【摘要】：隨著國內(nèi)油田開發(fā)的不斷深入，許多油田區(qū)塊進入開發(fā)的中后期，含水率和開采難度不斷上升，為維持產(chǎn)量水平需要投入巨額成本來彌補自然遞減，油氣操作成本不斷攀升。為控制油氣操作成本，必須對其進行合理有效的預(yù)測。 目前區(qū)塊操作成本預(yù)測的主要做法是參照歷史水平并根據(jù)本年的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營、投資計劃來進行預(yù)測，這種做法缺乏可靠性和準(zhǔn)確性。結(jié)合油田區(qū)塊操作成本變動特點，尋找適合實際情況并且預(yù)測精度較高的油田區(qū)塊操作成本預(yù)測方法，，對于深化區(qū)塊成本預(yù)算管理、促進區(qū)塊操作成本的控制和經(jīng)濟效益的提高具有重大意義。 基于以上背景，對油田區(qū)塊操作成本預(yù)測方法進行探討。首先對成本預(yù)測方法進行了簡單介紹，然后按照生產(chǎn)流程將區(qū)塊操作成本進行重新劃分，在此基礎(chǔ)上進行區(qū)塊操作成本性態(tài)分析，將其區(qū)分為變動部分和固定部分，并得到油田區(qū)塊操作成本預(yù)測的目標(biāo)是變動部分即噸油操作成本的預(yù)測。繼而以東部油田G區(qū)塊為例，分析了區(qū)塊操作成本歷史數(shù)據(jù)特點與未來變動趨勢，根據(jù)不同的應(yīng)用角度，從諸多成本預(yù)測方法中選擇了組合時間序列預(yù)測法和VAR預(yù)測法，對油田區(qū)塊油氣操作成本中的噸油操作成本部分進行了預(yù)測。最后，對兩種預(yù)測方法進行了對比分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)組合時間序列預(yù)測法具有靈活簡便的特點，VAR預(yù)測法具有預(yù)測精度高的優(yōu)勢。在具體實踐應(yīng)用時需要權(quán)衡各種因素，根據(jù)不同情況選擇適當(dāng)方法進行預(yù)測和分析。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of domestic oilfield development, many oil field blocks enter the middle and late stage of development, the water cut and the difficulty of exploitation are rising constantly. In order to maintain the production level, it is necessary to invest a huge amount of cost to make up for the natural decline, and the operating cost of oil and gas is constantly rising. In order to control the operating cost of oil and gas, reasonable and effective prediction must be made. At present, the main method of block operation cost prediction is to forecast according to the historical level and according to the production and investment plan of this year. This method lacks reliability and accuracy. According to the characteristics of operation cost change in oil field block, this paper looks for a prediction method of oil field block operation cost, which is suitable for the actual situation and has high prediction precision, which is helpful to deepen the budget management of block cost. It is of great significance to promote the control of operation cost and the improvement of economic benefits. Based on the above background, the prediction method of operation cost of oilfield block is discussed. In this paper, the cost forecasting method is introduced briefly, and then the block operation cost is redivided according to the production process. On this basis, the operation cost behavior of the block is analyzed and divided into the variable part and the fixed part. The target of operation cost prediction of oilfield block is the forecast of operating cost of ton oil. Then taking the G block of the eastern oil field as an example, the characteristics of the historical data and the future trend of operation cost of the block are analyzed. According to the different application angles, the combined time series forecasting method and the VAR forecasting method are selected from many cost forecasting methods. The operation cost of ton oil in oil field block is predicted. Finally, by comparing and analyzing the two prediction methods, it is found that the combined time series prediction method is flexible and simple, and VAR prediction method has the advantage of high prediction accuracy. In practical application, it is necessary to weigh various factors and choose appropriate methods for prediction and analysis according to different situations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國石油大學(xué)（華東）
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.22;F406.72

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