;F426.722

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