【摘要】：隨著電力行業(yè)的迅速發(fā)展,配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)的重要性也越來越凸顯。目前國家將資金投入到了配電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)中,我國電網(wǎng)的形式也開始從虧損轉(zhuǎn)向盈利。配電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展是社會(huì)發(fā)展、國家進(jìn)步的先行軍,配電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)效果直接關(guān)系著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的加速前進(jìn)。而在配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)過程中,投入資金多、項(xiàng)目工程規(guī)模龐大、需要保障較高的可靠性、安全性等條件,導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目建設(shè)中需要承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高。配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)周期長,樣本資料存在誤差、不確定性強(qiáng)等特點(diǎn),因此使得規(guī)劃過程中的不確定因素很多。配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目是一項(xiàng)具有高度綜合性和技巧性的工作,同時(shí)也是一次具有較多投入與產(chǎn)出、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的決策過程。因此需要對配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素進(jìn)行完善的評價(jià)后,并實(shí)施及時(shí)的防控,才能降低配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文通過對配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中關(guān)鍵問題的研究,提出了比較完善的配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的理論框架和方法體系。同時(shí),配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)的過程,在項(xiàng)目的不同時(shí)期,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策的重要性也會(huì)不同,使得具體管理過程也不同。論文在建立了綜合評價(jià)理論框架及其指標(biāo)體系,綜合考慮政策、技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)和管理等相關(guān)因素,針對配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況建立基于模糊灰色評價(jià)法的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評價(jià)模型,較好地解決了配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目評價(jià)中的指標(biāo)和權(quán)重的科學(xué)性問題。.并以某配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目為例,對其項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了結(jié)合定性與定量指標(biāo)的評價(jià)研究。通過評價(jià)結(jié)果可以看出,配電網(wǎng)經(jīng)營企業(yè)存在著一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),需要加以防控。針對配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)過程中種種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,本文根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論以及以往實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn),提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范策略,以消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素所帶來的危害。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of power industry, the importance of distribution network construction is becoming more and more prominent. At present, the state has invested funds into the construction of distribution network, and the form of power grid in our country has also begun to shift from loss to profit. The development of distribution network is the development of society and the advance of national progress. The construction effect of distribution network project is directly related to the accelerated progress of national economy. In the process of distribution network construction, the project needs to ensure high reliability and safety, which leads to the high risk in the construction of the project. The construction period of distribution network construction project is long, the sample data exists error, and the uncertainty is strong, so there are many uncertain factors in the planning process. Distribution network construction project is a highly comprehensive and technical work, but also a decision-making process with more input and output, high risk. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the risk factors of distribution network construction project and implement timely prevention and control to reduce the risk of distribution network construction project. Based on the research of the key problems in the risk management of distribution network construction project, this paper puts forward a relatively perfect theoretical framework and method system of the distribution network construction project risk management. At the same time, distribution network construction risk management is a dynamic process, in different periods of the project, the importance of risk decision-making will be different, making the specific management process is also different. In this paper, the comprehensive evaluation theory framework and its index system are established, and the comprehensive risk evaluation model based on fuzzy grey evaluation method is established according to the risk situation of distribution network construction projects, considering the relevant factors such as policy, technology, economy and management. The scientific problem of index and weight in the evaluation of distribution network construction project has been solved well. Taking a distribution network construction project as an example, the project risk is evaluated by combining qualitative and quantitative indexes. It can be seen from the evaluation results that there are certain risks in distribution network management enterprises, which need to be prevented and controlled. According to the risk factors in the construction of distribution network, according to the risk management theory and previous practice experience, this paper puts forward the corresponding risk prevention strategy to eliminate the risk or reduce the risk factors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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