【摘要】：我國經(jīng)濟(jì)自改革開放以來從以計劃經(jīng)濟(jì)為主轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐允袌鼋?jīng)濟(jì)為主,項目投資也呈現(xiàn)出規(guī)模大、技術(shù)含量高、投資主體和融資渠道多元化的特點。而在實際操作過程中,電廠建設(shè)項目投資規(guī)模大,運營周期較長。幾十億元的投資如果出現(xiàn)決策失誤,所造成的損失將會難以估量。這些都使得電力項目對投資效益評價的要求更為嚴(yán)格。我國電力市場經(jīng)過十多年的發(fā)展,市場規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,市場創(chuàng)新不斷深化,市場信息披露不斷完善,市場與國際接軌的速度不斷加快。進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來,在煤電價格矛盾激化的情況下,我國火電廠虧損加劇,火電投資大幅降低。與此同時,風(fēng)能作為一種高效清潔能源正受到越來越多國家的高度重視,相應(yīng)的風(fēng)電場的投資也越來越受到人民的關(guān)注。隨著越來越多的企業(yè)開始投資風(fēng)電,人們對于風(fēng)電投資的關(guān)注度也越來越高。在現(xiàn)今的大環(huán)境下,企業(yè)到底應(yīng)該繼續(xù)投資火電廠還是應(yīng)該轉(zhuǎn)變思路發(fā)展風(fēng)電行業(yè),兩種投資的效益如何,筆者認(rèn)為有必要進(jìn)行研究、分析和討論。 本文的宗旨是想建立一個多層次模糊綜合評價模型來對電廠建設(shè)項目進(jìn)行投資效益評價,繼而對火電與風(fēng)電兩種投資的效益優(yōu)劣進(jìn)行比較分析。本文首先介紹了國內(nèi)外火電與風(fēng)電的投資現(xiàn)狀與投資效益的基礎(chǔ)理論之后,通過電廠建設(shè)項目投資效益評價的基本理論內(nèi)容來設(shè)計了投資效益評價的指標(biāo)體系,并使用層次分析法確定各層指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,相對客觀地來反映對各指標(biāo)的重要程度。在確定權(quán)重之后,選擇一個火電建設(shè)項目和一個風(fēng)電建設(shè)項目,通過實際調(diào)查研究,得出相對科學(xué)可靠的實際數(shù)據(jù),最后通過模糊綜合評價模型來評價電廠建設(shè)項目的投資效益；經(jīng)過論證研究,得出結(jié)論火力發(fā)電項目投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益較優(yōu),風(fēng)電建設(shè)項目投資的社會效益更具優(yōu)勢。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, China's economy has changed from planned economy to market economy. Project investment is also characterized by large scale, high technology content, diversified investment subjects and financing channels. But in the actual operation process, the power plant construction project investment scale is large, the operation cycle is relatively long. Billions of dollars of investment if there is a mistake in decision-making, the losses will be incalculable. All of these make the investment benefit evaluation of electric power projects more stringent. After more than ten years' development, China's electric power market has expanded its scale, deepened its innovation, improved the disclosure of market information, and quickened the pace of market integration with the international market. Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the intensification of the contradiction between coal and electricity prices, the loss of thermal power plants in China has intensified, and the investment in thermal power has been greatly reduced. At the same time, wind energy, as an efficient and clean energy, has been paid more and more attention by more and more countries, and the investment of wind power farm has been paid more and more attention by the people. As more and more enterprises begin to invest in wind power, people pay more and more attention to wind power investment. In today's environment, whether the enterprises should continue to invest in thermal power plants or should change their thinking to develop wind power industry, the author thinks it is necessary to study, analyze and discuss the benefits of the two kinds of investment. The purpose of this paper is to establish a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the investment benefits of power plant construction projects, and then to compare and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the two kinds of investment: thermal power and wind power. Firstly, this paper introduces the investment status and the basic theory of investment benefit of thermal power and wind power at home and abroad, and then designs the index system of investment benefit evaluation through the basic theory content of investment benefit evaluation of power plant construction project. The weight of each index is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reflect the importance of each index objectively. After the weight has been determined, a thermal power construction project and a wind power construction project are selected to obtain relatively scientific and reliable actual data through actual investigation and research. Finally, the investment benefit of power plant construction project is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Through demonstration and research, it is concluded that the economic benefit of thermal power project investment is better, and the social benefit of wind power construction project investment is more advantageous.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F426.61

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