【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展對(duì)能源電力需求的不斷增長(zhǎng),以及清潔能源的快速發(fā)展,電力行業(yè)的發(fā)展面臨著巨大的機(jī)遇和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。近些年來(lái)我國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,國(guó)家電網(wǎng)“十二五”期間固定資產(chǎn)投資將達(dá)到2.55萬(wàn)億元,基層供電企業(yè)如何科學(xué)合理的對(duì)固定資產(chǎn)投資實(shí)施管控是擺在企業(yè)發(fā)展道路上的一個(gè)重要問(wèn)題。本文結(jié)合我國(guó)F電力公司案例對(duì)固定資產(chǎn)管控問(wèn)題展開研究,通過(guò)建立投資能力預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)模型,分析影響投資決策的因素以達(dá)到管理和控制的目的。首先,對(duì)當(dāng)前公司投資能力進(jìn)行評(píng)估。以案例的實(shí)際固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)劃和財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)為參數(shù),預(yù)測(cè)規(guī)劃期的利潤(rùn)表、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和現(xiàn)金流量表。通過(guò)對(duì)未來(lái)的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的預(yù)測(cè),測(cè)算投資資本金平衡情況和債務(wù)融資規(guī)模等,達(dá)到了對(duì)企業(yè)對(duì)固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)劃支撐能力的評(píng)估。在對(duì)投資能力做出評(píng)估后,本研究通過(guò)對(duì)案例的多次建模試算,測(cè)算出了在不同業(yè)績(jī)目標(biāo)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度下以及企業(yè)面臨投資規(guī)模變動(dòng)和電力市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)等不確定因素下的企業(yè)面臨的投資決策。在論文的最后,結(jié)合對(duì)未來(lái)市場(chǎng)和自身不確定性因素的分析,做出適合案例電力公司投資管控方案。本研究的創(chuàng)造性成果在于,通過(guò)對(duì)未來(lái)投資期內(nèi)的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的分析,客觀的定量的分析固定資產(chǎn)投資能力,分析了影響固定資產(chǎn)投資的影響因素,對(duì)供電企業(yè)具有較強(qiáng)的理論和實(shí)際意義
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society in China, the demand for energy and electricity is increasing, and the rapid development of clean energy, the development of power industry is facing enormous opportunities and risks. In recent years, the scale of fixed assets investment in China has been continuously expanded, and the fixed assets investment of State Grid will reach 2.55 trillion yuan during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. How to control and control fixed assets investment scientifically and reasonably is an important problem in the development of power supply enterprises. In this paper, based on the case of F Power Company in China, the management and control of fixed assets is studied. Through the establishment of investment capability prediction model, the factors influencing investment decision are analyzed to achieve the purpose of management and control. First of all, to evaluate the current investment ability of the company. Based on the actual fixed asset investment planning and financial data of the case, the profit statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement for the planning period are predicted. By predicting the future financial statements, measuring the balance of investment capital and the scale of debt financing, the evaluation of the enterprise's ability to support the fixed assets investment planning is achieved. After the evaluation of the investment ability, this study tries to model the case several times. The investment decisions faced by enterprises with different performance objectives and risk levels and uncertain factors such as investment scale changes and electricity market fluctuations are calculated. At the end of the paper, combining with the analysis of the future market and its own uncertain factors, a suitable case of power company investment management and control scheme is made. The creative achievement of this study lies in the analysis of the financial statements in the future investment period, the objective and quantitative analysis of the fixed assets investment ability, and the analysis of the influencing factors of the fixed assets investment. It has strong theoretical and practical significance for power supply enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F426.61

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 邵宏;;淺談電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃的經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)[J];電力學(xué)報(bào);2005年04期

2 羅鳳章,肖峻,王成山,張永伍,郭鐵軍;計(jì)及電價(jià)波動(dòng)的電網(wǎng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)估區(qū)間法[J];電網(wǎng)技術(shù);2005年08期

3 劉躍新;熊浩清;羅漢武;;智能電網(wǎng)成本效益分析及測(cè)算模型研究[J];華東電力;2010年06期

4 梅丹;我國(guó)上市公司固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模財(cái)務(wù)影響因素研究[J];管理科學(xué);2005年05期

5 高凡修;;利用回歸分析技術(shù)改進(jìn)銷售百分比法的案例研究[J];會(huì)計(jì)之友;2006年11期

6 王麗華,王傳軍,孫慧靈,趙凱;農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)建設(shè)改造工程效益計(jì)算方法的探討(連載1)[J];農(nóng)村電氣化;1999年03期

7 石美娟;ARIMA模型在上海市全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J];數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)與管理;2005年01期

8 劉金全,于惠春;我國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間影響關(guān)系的實(shí)證分析[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)研究;2002年01期

9 黃力平;運(yùn)用投入產(chǎn)出法建立財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表預(yù)測(cè)模型[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與預(yù)測(cè);1996年04期

10 劉先濤;高軍;梁琳;;油氣田開發(fā)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)模式[J];天然氣工業(yè);2009年08期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前9條

1 何曉穎;基于計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的電力投資分析與模型研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2011年

2 劉曉媚;B企業(yè)銀行資金規(guī)劃案例分析[D];華南理工大學(xué);2011年

3 楊曉武;石油企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估研究[D];北京郵電大學(xué);2011年

4 孫新果;企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)方法的研究和應(yīng)用[D];北京工業(yè)大學(xué);2001年

5 陳蓓;實(shí)物期權(quán)理論在企業(yè)投資決策中的應(yīng)用[D];電子科技大學(xué);2003年

6 詹建平;上市公司多分類財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)模型及其應(yīng)用研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2008年

7 吳張嫻;我國(guó)電網(wǎng)投融資分析[D];廈門大學(xué);2009年

8 江華;基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的航空公司經(jīng)營(yíng)預(yù)測(cè)研究[D];江西理工大學(xué);2008年

9 馬博;電網(wǎng)建設(shè)投資評(píng)估與優(yōu)化方法應(yīng)用研究[D];華北電力大學(xué)（北京）;2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：2265954