基于離散選擇模型的家庭乘用車消費(fèi)者選擇行為研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-07 11:29
【摘要】：能源環(huán)境問題已經(jīng)成為21世紀(jì)全球范圍內(nèi)的重要議題之一。汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)不僅在經(jīng)濟(jì)方面已經(jīng)成為影響我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要產(chǎn)業(yè)之一,也是在能源環(huán)境方面與之密切相關(guān)的產(chǎn)業(yè)。自我國(guó)加入WTO以來,汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)入了空前高速發(fā)展階段。到2010年,我國(guó)汽車新車市場(chǎng)的銷售規(guī)模已經(jīng)超過美國(guó)歷史最高水平；截止2011年6月,我國(guó)汽車保有量超過日本,成為世界第二大汽車保有國(guó)。而進(jìn)入2012年以來,我國(guó)汽車的居民普及率已經(jīng)達(dá)到20%,真正進(jìn)入了“汽車社會(huì)”時(shí)代。隨著汽車社會(huì)的到來,汽車除了為人們的出行帶來了極大方便,逐步改變了社會(huì)大眾的出行習(xí)慣,也帶來了能源消費(fèi)的快速增長(zhǎng)、城市空氣污染日趨嚴(yán)重、城市交通堵塞狀況加劇等問題,尤其是汽車尾氣排放導(dǎo)致的城市空氣污染,直接影響了居民健康,成為了嚴(yán)重的社會(huì)問題。近十年來,我國(guó)政府認(rèn)識(shí)到問題的嚴(yán)重性,借鑒發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家通過政策經(jīng)濟(jì)手段緩解這些問題的經(jīng)驗(yàn),通過一系列法律法規(guī)、技術(shù)規(guī)和稅收財(cái)政政策制定等手段,促進(jìn)汽車節(jié)能減排技術(shù)的發(fā)展,并引導(dǎo)消費(fèi)者選擇和市場(chǎng)朝著節(jié)能減排的目標(biāo)發(fā)展。 對(duì)于汽車市場(chǎng)的研究,本文選擇了消費(fèi)者購(gòu)車選擇行為的視角。國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)于消費(fèi)者行為的研究有著較長(zhǎng)的歷史和大量詳實(shí)的文獻(xiàn),形成一套較為完整的理論研究體系。通過對(duì)理論和應(yīng)用的梳理,最終決定選擇構(gòu)建離散選擇模型的計(jì)量方法進(jìn)行微觀層面消費(fèi)者行為選擇的分析。在離散選擇模型方面,國(guó)外學(xué)者很早已經(jīng)開始運(yùn)用嵌套Logit模型進(jìn)行了消費(fèi)者行為及市場(chǎng)決策方面的研究,尤其在交通運(yùn)輸及汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域以及有較多成果,而國(guó)內(nèi)采用這種方法的研究起步較晚,但最早是將其運(yùn)用于交通運(yùn)輸方面的研究。在這樣的研究背景下,本文構(gòu)建了三層嵌套Logit模型,對(duì)目前的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)政策的實(shí)施效果進(jìn)行分析,并通過調(diào)整政策相關(guān)參數(shù),包括車輛購(gòu)置稅、燃油附加稅等稅率,設(shè)定了一系列政策模擬情景,進(jìn)一步分析政策及其改進(jìn)對(duì)消費(fèi)者購(gòu)車選擇乃至汽車銷售量的影響。 本文最終得出以下結(jié)論和建議：1、車輛購(gòu)置稅改進(jìn)方面,對(duì)于大中型車的增稅或小微型車的減稅政策都能達(dá)到一定效果,而要達(dá)到削減燃油消費(fèi)量的目標(biāo),還需要針對(duì)高油耗車的增稅或低油耗車的減稅政策,并且獎(jiǎng)罰并行的政策會(huì)更加有效；2、目前燃油消費(fèi)稅增加在鼓勵(lì)居民購(gòu)買低油耗車型方面的影響相對(duì)較弱,必須設(shè)定較高的燃油消費(fèi)稅稅率才能達(dá)到較大的燃油消費(fèi)量削減效果,而這一調(diào)整會(huì)對(duì)GDP產(chǎn)生一定的負(fù)面效應(yīng)；3、在促進(jìn)消費(fèi)者選擇低油耗車方面,綠色稅制非常有效,比如補(bǔ)貼小排量低油耗環(huán)保車等。各項(xiàng)政策的調(diào)整互相受到制約,因此政策的調(diào)整實(shí)施之前,需要明確政策目標(biāo),權(quán)衡政策綜合成本。
[Abstract]:Energy and environmental problems have become one of the most important issues in the world in the 21 st century. Automobile industry not only has become one of the important industries that affect the economic development of our country, but also is closely related to it in the aspect of energy and environment. Since China's entry into WTO, the automobile industry has entered an unprecedented stage of rapid development. By 2010, the sales scale of the new car market in China has exceeded the highest level in the history of the United States. As of June 2011, the number of cars in our country has surpassed that of Japan and become the second largest automobile country in the world. Since 2012, the populace rate of automobile in our country has reached 20%, which has entered the era of "automobile society". With the arrival of the automobile society, the automobile not only brings great convenience for people to travel, gradually changes the travel habits of the public, but also brings the rapid growth of energy consumption, and the urban air pollution becomes more and more serious. Urban traffic congestion and other problems, especially the urban air pollution caused by automobile exhaust emissions, directly affect the health of residents and become a serious social problem. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has recognized the seriousness of the problems, learned from the experience of developed countries in alleviating these problems through policy and economic means, and adopted a series of laws and regulations, technical regulations, and tax and fiscal policy formulation, etc. Promote the development of automotive energy saving and emission reduction technology, and guide consumers to choose and market towards the goal of energy saving and emission reduction. For the study of the automobile market, this paper chooses the perspective of consumer car purchase behavior. The study of consumer behavior at home and abroad has a long history and a large number of detailed literature, forming a relatively complete theoretical research system. Through combing the theory and application, it is decided to choose the measurement method of constructing discrete choice model to analyze consumer behavior choice at the micro level. In the aspect of discrete choice model, foreign scholars have used nested Logit model to study consumer behavior and market decision, especially in the field of transportation and automobile industry. However, the research on this method started late in China, but it was first applied to the research of transportation. In this research background, this paper constructs a three-layer nested Logit model, analyzes the effect of the current automobile industry related policies, and adjusts the relevant policy parameters, including vehicle purchase tax, fuel surtax and other tax rates. A series of policy simulation scenarios are set to further analyze the impact of the policy and its improvement on the choice of car purchase and even the sales volume of cars. This paper finally draws the following conclusions and suggestions: in the aspect of improving the vehicle purchase tax, the tax increases for large and medium-sized vehicles or the tax reduction policies for small and medium-sized vehicles can achieve certain effects, and the goal of reducing fuel consumption should be achieved. There is also a need for tax increases for high-fuel efficient vehicles or tax cuts for low-fuel consumption vehicles, and incentives and penalties will be more effective. At present, the impact of fuel consumption tax increases on encouraging residents to buy low-fuel vehicles is relatively weak. A higher fuel consumption tax rate must be set in order to achieve a greater reduction in fuel consumption, and this adjustment will have a certain negative effect on GDP. The green tax system is very effective in promoting consumers to choose low fuel consumption cars. For example, subsidies small emission low fuel consumption environmental protection cars and so on. The adjustment of each policy is restricted to each other, so it is necessary to define the policy objective and weigh the policy comprehensive cost before the policy adjustment is carried out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.471;F713.55;F224
本文編號(hào)：2169878
[Abstract]:Energy and environmental problems have become one of the most important issues in the world in the 21 st century. Automobile industry not only has become one of the important industries that affect the economic development of our country, but also is closely related to it in the aspect of energy and environment. Since China's entry into WTO, the automobile industry has entered an unprecedented stage of rapid development. By 2010, the sales scale of the new car market in China has exceeded the highest level in the history of the United States. As of June 2011, the number of cars in our country has surpassed that of Japan and become the second largest automobile country in the world. Since 2012, the populace rate of automobile in our country has reached 20%, which has entered the era of "automobile society". With the arrival of the automobile society, the automobile not only brings great convenience for people to travel, gradually changes the travel habits of the public, but also brings the rapid growth of energy consumption, and the urban air pollution becomes more and more serious. Urban traffic congestion and other problems, especially the urban air pollution caused by automobile exhaust emissions, directly affect the health of residents and become a serious social problem. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has recognized the seriousness of the problems, learned from the experience of developed countries in alleviating these problems through policy and economic means, and adopted a series of laws and regulations, technical regulations, and tax and fiscal policy formulation, etc. Promote the development of automotive energy saving and emission reduction technology, and guide consumers to choose and market towards the goal of energy saving and emission reduction. For the study of the automobile market, this paper chooses the perspective of consumer car purchase behavior. The study of consumer behavior at home and abroad has a long history and a large number of detailed literature, forming a relatively complete theoretical research system. Through combing the theory and application, it is decided to choose the measurement method of constructing discrete choice model to analyze consumer behavior choice at the micro level. In the aspect of discrete choice model, foreign scholars have used nested Logit model to study consumer behavior and market decision, especially in the field of transportation and automobile industry. However, the research on this method started late in China, but it was first applied to the research of transportation. In this research background, this paper constructs a three-layer nested Logit model, analyzes the effect of the current automobile industry related policies, and adjusts the relevant policy parameters, including vehicle purchase tax, fuel surtax and other tax rates. A series of policy simulation scenarios are set to further analyze the impact of the policy and its improvement on the choice of car purchase and even the sales volume of cars. This paper finally draws the following conclusions and suggestions: in the aspect of improving the vehicle purchase tax, the tax increases for large and medium-sized vehicles or the tax reduction policies for small and medium-sized vehicles can achieve certain effects, and the goal of reducing fuel consumption should be achieved. There is also a need for tax increases for high-fuel efficient vehicles or tax cuts for low-fuel consumption vehicles, and incentives and penalties will be more effective. At present, the impact of fuel consumption tax increases on encouraging residents to buy low-fuel vehicles is relatively weak. A higher fuel consumption tax rate must be set in order to achieve a greater reduction in fuel consumption, and this adjustment will have a certain negative effect on GDP. The green tax system is very effective in promoting consumers to choose low fuel consumption cars. For example, subsidies small emission low fuel consumption environmental protection cars and so on. The adjustment of each policy is restricted to each other, so it is necessary to define the policy objective and weigh the policy comprehensive cost before the policy adjustment is carried out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.471;F713.55;F224
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