【摘要】：本文基于投入產(chǎn)出理論和LMDI分解法,對(duì)1997—2010年間交通運(yùn)輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)及其5個(gè)子行業(yè)能源消耗進(jìn)行測(cè)算,并對(duì)交通運(yùn)輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)碳排放變動(dòng)及其影響因素進(jìn)行研究,建立起直接和間接碳排放因素分解模型,將直接碳排放變動(dòng)分解為能耗效率、行業(yè)規(guī)模等3種效應(yīng),將間接碳排放變動(dòng)分解為完全消耗系數(shù)、行業(yè)規(guī)模等4種效應(yīng)。結(jié)論表明,行業(yè)規(guī)模是導(dǎo)致直接、間接碳排放增加的主要因素,完全消耗系數(shù)效應(yīng)對(duì)碳排放的影響不能忽視,累積貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)到52.42%。而能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的抑制效應(yīng)不明顯,累積貢獻(xiàn)率只達(dá)到間接碳排放的-26.61%,只依靠能耗效率提高不能抑制碳排放的快速增加。所以交通運(yùn)輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)應(yīng)建立新的節(jié)能機(jī)制,通過(guò)進(jìn)口、產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)等多個(gè)手段減少中間環(huán)節(jié)能耗,減少碳排放。
[Abstract]:Based on the input-output theory and LMDI decomposition method, this paper estimates the energy consumption of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry and its five sub-industries from 1997 to 2010, and studies the change of carbon emissions and its influencing factors in the transportation equipment manufacturing industry. The direct and indirect carbon emission factor decomposition models are established. The direct carbon emission variation is decomposed into three effects: energy consumption efficiency, industry scale, and indirect carbon emission change is divided into four effects: complete consumption coefficient and industry scale. The results show that the industry scale is the main factor leading to the increase of direct and indirect carbon emissions. The effect of total consumption coefficient on carbon emissions can not be ignored, and the cumulative contribution rate is 52.42%. However, the inhibitory effect of energy structure adjustment is not obvious, the cumulative contribution rate is only -26.61% of indirect carbon emissions, and the rapid increase of carbon emissions can not be restrained only by the improvement of energy consumption efficiency. Therefore, the transportation equipment manufacturing industry should establish a new energy-saving mechanism, reduce energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions through import, industrial upgrading and other means.
【作者單位】： 北京工業(yè)大學(xué)科技處;北京工業(yè)大學(xué)循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院;北京工業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：北京市重點(diǎn)學(xué)科項(xiàng)目“資源、環(huán)境與循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)”(033000541213004) 2012年教育部人文社科基金青年項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)政府環(huán)境規(guī)制影響低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的理論及實(shí)證研究”(12YJC630183)資助
【分類號(hào)】：X76;F426.4

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本文編號(hào)：2344906