能源制約條件下中國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-02-12 16:28
【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟的高速發(fā)展,我國能源(一次能源)消費量2011年已達到26.1億噸石油當量,連續(xù)兩年超過美國位列全球第一,但我國的石油自給率卻在逐年下降。從我國的能源供給來看,我國存在缺油、少氣、多煤的能源結(jié)構(gòu)特點,石油自給率2011年僅為44.1%。從汽車保有量方面來看,2010年我國的汽車保有量已達到7802萬輛,但每千人汽車保有量僅為60輛,與世界平均保有量水平(每千人139輛)存在較大差距,僅相當于美國1918年和日本1965年的水平。未來30年我國汽車保有量還將處于快速增長期,2012年汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展報告指出,預(yù)計2020年,我國汽車保有量將達到2.2億～2.5億輛,2030年將達到3.6億～3.9億輛。這種汽車保有量的快速增長必將帶來石油的快速消耗和對環(huán)境的極大污染。因此,在汽車總保有量持續(xù)增長的背景下,大力發(fā)展節(jié)能與新能源汽車,在降低單車油耗的同時,加大天然氣、生物燃料、電能、氫氣對石油的替代力度,減緩石油消耗的增長勢頭,把石油對外依存度控制在一定范圍,既是我國能源安全戰(zhàn)略的重要舉措,也是我國車用能源戰(zhàn)略的必然選擇。 本文參考《BP世界能源統(tǒng)計》、《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》、《汽車工業(yè)統(tǒng)計年鑒》等權(quán)威數(shù)據(jù),首先分析全球能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)、我國傳統(tǒng)能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)和特點以及我國交通能源消費變化,得出我國的石油儲量較低,石油消費自給率逐年下降。進而根據(jù)環(huán)保的要求,指出能源緊缺與價格上漲、環(huán)保與汽車尾氣排放標準、新能源開發(fā)問題是我國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的三大背景,并同時對主要國家的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的經(jīng)驗和新能源汽車發(fā)展的取向進行詳細分析,以期找到全球汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的方向,其次對我國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型進行分析,主要包括我國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)銷量及保有量、我國推動汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的政策與目標以及我國新能源汽車的發(fā)展進程,發(fā)展進程主要從電動汽車整車的產(chǎn)業(yè)化現(xiàn)狀、主要汽車企業(yè)新能源汽車生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀及新能源汽車的優(yōu)缺點三方面進行分析。最后總結(jié)出我國新能源汽車發(fā)展所面臨的主要問題,包括能源成本、產(chǎn)銷規(guī)模及購入和使用成本,進而提出自己的結(jié)論和政策建議,以期推動中國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)良好轉(zhuǎn)型。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, China's energy (primary energy) consumption has reached 2.61 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2011, which ranks first in the world for two consecutive years, but the oil self-sufficiency rate of our country is decreasing year by year. From the point of view of energy supply in our country, the energy structure of our country is short of oil, less gas and more coal. The self-sufficiency rate of petroleum is only 44.1% in 2011. In terms of vehicle ownership, the number of cars held in our country has reached 78.02 million in 2010, but the number of cars per 1,000 people is only 60, which is quite different from the world average level of ownership (139 per 1,000 people). Only equivalent to the United States in 1918 and Japan in 1965. In the next 30 years, China's automobile ownership will also be in a period of rapid growth. The 2012 auto industry development report points out that the number of cars in China is expected to reach 220 million ~ 250 million vehicles in 2020 and 360 million ~ 390 million vehicles in 2030. The rapid increase in the number of such vehicles is bound to bring rapid oil consumption and great environmental pollution. Therefore, under the background of the continuous increase in the total vehicle ownership, we should vigorously develop energy-efficient and new energy vehicles, while reducing the fuel consumption of bicycles, and at the same time increase the substitution of natural gas, biofuel, electric energy, and hydrogen for oil. It is not only an important measure of energy security strategy of our country, but also an inevitable choice of our automobile energy strategy to slow down the increasing momentum of oil consumption and to control the degree of dependence of oil on foreign countries in a certain range. With reference to authoritative data such as BP World Energy Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook and Automotive Industry Statistics Yearbook, this paper first analyzes the global energy consumption structure, the traditional energy consumption structure and characteristics of China, and the changes of China's transportation energy consumption. It is concluded that the oil reserves in China are low and the self-sufficiency rate of oil consumption is decreasing year by year. Furthermore, according to the requirements of environmental protection, it is pointed out that energy shortage and price rise, environmental protection and vehicle exhaust emission standards, and new energy development are the three major backgrounds for the transformation of China's automobile industry. At the same time, the experience of automobile industry transformation in major countries and the orientation of new energy automobile development are analyzed in detail, in order to find out the direction of global automobile industry transformation, and secondly to analyze the transformation of China's automobile industry. It mainly includes the production, sales and quantity of automobile industry in our country, the policy and goal of promoting the transformation of automobile industry in our country, and the development process of new energy automobile in our country. The development process is mainly based on the status quo of the industrialization of the whole electric vehicle. The production status of new energy vehicles and advantages and disadvantages of new energy vehicles are analyzed. Finally, this paper summarizes the main problems facing the development of new energy vehicles in China, including energy cost, production and marketing scale, purchase and use cost, and then puts forward its own conclusions and policy suggestions in order to promote the good transformation of China's automobile industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.471
本文編號：2420591
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, China's energy (primary energy) consumption has reached 2.61 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2011, which ranks first in the world for two consecutive years, but the oil self-sufficiency rate of our country is decreasing year by year. From the point of view of energy supply in our country, the energy structure of our country is short of oil, less gas and more coal. The self-sufficiency rate of petroleum is only 44.1% in 2011. In terms of vehicle ownership, the number of cars held in our country has reached 78.02 million in 2010, but the number of cars per 1,000 people is only 60, which is quite different from the world average level of ownership (139 per 1,000 people). Only equivalent to the United States in 1918 and Japan in 1965. In the next 30 years, China's automobile ownership will also be in a period of rapid growth. The 2012 auto industry development report points out that the number of cars in China is expected to reach 220 million ~ 250 million vehicles in 2020 and 360 million ~ 390 million vehicles in 2030. The rapid increase in the number of such vehicles is bound to bring rapid oil consumption and great environmental pollution. Therefore, under the background of the continuous increase in the total vehicle ownership, we should vigorously develop energy-efficient and new energy vehicles, while reducing the fuel consumption of bicycles, and at the same time increase the substitution of natural gas, biofuel, electric energy, and hydrogen for oil. It is not only an important measure of energy security strategy of our country, but also an inevitable choice of our automobile energy strategy to slow down the increasing momentum of oil consumption and to control the degree of dependence of oil on foreign countries in a certain range. With reference to authoritative data such as BP World Energy Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook and Automotive Industry Statistics Yearbook, this paper first analyzes the global energy consumption structure, the traditional energy consumption structure and characteristics of China, and the changes of China's transportation energy consumption. It is concluded that the oil reserves in China are low and the self-sufficiency rate of oil consumption is decreasing year by year. Furthermore, according to the requirements of environmental protection, it is pointed out that energy shortage and price rise, environmental protection and vehicle exhaust emission standards, and new energy development are the three major backgrounds for the transformation of China's automobile industry. At the same time, the experience of automobile industry transformation in major countries and the orientation of new energy automobile development are analyzed in detail, in order to find out the direction of global automobile industry transformation, and secondly to analyze the transformation of China's automobile industry. It mainly includes the production, sales and quantity of automobile industry in our country, the policy and goal of promoting the transformation of automobile industry in our country, and the development process of new energy automobile in our country. The development process is mainly based on the status quo of the industrialization of the whole electric vehicle. The production status of new energy vehicles and advantages and disadvantages of new energy vehicles are analyzed. Finally, this paper summarizes the main problems facing the development of new energy vehicles in China, including energy cost, production and marketing scale, purchase and use cost, and then puts forward its own conclusions and policy suggestions in order to promote the good transformation of China's automobile industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.471
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