【摘要】：石化產(chǎn)業(yè)作為一國的基礎產(chǎn)業(yè),投資強度高、工程技術密集、產(chǎn)品加工鏈長,對國家工業(yè)產(chǎn)值快速增長貢獻率大。縱觀全球強國的崛起,均離不開石化行業(yè)的支撐。時至今日,石化產(chǎn)業(yè)的原油加工量和乙烯產(chǎn)量與鋼產(chǎn)量、發(fā)電量等一樣,仍然是衡量一個國家經(jīng)濟是否發(fā)達的核心標志。經(jīng)過近50年的奮斗,我國已經(jīng)成為舉世公認的石化大國,2011年我國的煉油能力為世界第二,石化產(chǎn)值已占國內(nèi)工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的1/6,名副其實地成為傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。然而,作為一個“新興加轉(zhuǎn)軌”的產(chǎn)業(yè),我國由石化大國走向石化強國還需要一個相當漫長的過程。總起來說,石化項目的分布不均、生產(chǎn)門類覆蓋不足,產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條效率不高是制約我國石化騰飛的瓶頸。要打破這個瓶頸,無疑還需要我們綜合權(quán)衡,實施具有戰(zhàn)略意義的石化項目。 但是,我們必須認識到,石化項目的實施對社會將帶來諸多的不利影響,會引發(fā)區(qū)域內(nèi)包括經(jīng)濟、政治、安全等領域的穩(wěn)定風險,同時,石化項目污染嚴重,事故率高,且易發(fā)生連鎖性反應,一旦不慎,就會對區(qū)域內(nèi)的自然生態(tài)環(huán)境造成不可逆的損害。石化項目的這些特點決定了其屬于“敏感類項目”,因此,對于重大石化項目的前期推進工作就必然要包含認真、慎重、負責的社會穩(wěn)定風險評估。石化項目的兩面性要求我們既要抓住機遇,迎頭趕上,又不能操之過急,大干快上。要在科學發(fā)展觀和可持續(xù)發(fā)展思路的指導下,充分考量石化項目的社會效應、環(huán)境效應。努力讓石化項目的落成投產(chǎn)所帶來的外部性能夠為廣大民眾所接受,以期達到整個社會福利的最大化。 本文就是從源頭上考察石化項目影響社會穩(wěn)定的節(jié)點。依據(jù)相關理論,追朔風險源,把握節(jié)點,在較為完整的覆蓋各風險節(jié)點的基礎上,通過構(gòu)筑模型等方式對其社會穩(wěn)定風險進行評估。此外,研究中發(fā)現(xiàn)的大量實例表明,相當部分的石化項目是通過影響自然環(huán)境進而引發(fā)社會穩(wěn)定風險。因此,評估石化項目對自然環(huán)境的影響,是對其社會穩(wěn)定風險評估的重中之重,應當具有一票否決的作用。有鑒于此,本文在對石化項目進行社會穩(wěn)定風險評估時,將其對自然環(huán)境領域的社會穩(wěn)定風險予以了單獨考察,并在傳統(tǒng)的評估方法之上,提出基于風險承載力角度的自然環(huán)境穩(wěn)定風險評估。 論文主要包括五個部分： 1.重大石化項目社會穩(wěn)定風險評估的意義背景和相關研究。主要描述了我國石化行業(yè)當前概況和相關概念,簡單介紹了一些項目社會穩(wěn)定風險理論研究和實踐研究。這一部分主要是對重大石化項目的社會穩(wěn)定風險評估研究的必要性的現(xiàn)實依據(jù)進行闡述。 2.對重大石化項目社會穩(wěn)定風險評估相關概念的表述和對社會穩(wěn)定風險評估機理的分析。首先厘清重大工程項目、重大石化項目、重大石化項目自然環(huán)境風險承載力的相關概念。為將承載力概念從生態(tài)研究領域引入石化項目所處的自然環(huán)境做出理論鋪墊。進而對社會燃燒理論,利益相關者理論和可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論做分析,為后文的系統(tǒng)評估打下了基礎。 3.石化項目社會穩(wěn)定風險評估體系的建立。通過將社會燃燒理論、利益相關者理論的分析,構(gòu)建起社會環(huán)境穩(wěn)定風險評估指標體系。整個指標體系包括五個一級指標和十八個二級指標,所選取的這些指標能較為全面、科學、系統(tǒng)的覆蓋社會環(huán)境各個方面的風險點。通過AHP法、專家打分法等模型對指標數(shù)據(jù)進行處理,根據(jù)三分法確定石化項目的社會環(huán)境穩(wěn)定風險水平。 4.石化項目自然環(huán)境風險承載力評估體系的建立。在深入分析文獻資料、咨詢石化項目從業(yè)人員、對石化項目生產(chǎn)特征和技術經(jīng)濟特性具有一定了解的基礎之上,得出19個變量指標。通過生態(tài)足跡模型和狀態(tài)空間模型構(gòu)建出合乎邏輯的石化項目自然環(huán)境風險承載力模型,利用此模型,將對石化項目的自然環(huán)境風險評估轉(zhuǎn)化為對當前項目的承載空間的承載狀態(tài)進行評估,從而確定石化項目的自然環(huán)境風險承載力水平。 5.總結(jié)與展望。該部分總結(jié)前文的一些研究成果,通過在構(gòu)筑指標體系的研究過程中發(fā)現(xiàn)的重要問題進行了披露。并在結(jié)合當前國情的情況下,提出了對石化項目社會穩(wěn)定風險評估的一些建議。
[Abstract]:Petrochemical industry, as a basic industry of a country, has high investment intensity, intensive engineering technology, long product processing chain and great contribution to the rapid growth of national industrial output value. After nearly 50 years of struggle, China has become a recognized petrochemical country. In 2011, China's refining capacity is the second largest in the world. Petrochemical output value has accounted for 1/6 of the domestic industrial output value, and it has become a pillar industry of traditional economy. In general, the uneven distribution of petrochemical projects, insufficient coverage of production categories, and inefficient industrial chain are the bottlenecks restricting the development of China's petrochemical industry. Petrochemical projects.
However, we must realize that the implementation of petrochemical projects will bring a lot of adverse impacts on society, which will lead to regional stability risks including economic, political, security and other fields. At the same time, petrochemical projects have serious pollution, high accident rate and are prone to chain reactions. Once careless, it will cause irreversible impacts on the natural ecological environment in the region. These characteristics of petrochemical projects determine that they belong to "sensitive projects". Therefore, the early promotion of major petrochemical projects must include serious, prudent and responsible risk assessment of social stability. Under the guidance of scientific outlook on development and the idea of sustainable development, the social and environmental effects of petrochemical projects should be fully considered, and the externalities brought about by the completion and commissioning of petrochemical projects should be accepted by the general public in order to maximize the social welfare.
Based on relevant theories, tracing back the sources of risks, grasping the nodes, and on the basis of more complete coverage of the risk nodes, this paper evaluates the social stability risks by constructing models. In addition, a large number of examples found in the study show that a considerable part of petrochemical projects. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of petrochemical projects on the natural environment is the most important part of the social stability risk assessment and should have a veto effect. In view of this, this paper will evaluate the social stability risk of petrochemical projects in the field of natural environment. The risk of social stability is investigated separately, and on the basis of traditional assessment methods, the risk assessment of natural environment stability based on risk bearing capacity is proposed.
The thesis mainly consists of five parts.
1. Significance background and related research on social stability risk assessment of major petrochemical projects. This paper mainly describes the current situation and related concepts of China's petrochemical industry, and briefly introduces some theoretical and practical research on social stability risk of major petrochemical projects. Realistic basis for elaboration.
2. The related concepts of social stability risk assessment of major petrochemical projects and the mechanism of social stability risk assessment are described. Firstly, the concepts of natural environment risk bearing capacity of major petrochemical projects, major petrochemical projects and major petrochemical projects are clarified. However, the environment makes a theoretical groundwork, and then analyzes social combustion theory, stakeholder theory and sustainable development theory, which lays the foundation for the later systematic evaluation.
3. Establishment of social stability risk assessment system for petrochemical projects. Through the analysis of social burning theory and stakeholder theory, a risk assessment index system for social environment stability is established. The whole index system includes five first-level indicators and eighteen second-level indicators. Through AHP method, expert scoring method and other models to deal with the index data, according to the three-part method to determine the social environmental stability risk level of petrochemical projects.
4. Establishment of natural environmental risk bearing capacity assessment system for petrochemical projects. Based on in-depth analysis of literature, consulting petrochemical project practitioners, and having a certain understanding of petrochemical project production characteristics and technical and economic characteristics, 19 variable indicators are obtained. The natural environmental risk bearing capacity model of petrochemical project is used to transform the natural environmental risk assessment of petrochemical project into the assessment of the bearing space of the current project so as to determine the natural environmental risk bearing capacity of petrochemical project.
5. Summarize and prospect. This part summarizes the previous research results, reveals the important issues found in the process of constructing the index system, and puts forward some suggestions on the social stability risk assessment of petrochemical projects in the light of the current national conditions.
【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：D630;F426.722

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