【摘要】：浙江省能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)以煤炭為主,而且能源95%以上都需要從外省或者國外調(diào)入,能源安全和能源消費(fèi)所帶來的環(huán)境問題日趨凸顯。大力發(fā)展核能、太陽能、風(fēng)能等清潔新能源,改變現(xiàn)有的能源結(jié)構(gòu),不僅能夠緩解能源消耗所帶來的環(huán)境壓力,還可以減輕浙江省能源消耗對(duì)外省的依賴和掣肘程度。能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整之后減輕了節(jié)能、污染物排放和碳排放的壓力,但能源成本的上升對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、就業(yè)造成沖擊。本文通過對(duì)能源結(jié)構(gòu)的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整,尋找節(jié)能減排約束下的浙江省最優(yōu)能源結(jié)構(gòu)比例,并模擬探究這一調(diào)整對(duì)浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境的影響分析,平衡浙江省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與環(huán)境保護(hù),從而實(shí)現(xiàn)浙江經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 本文首先通過灰色系統(tǒng)模型預(yù)測無約束下的浙江省2015年能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu),得出該消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)下的節(jié)能減排指標(biāo)只達(dá)到浙江省規(guī)劃目標(biāo)的72%,結(jié)構(gòu)亟待優(yōu)化。再構(gòu)建多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型求解出浙江省各種節(jié)能與減排多重約束下的最優(yōu)能源結(jié)構(gòu),結(jié)果表明完成節(jié)能減排規(guī)劃下的浙江省2015年最優(yōu)一次能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)為：煤炭、石油、天然氣、一次電力及其他的比重分別為55%、19%、6.79%、19.21%。不同節(jié)能減排約束下的浙江省能源結(jié)構(gòu),其不同的能源成本與減排費(fèi)用對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、就業(yè)等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量及環(huán)境的影響也有所不同。 然后,分別從模型結(jié)構(gòu)(生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)和要素市場、貿(mào)易、經(jīng)濟(jì)主體行為與最終需求以及宏觀均衡與閉合規(guī)則)和數(shù)學(xué)描述(價(jià)格模塊、產(chǎn)出和需求模塊、貿(mào)易模塊、機(jī)構(gòu)模塊、市場均衡模塊、動(dòng)態(tài)遞歸模塊)構(gòu)建區(qū)域動(dòng)態(tài)能源環(huán)境可計(jì)算一般均衡模型來模擬能源成本上升與減排費(fèi)用減少對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)及環(huán)境的影響。 最后,以2010年的數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)編制的浙江省能源環(huán)境SAM利用構(gòu)建的浙江省能源環(huán)境動(dòng)態(tài)CGE模擬能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化結(jié)果表明隨著節(jié)能減排力度的加大,能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整導(dǎo)致的能源成本上升對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、就業(yè)、出口、進(jìn)口等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)要素都呈負(fù)面經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),而且其影響程度非線性遞增；能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整導(dǎo)致的減排費(fèi)用的減少卻有利于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長,其影響程度也呈非線性遞增�？傮w來說,完成節(jié)能減排規(guī)劃目標(biāo)約束是以犧牲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和人口就業(yè)為代價(jià)的,而且在進(jìn)一步減排超標(biāo)10%的情況下,還在浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的容忍限度之內(nèi)。 模擬結(jié)果還說明,能源結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化調(diào)整引起的能源成本上升雖然對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)造成一定的沖擊,但是有利于環(huán)境的改善。而能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化后減排投入節(jié)約轉(zhuǎn)移到生產(chǎn)部門經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出中新增的污染物與減排部門投入減少導(dǎo)致的污染物排放增加兩者疊加構(gòu)成了減排費(fèi)用變化的環(huán)境沖擊,基于環(huán)境質(zhì)量考慮的能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整將會(huì)大打折扣,所以要實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)一環(huán)境的協(xié)同發(fā)展,需要在能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整的同時(shí)繼續(xù)加大減排投入。
[Abstract]:The energy consumption structure in Zhejiang Province is dominated by coal, and more than 95% of the energy needs to be transferred from other provinces or abroad. The environmental problems brought by energy security and energy consumption are becoming increasingly prominent. Vigorously developing clean new energy, such as nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy and so on, and changing the existing energy structure, can not only alleviate the environmental pressure brought by energy consumption, but also reduce the dependence and constraint of energy consumption on other provinces in Zhejiang Province. The optimization and adjustment of energy structure reduces the pressure of energy saving, pollutant emission and carbon emission, but the rising energy cost has an impact on economic growth and employment. Through the strategic adjustment of energy structure, this paper seeks the optimal proportion of energy structure in Zhejiang Province under the constraint of energy saving and emission reduction, and simulates and explores the impact of this adjustment on the economy and environment of Zhejiang Province, and balances the economic development and environmental protection of Zhejiang Province. Thus realizing the coordinated development of Zhejiang economy and environment. In this paper, the energy consumption structure of Zhejiang Province in 2015 is forecasted by grey system model, and the energy saving and emission reduction target under this consumption structure can only reach 72of the planning target of Zhejiang province, and the structure needs to be optimized urgently. The multi-objective programming model is constructed to solve the optimal energy structure of Zhejiang province under the multiple constraints of energy saving and emission reduction. The results show that the optimal primary energy consumption structure of Zhejiang Province in 2015 is coal, oil and natural gas. The proportion of electricity and other things is 55 and 6.79, respectively, and 19.21. Under the constraints of energy conservation and emission reduction, different energy cost and emission reduction cost of Zhejiang Province have different effects on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, employment and environment. Then, from the model structure (production activity and factor market, trade, economic agent behavior and final demand, macro equilibrium and closure rules) and mathematical description (price module, output and demand module, trade module, institutional module, respectively), Market equilibrium module, dynamic recursive module) to build regional dynamic energy environment computable general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of energy cost rise and emission reduction cost reduction on macroeconomic and environment. Finally, based on the data of 2010, the energy environment SAM of Zhejiang Province is used to construct the energy environment dynamic CGE simulation energy structure optimization results show that with the increase of energy conservation and emission reduction, The increase of energy cost caused by the adjustment of energy structure has negative economic effects on macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, employment, export, import and so on, and its influence degree is increasing non-linear. The reduction of emission reduction cost caused by energy structure adjustment is beneficial to the growth of macro-economy, and its influence degree is also nonlinear increasing. In general, the restriction of energy saving and emission reduction planning is at the expense of economic growth and employment, and it is also within the tolerance limit of economic and social development in Zhejiang province if the emission reduction is more than 10%. The simulation results also show that the increase of energy cost caused by the optimization and adjustment of energy structure is beneficial to the improvement of the environment although it has a certain impact on the macro economy. The environmental impact of the change of emission reduction cost is caused by the combination of the new pollutants added in the economic output of the production sector and the increase of the pollutant emissions caused by the reduction of the input in the emission reduction sector after the energy structure optimization has been transferred to the economic output of the production sector. The adjustment of energy structure based on environmental quality will be greatly reduced, so in order to realize the coordinated development of economy-environment, it is necessary to continue to increase the input of emission reduction while optimizing the energy structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.2;F205

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