全壽命周期成本理論在電力設備投資決策中的應用
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-14 15:19
【摘要】：電力是關系到國家經濟社會發(fā)展命脈的戰(zhàn)略性能源。近年來,國家不斷加大對電網的投入,電網建設處于高速發(fā)展階段。電力設備投資是電網企業(yè)固定資產投資的重要組成部分,投資決策的成敗關系到電力企業(yè)的成本、資金利用率乃至企業(yè)在市場化改革中的競爭力和生存能力。目前電力設備采購過程中普遍存在重短期成本輕長期成本的現(xiàn)象,因此在電力設備投資決策過程中,如何從系統(tǒng)整體目標出發(fā),統(tǒng)籌考慮電力設備采購、運行、維護、故障、報廢等全過程,在滿足安全、效能的前提下追求設備全壽命周期成本最低,實現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)最優(yōu)是值得深入研究的一個課題。本文針對傳統(tǒng)電力設備采購過程中偏重于一次性投入因素,對設備后期投入估計不足甚至忽略的特點,將全壽命周期成本(LCC)理論引入電力設備投資決策中。對電力設備全壽命周期成本進行細化,將其劃分為初始投入成本、運行成本、維護成本、故障成本、報廢成本五部分內容。具體工作如下：1、闡述了全壽命周期成本的概念、特點等內容,構建了電力設備全壽命周期費用分解結構(CBS),建立了各組成費用的估算關系式,結合資金的時間價值概念確定了電力設備全壽命周期成本估算模型。2、用區(qū)間理論來處理電力設備參數中存在的不確定性,介紹了區(qū)間的概念、運算等內容,建立了基于區(qū)間分析法的全壽命周期成本模型,運用于具體實例得出結論,選出最優(yōu)方案。3、采用盲數理論來處理電力設備中存在的多種不確定信息,建立基于盲數的全壽命周期成本估算模型,通過開關設備AIS和GIS選型的算例來說明基于盲數理論的全壽命周期成本估算法具有實用性和合理性。4、引入了神經網絡對電力設備進行全壽命周期成本估算可以使復雜的計算過程變得簡單,使具有主觀因素的計算過程變得更為客觀,并且通過對500kV變電站建設中變壓器的四種備選方案進行全壽命周期成本神經網絡分析,選出最經濟的方案。5、用一般凈現(xiàn)值法對電力設備中變壓器和開關設備的兩種備選方案的全壽命周期成本進行了估算,將各項成本在全壽命周期內的具體數據通過表的形式顯示出來,選出最優(yōu)方案。最后將以上介紹的四種估算全壽命周期成本的方法進行了分析比較,總結出它們的優(yōu)點以及各自適用的范圍。6、設計并完成了電力設備全壽命周期成本估算平臺的搭建,實現(xiàn)了電力設備全壽命周期成本的Web發(fā)布。提出了B/S模式下構建電力設備全壽命周期成本管理平臺,客戶只需打開網頁,登錄瀏覽器就可獲取相關電力設備參數信息。讓客戶在采購電力設備時更直觀、方便地做出決策。將全壽命周期成本理論應用于電力設備投資決策中能夠提高采購效率,將設備多階段目標統(tǒng)一起來,達到整體和系統(tǒng)的最優(yōu),具有重要的經濟價值。
[Abstract]:Electric power is the strategic energy related to the national economic and social development. In recent years, the state has been increasing investment in the grid, power grid construction is in a high-speed stage of development. Power equipment investment is an important part of fixed assets investment in power grid enterprises. The success or failure of investment decision is related to the cost of electric power enterprises, the utilization rate of funds, and the competitiveness and survival ability of enterprises in the market-oriented reform. At present, in the process of purchasing power equipment, there is a phenomenon that the short-term cost is more important than the long-term cost. Therefore, in the decision-making process of power equipment investment, how to consider the purchase, operation, maintenance and failure of power equipment from the overall goal of the system as a whole, It is worth further study to pursue the lowest life-cycle cost of equipment under the premise of safety and efficiency in the whole process such as scrap and so on. The realization of system optimization is worthy of further study. In view of the fact that the traditional purchasing process of electric power equipment is focused on one-off input factors and the late investment estimation is not enough or even ignored, this paper introduces the life-cycle cost (LCC) theory into power equipment investment decision making. The whole life cycle cost of power equipment is refined and divided into five parts: initial input cost, operation cost, maintenance cost, fault cost and scrap cost. The main works are as follows: 1. The concept and characteristics of life-cycle cost are expounded, and the (CBS), structure of power equipment life-cycle cost decomposition structure is constructed. Combined with the concept of time value of funds, the cost estimation model of the whole life cycle of power equipment is established. 2. The uncertainty existing in the parameters of power equipment is treated with interval theory, and the concept and operation of interval are introduced. The whole life cycle cost model based on interval analysis is established, and the conclusion is drawn from a concrete example. 3. The blind number theory is used to deal with many kinds of uncertain information in power equipment. The life cycle cost estimation model based on blind number is established, and the feasibility and rationality of the whole life cycle cost estimation method based on blind number theory are illustrated by the examples of AIS and GIS selection of switchgear. The neural network is introduced to estimate the life-cycle cost of power equipment, which makes the complicated calculation process simple and the calculation process with subjective factors more objective. And through the analysis of the four alternatives of transformer in the construction of 500kV substation, the cost of the whole life cycle neural network is analyzed, and the most economical scheme is selected. The total life cycle cost of transformer and switchgear in power equipment is estimated by using the method of general net present value (NPV). The concrete data of each cost in the whole life cycle are displayed through the form of table, and the optimal scheme is selected. Finally, the four methods to estimate the life-cycle cost are analyzed and compared, and their advantages and scope of application are summarized. 6. Finally, a platform for estimating the life-cycle cost of power equipment is designed and completed. The Web issue of the whole life cycle cost of power equipment is realized. In this paper, it is proposed to construct a life-cycle cost management platform for power equipment in B / S mode. Customers need only open the web page and log in to the browser to obtain the relevant power equipment parameter information. Enable customers to make decisions more intuitively and conveniently when purchasing power equipment. The application of life-cycle cost theory to power equipment investment decision-making can improve the purchasing efficiency, unify the multi-stage objectives of equipment, and achieve the overall and systematic optimization, which has important economic value.
【學位授予單位】：太原理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.61;F406.72
[Abstract]:Electric power is the strategic energy related to the national economic and social development. In recent years, the state has been increasing investment in the grid, power grid construction is in a high-speed stage of development. Power equipment investment is an important part of fixed assets investment in power grid enterprises. The success or failure of investment decision is related to the cost of electric power enterprises, the utilization rate of funds, and the competitiveness and survival ability of enterprises in the market-oriented reform. At present, in the process of purchasing power equipment, there is a phenomenon that the short-term cost is more important than the long-term cost. Therefore, in the decision-making process of power equipment investment, how to consider the purchase, operation, maintenance and failure of power equipment from the overall goal of the system as a whole, It is worth further study to pursue the lowest life-cycle cost of equipment under the premise of safety and efficiency in the whole process such as scrap and so on. The realization of system optimization is worthy of further study. In view of the fact that the traditional purchasing process of electric power equipment is focused on one-off input factors and the late investment estimation is not enough or even ignored, this paper introduces the life-cycle cost (LCC) theory into power equipment investment decision making. The whole life cycle cost of power equipment is refined and divided into five parts: initial input cost, operation cost, maintenance cost, fault cost and scrap cost. The main works are as follows: 1. The concept and characteristics of life-cycle cost are expounded, and the (CBS), structure of power equipment life-cycle cost decomposition structure is constructed. Combined with the concept of time value of funds, the cost estimation model of the whole life cycle of power equipment is established. 2. The uncertainty existing in the parameters of power equipment is treated with interval theory, and the concept and operation of interval are introduced. The whole life cycle cost model based on interval analysis is established, and the conclusion is drawn from a concrete example. 3. The blind number theory is used to deal with many kinds of uncertain information in power equipment. The life cycle cost estimation model based on blind number is established, and the feasibility and rationality of the whole life cycle cost estimation method based on blind number theory are illustrated by the examples of AIS and GIS selection of switchgear. The neural network is introduced to estimate the life-cycle cost of power equipment, which makes the complicated calculation process simple and the calculation process with subjective factors more objective. And through the analysis of the four alternatives of transformer in the construction of 500kV substation, the cost of the whole life cycle neural network is analyzed, and the most economical scheme is selected. The total life cycle cost of transformer and switchgear in power equipment is estimated by using the method of general net present value (NPV). The concrete data of each cost in the whole life cycle are displayed through the form of table, and the optimal scheme is selected. Finally, the four methods to estimate the life-cycle cost are analyzed and compared, and their advantages and scope of application are summarized. 6. Finally, a platform for estimating the life-cycle cost of power equipment is designed and completed. The Web issue of the whole life cycle cost of power equipment is realized. In this paper, it is proposed to construct a life-cycle cost management platform for power equipment in B / S mode. Customers need only open the web page and log in to the browser to obtain the relevant power equipment parameter information. Enable customers to make decisions more intuitively and conveniently when purchasing power equipment. The application of life-cycle cost theory to power equipment investment decision-making can improve the purchasing efficiency, unify the multi-stage objectives of equipment, and achieve the overall and systematic optimization, which has important economic value.
【學位授予單位】：太原理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.61;F406.72
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前10條
1 沈廣;蘇海鋒;袁U，
本文編號：2378836
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