我國制造業(yè)企業(yè)發(fā)展與碳排放關(guān)系的實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-03-17 10:13
【摘要】：中國作為世界上最大的二氧化碳排放國,其碳排放主要來源于工業(yè)排放。工業(yè)是推動我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的主導力量,工業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對能源消耗的需求主要取決于制造業(yè)企業(yè)的發(fā)展。工業(yè)部門碳排放的60%來源于中國制造業(yè)能源消耗,中國制造業(yè)企業(yè)的能源消耗以及由此導致的碳排放占工業(yè)部門能源消耗及總碳排放的比重高于其他行業(yè)企業(yè)。因此研究制造業(yè)企業(yè)發(fā)展與碳排放間的相關(guān)關(guān)系,分析不同碳排放影響因素的影響度,探析促進制造業(yè)企業(yè)實現(xiàn)碳減排的對策與建議具有重要作用。 本文首先研究環(huán)境庫茲涅茨理論,并對該理論在國內(nèi)外環(huán)境污染與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展間的延伸拓展應(yīng)用及實證分析進行總結(jié),最后對碳排放影響因素的研究方法、研究范圍和研究結(jié)論進行分析。在理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合我國碳排放高危、次危、相對安全制造業(yè)企業(yè)能源消耗數(shù)據(jù)計算所得碳排放量,從制造業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)、資產(chǎn)總額、總產(chǎn)值及從業(yè)人員等方面闡述制造業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,并進行脫鉤狀態(tài)分析。 其次,在實證研究中本文對現(xiàn)狀分析整理所得的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)(制造業(yè)GDP、碳排放高危制造業(yè)企業(yè)碳排放量X1、碳排放次危制造業(yè)企業(yè)碳排放量X2、碳排放相對安全制造業(yè)企業(yè)碳排放量X3)利用Eviews6.0軟件進行制造業(yè)企業(yè)發(fā)展與碳排放間關(guān)系的實證測算。ADF單位根檢驗顯示各變量為二階單整序列,利用Johansen檢驗顯示變量間存在一個協(xié)整方程LnGDP=1.3439LnX1-2.0154LnX2+1.6692LnX3,且LnGDP是LnX1、LnX2、LnX3的格蘭杰原因,而LnX1、LnXn、LnX3卻并非LnGDP的格蘭杰原因。然后利用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解,進一步解釋LnX1、LnX2、LnX3對LnGDP的反應(yīng)程度及貢獻度。 再次,利用改進的STIRPAT模型對制造業(yè)企業(yè)碳排放(Ⅰ)的影響因素制造業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資(F)、制造業(yè)從業(yè)人員(P)、制造業(yè)GDP(A)、制造業(yè)技術(shù)水平即能源利用效率(T)取對數(shù)進行影響度分析。首先進行OLS回歸分析發(fā)現(xiàn)該變量間存在多重共線性;為消除共線性進行嶺回歸分析,利用嶺跡圖及方差膨脹因子法確定k值,并求得該k值下的標準化嶺回歸方程及制造業(yè)企業(yè)碳排放影響因素的STIRPAT模型：分析發(fā)現(xiàn)LnF、LnP、LnA與LnI間為正向相關(guān)關(guān)系,而LnT與LnI間為負向相關(guān)關(guān)系,各變量與LnI的相關(guān)關(guān)系與預(yù)期假設(shè)基本相符,且LnP對LnI的影響程度最高,LnA次之;但是LnT對LnI的影響程度較弱,技術(shù)進步導致的碳排放量的降低遠不及上述三變量所帶來的碳排放量的增長。 最后,本文從政府和制造業(yè)企業(yè)兩個角度結(jié)合上述分析結(jié)果提出了促進制造業(yè)企業(yè)碳減排的對策和建議,為實現(xiàn)國家減排目標、走可持續(xù)發(fā)展的低碳道路具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China's carbon emissions come mainly from industrial emissions. Industry is the leading force to promote the economic development of our country. The demand for energy consumption in the industrial economic development mainly depends on the development of manufacturing enterprises. 60% of the carbon emissions in the industrial sector come from the energy consumption of the Chinese manufacturing industry. The energy consumption of the Chinese manufacturing enterprises and the resulting carbon emissions account for more energy consumption and total carbon emissions in the industrial sector than in other industries. Therefore, it is important to study the relationship between the development of manufacturing enterprises and carbon emissions, to analyze the influence degree of different carbon emission factors, and to explore the countermeasures and suggestions to promote manufacturing enterprises to achieve carbon emission reduction. This paper first studies the environmental Kuznets theory, and summarizes the extended application and empirical analysis of the theory between environmental pollution and economic development at home and abroad. Finally, the research methods of influencing factors of carbon emissions are discussed. The scope and conclusion of the study were analyzed. On the basis of theoretical research, combined with the energy consumption data of high-risk, sub-dangerous and relatively safe manufacturing enterprises in China, the carbon emissions are calculated from the number of manufacturing enterprises and the total amount of assets. Gross output value and employees and so on elaborated the manufacturing industry development present situation, and carries on the decoupling state analysis. Secondly, in the empirical study, this paper analyzes and collates the basic data (manufacturing GDP, carbon emissions of high-risk manufacturing enterprises carbon emissions X1, carbon emissions of secondary-risk manufacturing enterprises carbon emissions X2, Relative carbon emissions of manufacturing enterprises X3) using Eviews6.0 software to measure the relationship between the development of manufacturing enterprises and carbon emissions, the unit root test shows that each variable is a second-order single integral sequence. The Johansen test shows that there exists a cointegration equation LnGDP=1.3439LnX1-2.0154LnX2 1.6692 LnX3 between variables, and LnGDP is the Granger cause of LnX1,LnX2,LnX3, while LnX1,LnXn,LnX3 is not the Granger cause of LnGDP. Then, by using impulse response function and variance decomposition, the degree of response and contribution of LnX1,LnX2,LnX3 to LnGDP is further explained. Thirdly, using the improved STIRPAT model to influence the carbon emissions of manufacturing enterprises (鈪，
本文編號：2442195
[Abstract]:As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China's carbon emissions come mainly from industrial emissions. Industry is the leading force to promote the economic development of our country. The demand for energy consumption in the industrial economic development mainly depends on the development of manufacturing enterprises. 60% of the carbon emissions in the industrial sector come from the energy consumption of the Chinese manufacturing industry. The energy consumption of the Chinese manufacturing enterprises and the resulting carbon emissions account for more energy consumption and total carbon emissions in the industrial sector than in other industries. Therefore, it is important to study the relationship between the development of manufacturing enterprises and carbon emissions, to analyze the influence degree of different carbon emission factors, and to explore the countermeasures and suggestions to promote manufacturing enterprises to achieve carbon emission reduction. This paper first studies the environmental Kuznets theory, and summarizes the extended application and empirical analysis of the theory between environmental pollution and economic development at home and abroad. Finally, the research methods of influencing factors of carbon emissions are discussed. The scope and conclusion of the study were analyzed. On the basis of theoretical research, combined with the energy consumption data of high-risk, sub-dangerous and relatively safe manufacturing enterprises in China, the carbon emissions are calculated from the number of manufacturing enterprises and the total amount of assets. Gross output value and employees and so on elaborated the manufacturing industry development present situation, and carries on the decoupling state analysis. Secondly, in the empirical study, this paper analyzes and collates the basic data (manufacturing GDP, carbon emissions of high-risk manufacturing enterprises carbon emissions X1, carbon emissions of secondary-risk manufacturing enterprises carbon emissions X2, Relative carbon emissions of manufacturing enterprises X3) using Eviews6.0 software to measure the relationship between the development of manufacturing enterprises and carbon emissions, the unit root test shows that each variable is a second-order single integral sequence. The Johansen test shows that there exists a cointegration equation LnGDP=1.3439LnX1-2.0154LnX2 1.6692 LnX3 between variables, and LnGDP is the Granger cause of LnX1,LnX2,LnX3, while LnX1,LnXn,LnX3 is not the Granger cause of LnGDP. Then, by using impulse response function and variance decomposition, the degree of response and contribution of LnX1,LnX2,LnX3 to LnGDP is further explained. Thirdly, using the improved STIRPAT model to influence the carbon emissions of manufacturing enterprises (鈪，
本文編號：2442195
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