【摘要】：電力供應(yīng)作為社會(huì)公共基礎(chǔ)行業(yè)，與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與人民生活息息相關(guān)，變電站工程的項(xiàng)目建設(shè)不僅經(jīng)濟(jì)效益顯著，而且具有重大的社會(huì)效益。但是，變電站工程項(xiàng)目涉及的因素比較多（規(guī)劃、設(shè)計(jì)、投資額、工期、技術(shù)、施工、監(jiān)理、環(huán)保等制約因素），使得變電站工程施工建設(shè)的全過程受到許許多多復(fù)雜影響因素的制約，無論是其經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，還是其社會(huì)效益，都充滿了不確定性，而所有這些同時(shí)又受到社會(huì)、政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、自然環(huán)境等等客觀條件的影響與制約，具有巨大的隨機(jī)性和不可預(yù)見性，由此造成了變電站工程項(xiàng)目建設(shè)過程中存在著較大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。基于此，對(duì)變電站工程進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析評(píng)價(jià)研究具有重要的理論意義和必要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。一方面，通過對(duì)變電站工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分析，，有助于我們加深對(duì)其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的理解，充分認(rèn)識(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)于變電站工程的影響程度，為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的化解或分散打好基礎(chǔ)；另一方面，通過實(shí)際資料對(duì)變電站工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行科學(xué)評(píng)價(jià)，有助于我們對(duì)其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行量化，幫助我們從數(shù)量角度來了解變電站工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的程度，為今后長期預(yù)防措施和避免風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失通過科學(xué)的依據(jù)。 變電站工程從規(guī)劃開工建設(shè)，到項(xiàng)目竣工交付使用都充滿了不確定性，工程項(xiàng)目建設(shè)的不同施工作業(yè)階段也同時(shí)存在著各種各樣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。此外，不同的變電站工程，其建設(shè)目標(biāo)各不相同，有的要求工期最短，有的追求利潤最大，有的則要使成本費(fèi)用最小化，等等，因此，如何從整體角度對(duì)變電站工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，把握變電站工程總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平，就成為擺在我們現(xiàn)實(shí)面前的復(fù)雜問題。 基于此，本文立足工作單位實(shí)踐，以東陽變電站工程為樣本，對(duì)變電站工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素進(jìn)行分析，采用多層模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，并對(duì)變電站工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)總體水平進(jìn)行科學(xué)評(píng)價(jià)，針對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施，以期對(duì)變電站工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行管控提供理論指導(dǎo)，為同類變電站工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的總體把握與應(yīng)對(duì)提供參考及借鑒。
[Abstract]:As a social and public basic industry, electricity supply is closely related to the social and economic development and people's life. The project construction of the substation project not only has significant economic benefits, but also has great social benefits. However, there are many factors involved in the substation project (planning, design, investment, time, technology, construction, supervision, environmental protection and so on. " The whole process of construction construction of substation is restricted by many complex factors, whether its economic benefit or its social benefit is full of uncertainty, and all these are influenced and restricted by the objective conditions such as social, political, economic, natural environment and so on. It has great randomness. There is a great risk in the construction of substation project. Based on this, it is of great theoretical significance and necessary practical significance to study and evaluate the risk and risk of substation engineering. On the one hand, through the analysis of the risk of substation engineering, it is helpful for us to deepen the risk of the substation engineering. Understanding, fully understanding the impact of risk on Substation Engineering, and making a good foundation for the solution or dispersion of risk; on the other hand, the scientific evaluation of the risk of substation engineering through actual data helps us to quantify the risk and help us to understand the degree of the risk of the substation engineering from the quantity angle to the future. Long term preventive measures and avoiding risk loss are based on scientific evidence.
The construction of the substation project is full of uncertainty from the construction of the plan to the completion and delivery of the project, and there are various risks in the different construction stages of the project construction. In addition, the construction objectives of different substation projects are different. The cost and cost are minimized, and so on. Therefore, how to evaluate the risk of the substation engineering from the whole point of view and grasp the overall risk level of the substation engineering will become a complicated problem in front of our reality.
Based on this, this paper, based on the practice of the work unit, takes the Dongyang substation project as the sample, analyzes the risk factors of the substation engineering, uses the multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish the risk evaluation index system, and makes a scientific evaluation on the overall level of the substation engineering risk, and puts forward the corresponding risk coping measures aiming at the evaluation results. In order to provide theoretical guidance for the risk management and control of substation engineering, and provide reference for the overall grasp and response of similar substation engineering risks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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