基于貝葉斯和決策樹方法的汽車電子研發(fā)項目變更決策模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-12 07:15
【摘要】：隨著移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代的到來，新科技如雨后春筍，以前所未有的速度在各個領域涌現(xiàn)出來。根據(jù)相關統(tǒng)計，在當前的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)中，70%的創(chuàng)新來自于汽車電子技術。同樣，從PC、手機的發(fā)展情況來看，我們有足夠的信心預測，汽車電子將很快成為汽車行業(yè)的兵家必爭之地，汽車電子技術產(chǎn)品也成為各個整車廠的兵戎相見之地。 YFVE公司，作為上汽集團的子公司，雖然在傳統(tǒng)的汽車內(nèi)外飾，低端的汽車電子產(chǎn)品領域占據(jù)著國內(nèi)的頭把交椅，并在國際上也占據(jù)一定的市場份額，但是對于帶有高科技的創(chuàng)新技術的高端汽車電子產(chǎn)品，卻還在起步階段。而經(jīng)過前兩年的嘗試，雖然公司的汽車電子研發(fā)跌了跟頭，最終以失敗收場。但是在這個研發(fā)過程中，暴露出來的是首要問題是對于帶有多變性的高科技的研發(fā)項目的變更管理決策的能力的不足。對于帶有創(chuàng)新性質的高科技汽車電子項目，由于鮮有可以借鑒的經(jīng)驗，并且在技術上存在著很大的未知性，所以傳統(tǒng)的項目管理方式，尤其是對于變更的管理決策方式并不能滿足這樣的汽車電子研發(fā)項目的需求。 針對汽車電子研發(fā)項目所發(fā)生過的項目變更管理問題，我們需要找到一種科學的，系統(tǒng)的方法來輔助我們管理，尤其是對于不確定性的技術變更的分析和決策的管理。 本文將首先介紹汽車電子技術的發(fā)展歷史和現(xiàn)狀，然后闡述YFVE公司在進行研發(fā)項目的變革管理決策中所發(fā)生的問題。然后在第三章將著力建立一個決策模型。主要是基于貝葉斯決策方法對變更的先驗概率進行分析，并得到更加合理的準確的后驗概率。之后采用決策樹的方法，對于技術變更的可能性作一個整體的分析比較，并通過收益分析，，最終選擇出可能會帶來最大收益的決定。最后，結合今年YFVE公司拿到的新高端研發(fā)項目的實際使用案例，闡述該模型在工作中的實際運用情況及效果，從而有效的證明該模型的科學性及可行性。
[Abstract]:With the arrival of the mobile Internet era, new technologies are springing up and emerging in various fields at an unprecedented speed. According to relevant statistics, 70% of the innovation in the current automotive industry comes from automotive electronics technology. Similarly, judging from the development of PC, mobile phones, we are confident enough to predict that automotive electronics will soon become a war taker in the automotive industry. YFVE, a subsidiary of SAIC, although in the traditional automotive interior and exterior decoration, the low-end automotive electronics field occupies the top position in the domestic market. It also occupies a certain market share in the world, but it is still in its infancy for the high-end automotive electronics with high-tech innovation technology. And after two years of trial, although the company's automotive electronics research and development fell, and finally failed. However, in this research and development process, it is revealed that the most important problem is the lack of the ability to make change management decisions for hi-tech R & D projects with variability. For high-tech automotive electronics projects with innovative nature, because there are few experiences to learn from, and there is a great uncertainty in technology, so the traditional project management methods, Especially for the change management decision-making method can not meet the needs of such automotive electronics R & D projects. In order to solve the problem of project change management in automotive electronics R & D projects, we need to find a scientific and systematic method to assist us in management, especially in the analysis and decision management of uncertain technical changes. This paper first introduces the development history and current situation of automotive electronics technology, and then expounds the problems occurred in the decision making of change management for R & D projects in YFVE Company. Then in the third chapter will focus on the establishment of a decision model. The prior probability of change is analyzed based on Bayesian decision method, and a more reasonable and accurate posterior probability is obtained. Then the decision tree is used to analyze and compare the possibility of technology change, and through the income analysis, the decision that may bring the maximum profit is selected. Finally, combined with the actual use case of the new high-end R & D project obtained by YFVE Company this year, this paper expounds the actual application and effect of the model in the work, so as to effectively prove the scientific nature and feasibility of the model.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TP18;F426.471
本文編號：2238289
[Abstract]:With the arrival of the mobile Internet era, new technologies are springing up and emerging in various fields at an unprecedented speed. According to relevant statistics, 70% of the innovation in the current automotive industry comes from automotive electronics technology. Similarly, judging from the development of PC, mobile phones, we are confident enough to predict that automotive electronics will soon become a war taker in the automotive industry. YFVE, a subsidiary of SAIC, although in the traditional automotive interior and exterior decoration, the low-end automotive electronics field occupies the top position in the domestic market. It also occupies a certain market share in the world, but it is still in its infancy for the high-end automotive electronics with high-tech innovation technology. And after two years of trial, although the company's automotive electronics research and development fell, and finally failed. However, in this research and development process, it is revealed that the most important problem is the lack of the ability to make change management decisions for hi-tech R & D projects with variability. For high-tech automotive electronics projects with innovative nature, because there are few experiences to learn from, and there is a great uncertainty in technology, so the traditional project management methods, Especially for the change management decision-making method can not meet the needs of such automotive electronics R & D projects. In order to solve the problem of project change management in automotive electronics R & D projects, we need to find a scientific and systematic method to assist us in management, especially in the analysis and decision management of uncertain technical changes. This paper first introduces the development history and current situation of automotive electronics technology, and then expounds the problems occurred in the decision making of change management for R & D projects in YFVE Company. Then in the third chapter will focus on the establishment of a decision model. The prior probability of change is analyzed based on Bayesian decision method, and a more reasonable and accurate posterior probability is obtained. Then the decision tree is used to analyze and compare the possibility of technology change, and through the income analysis, the decision that may bring the maximum profit is selected. Finally, combined with the actual use case of the new high-end R & D project obtained by YFVE Company this year, this paper expounds the actual application and effect of the model in the work, so as to effectively prove the scientific nature and feasibility of the model.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TP18;F426.471
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