【摘要】：由于日益緊張的能源資源和持續(xù)惡化的自然環(huán)境，節(jié)能成為全世界共同關(guān)注的話題。耗能用戶通過合同能源管理項目實施節(jié)能改造能夠有效地降低能耗，因此對合同能源管理特別是應(yīng)用較為廣泛的節(jié)能量保證型項目的研究對于推動我國全面開展節(jié)能減排、促進經(jīng)濟循環(huán)發(fā)展具有相當重要的理論與實踐意義。 目前的節(jié)能量保證型合同能源管理項目中，節(jié)能服務(wù)公司通常按照其實施相關(guān)節(jié)能改造項目的歷史經(jīng)驗來確定承諾節(jié)能量和額外節(jié)能收益分享比例。這種做法忽略了未來不確定因素對節(jié)能項目的影響，而這些不確定因素恰恰提供了未來可能選擇的決策變化依據(jù)。因此，僅僅靠主觀歷史經(jīng)驗確定節(jié)能量保證型合同能源管理項目的承諾節(jié)能量及額外節(jié)能收益分享比例是不合理的。 為解決上述問題，，本論文首先分析了節(jié)能量保證型合同能源管理項目的運行過程及特點，指出項目實施中存在的不確定性及實物期權(quán)特性，提出節(jié)能量保證型合同能源管理項目具有實物期權(quán)特性且適用實物期權(quán)理論及模型的結(jié)論。然后通過對節(jié)能量保證型合同能源管理承諾節(jié)能量進行的分析，構(gòu)建了項目能源價格和實際節(jié)能量模型、承諾節(jié)能量模型以及節(jié)能總收益模型，并利用該模型對美國某高校的節(jié)能改造項目進行了實證研究和分析，為不確定環(huán)境下的節(jié)能量保證型合同能源管理項目決策提供了一個新思路和定量分析方法。本文為解決節(jié)能量保證型項目在實際應(yīng)用中未能合理量化承諾節(jié)能量的問題進行相關(guān)理論研究，并提出給予案例分析的可以有效指導實踐的相關(guān)理論模型，彌補了國內(nèi)對于節(jié)能量保證型合同能源管理相關(guān)理論研究的不足。論文的研究成果對合同能源管理模式在我國更好的推行以及建設(shè)能源節(jié)約型、環(huán)境友好型社會等方面具有較大的理論意義和實際應(yīng)用價值。
[Abstract]:Due to the increasing shortage of energy resources and the deteriorating natural environment, energy saving has become a topic of common concern all over the world. The energy consumption users can effectively reduce the energy consumption through the energy saving transformation of the contract energy management project, so the research on the contract energy management, especially the energy saving guarantee project, which is widely used, can promote the energy saving and emission reduction in our country in an all-round way. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the development of economic cycle. In the current energy-saving and energy-saving contract energy management projects, energy-saving service companies usually determine the proportion of promised energy saving and additional energy-saving benefits according to their historical experience in implementing relevant energy-saving transformation projects. This approach ignores the impact of future uncertainties on energy-saving projects, which provide the basis for possible decision-making changes in the future. Therefore, it is unreasonable to determine the promised energy saving and the sharing ratio of additional energy saving benefits of energy-saving contract energy management projects only by subjective historical experience. In order to solve the above problems, this paper first analyzes the operation process and characteristics of energy-saving and guaranteed contract energy management project, and points out the uncertainty and real option characteristics in the implementation of the project. The conclusion that the energy-saving contract energy management project has the characteristics of real option and is applicable to the theory and model of real option is put forward. Then, through the analysis of the energy saving promise of energy saving contract energy management, the project energy price and actual energy saving model, the promised energy saving model and the total energy saving income model are constructed. The model is used to study and analyze the energy saving transformation project of a university in the United States, which provides a new idea and quantitative analysis method for the decision-making of energy-saving contract energy management project in uncertain environment. In this paper, the relevant theoretical research is carried out to solve the problem that the energy saving project can not reasonably quantify the commitment energy saving in practical application, and the relevant theoretical model which can effectively guide the practice is put forward. It makes up for the deficiency of domestic research on energy-saving contract energy management. The research results of this paper have great theoretical significance and practical application value for the better implementation of contract energy management model in China and the construction of energy-saving and environment-friendly society.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.2

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