【摘要】：石化產(chǎn)業(yè)作為一國(guó)的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),投資強(qiáng)度高、工程技術(shù)密集、產(chǎn)品加工鏈長(zhǎng),對(duì)國(guó)家工業(yè)產(chǎn)值快速增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)率大�？v觀全球強(qiáng)國(guó)的崛起,均離不開石化行業(yè)的支撐。時(shí)至今日,石化產(chǎn)業(yè)的原油加工量和乙烯產(chǎn)量與鋼產(chǎn)量、發(fā)電量等一樣,仍然是衡量一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)是否發(fā)達(dá)的核心標(biāo)志。經(jīng)過近50年的奮斗,我國(guó)已經(jīng)成為舉世公認(rèn)的石化大國(guó),2011年我國(guó)的煉油能力為世界第二,石化產(chǎn)值已占國(guó)內(nèi)工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的1/6,名副其實(shí)地成為傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。然而,作為一個(gè)“新興加轉(zhuǎn)軌”的產(chǎn)業(yè),我國(guó)由石化大國(guó)走向石化強(qiáng)國(guó)還需要一個(gè)相當(dāng)漫長(zhǎng)的過程�？偲饋�(lái)說(shuō),石化項(xiàng)目的分布不均、生產(chǎn)門類覆蓋不足,產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條效率不高是制約我國(guó)石化騰飛的瓶頸。要打破這個(gè)瓶頸,無(wú)疑還需要我們綜合權(quán)衡,實(shí)施具有戰(zhàn)略意義的石化項(xiàng)目。 但是,我們必須認(rèn)識(shí)到,石化項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施對(duì)社會(huì)將帶來(lái)諸多的不利影響,會(huì)引發(fā)區(qū)域內(nèi)包括經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治、安全等領(lǐng)域的穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn),同時(shí),石化項(xiàng)目污染嚴(yán)重,事故率高,且易發(fā)生連鎖性反應(yīng),一旦不慎,就會(huì)對(duì)區(qū)域內(nèi)的自然生態(tài)環(huán)境造成不可逆的損害。石化項(xiàng)目的這些特點(diǎn)決定了其屬于“敏感類項(xiàng)目”,因此,對(duì)于重大石化項(xiàng)目的前期推進(jìn)工作就必然要包含認(rèn)真、慎重、負(fù)責(zé)的社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。石化項(xiàng)目的兩面性要求我們既要抓住機(jī)遇,迎頭趕上,又不能操之過急,大干快上。要在科學(xué)發(fā)展觀和可持續(xù)發(fā)展思路的指導(dǎo)下,充分考量石化項(xiàng)目的社會(huì)效應(yīng)、環(huán)境效應(yīng)。努力讓石化項(xiàng)目的落成投產(chǎn)所帶來(lái)的外部性能夠?yàn)閺V大民眾所接受,以期達(dá)到整個(gè)社會(huì)福利的最大化。 本文就是從源頭上考察石化項(xiàng)目影響社會(huì)穩(wěn)定的節(jié)點(diǎn)。依據(jù)相關(guān)理論,追朔風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源,把握節(jié)點(diǎn),在較為完整的覆蓋各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)節(jié)點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上,通過構(gòu)筑模型等方式對(duì)其社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估。此外,研究中發(fā)現(xiàn)的大量實(shí)例表明,相當(dāng)部分的石化項(xiàng)目是通過影響自然環(huán)境進(jìn)而引發(fā)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此,評(píng)估石化項(xiàng)目對(duì)自然環(huán)境的影響,是對(duì)其社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的重中之重,應(yīng)當(dāng)具有一票否決的作用。有鑒于此,本文在對(duì)石化項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估時(shí),將其對(duì)自然環(huán)境領(lǐng)域的社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)予以了單獨(dú)考察,并在傳統(tǒng)的評(píng)估方法之上,提出基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承載力角度的自然環(huán)境穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。 論文主要包括五個(gè)部分： 1.重大石化項(xiàng)目社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的意義背景和相關(guān)研究。主要描述了我國(guó)石化行業(yè)當(dāng)前概況和相關(guān)概念,簡(jiǎn)單介紹了一些項(xiàng)目社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論研究和實(shí)踐研究。這一部分主要是對(duì)重大石化項(xiàng)目的社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究的必要性的現(xiàn)實(shí)依據(jù)進(jìn)行闡述。 2.對(duì)重大石化項(xiàng)目社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估相關(guān)概念的表述和對(duì)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估機(jī)理的分析。首先厘清重大工程項(xiàng)目、重大石化項(xiàng)目、重大石化項(xiàng)目自然環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承載力的相關(guān)概念。為將承載力概念從生態(tài)研究領(lǐng)域引入石化項(xiàng)目所處的自然環(huán)境做出理論鋪墊。進(jìn)而對(duì)社會(huì)燃燒理論,利益相關(guān)者理論和可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論做分析,為后文的系統(tǒng)評(píng)估打下了基礎(chǔ)。 3.石化項(xiàng)目社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系的建立。通過將社會(huì)燃燒理論、利益相關(guān)者理論的分析,構(gòu)建起社會(huì)環(huán)境穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系。整個(gè)指標(biāo)體系包括五個(gè)一級(jí)指標(biāo)和十八個(gè)二級(jí)指標(biāo),所選取的這些指標(biāo)能較為全面、科學(xué)、系統(tǒng)的覆蓋社會(huì)環(huán)境各個(gè)方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)點(diǎn)。通過AHP法、專家打分法等模型對(duì)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行處理,根據(jù)三分法確定石化項(xiàng)目的社會(huì)環(huán)境穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平。 4.石化項(xiàng)目自然環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承載力評(píng)估體系的建立。在深入分析文獻(xiàn)資料、咨詢石化項(xiàng)目從業(yè)人員、對(duì)石化項(xiàng)目生產(chǎn)特征和技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)特性具有一定了解的基礎(chǔ)之上,得出19個(gè)變量指標(biāo)。通過生態(tài)足跡模型和狀態(tài)空間模型構(gòu)建出合乎邏輯的石化項(xiàng)目自然環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承載力模型,利用此模型,將對(duì)石化項(xiàng)目的自然環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估轉(zhuǎn)化為對(duì)當(dāng)前項(xiàng)目的承載空間的承載狀態(tài)進(jìn)行評(píng)估,從而確定石化項(xiàng)目的自然環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承載力水平。 5.總結(jié)與展望。該部分總結(jié)前文的一些研究成果,通過在構(gòu)筑指標(biāo)體系的研究過程中發(fā)現(xiàn)的重要問題進(jìn)行了披露。并在結(jié)合當(dāng)前國(guó)情的情況下,提出了對(duì)石化項(xiàng)目社會(huì)穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的一些建議。
[Abstract]:Petrochemical industry, as a basic industry of a country, has high investment intensity, intensive engineering technology, long product processing chain and great contribution to the rapid growth of national industrial output value. After nearly 50 years of struggle, China has become a recognized petrochemical country. In 2011, China's refining capacity is the second largest in the world. Petrochemical output value has accounted for 1/6 of the domestic industrial output value, and it has become a pillar industry of traditional economy. In general, the uneven distribution of petrochemical projects, insufficient coverage of production categories, and inefficient industrial chain are the bottlenecks restricting the development of China's petrochemical industry. Petrochemical projects.
However, we must realize that the implementation of petrochemical projects will bring a lot of adverse impacts on society, which will lead to regional stability risks including economic, political, security and other fields. At the same time, petrochemical projects have serious pollution, high accident rate and are prone to chain reactions. Once careless, it will cause irreversible impacts on the natural ecological environment in the region. These characteristics of petrochemical projects determine that they belong to "sensitive projects". Therefore, the early promotion of major petrochemical projects must include serious, prudent and responsible risk assessment of social stability. Under the guidance of scientific outlook on development and the idea of sustainable development, the social and environmental effects of petrochemical projects should be fully considered, and the externalities brought about by the completion and commissioning of petrochemical projects should be accepted by the general public in order to maximize the social welfare.
Based on relevant theories, tracing back the sources of risks, grasping the nodes, and on the basis of more complete coverage of the risk nodes, this paper evaluates the social stability risks by constructing models. In addition, a large number of examples found in the study show that a considerable part of petrochemical projects. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of petrochemical projects on the natural environment is the most important part of the social stability risk assessment and should have a veto effect. In view of this, this paper will evaluate the social stability risk of petrochemical projects in the field of natural environment. The risk of social stability is investigated separately, and on the basis of traditional assessment methods, the risk assessment of natural environment stability based on risk bearing capacity is proposed.
The thesis mainly consists of five parts.
1. Significance background and related research on social stability risk assessment of major petrochemical projects. This paper mainly describes the current situation and related concepts of China's petrochemical industry, and briefly introduces some theoretical and practical research on social stability risk of major petrochemical projects. Realistic basis for elaboration.
2. The related concepts of social stability risk assessment of major petrochemical projects and the mechanism of social stability risk assessment are described. Firstly, the concepts of natural environment risk bearing capacity of major petrochemical projects, major petrochemical projects and major petrochemical projects are clarified. However, the environment makes a theoretical groundwork, and then analyzes social combustion theory, stakeholder theory and sustainable development theory, which lays the foundation for the later systematic evaluation.
3. Establishment of social stability risk assessment system for petrochemical projects. Through the analysis of social burning theory and stakeholder theory, a risk assessment index system for social environment stability is established. The whole index system includes five first-level indicators and eighteen second-level indicators. Through AHP method, expert scoring method and other models to deal with the index data, according to the three-part method to determine the social environmental stability risk level of petrochemical projects.
4. Establishment of natural environmental risk bearing capacity assessment system for petrochemical projects. Based on in-depth analysis of literature, consulting petrochemical project practitioners, and having a certain understanding of petrochemical project production characteristics and technical and economic characteristics, 19 variable indicators are obtained. The natural environmental risk bearing capacity model of petrochemical project is used to transform the natural environmental risk assessment of petrochemical project into the assessment of the bearing space of the current project so as to determine the natural environmental risk bearing capacity of petrochemical project.
5. Summarize and prospect. This part summarizes the previous research results, reveals the important issues found in the process of constructing the index system, and puts forward some suggestions on the social stability risk assessment of petrochemical projects in the light of the current national conditions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：D630;F426.722

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