發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-31 07:42

【摘要】：進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來(lái),隨著全球能源危機(jī)的不斷加深,石油資源的日趨枯竭以及大氣污染、全球氣溫上升的危害加劇,各國(guó)政府都普遍意識(shí)到大力推進(jìn)交通發(fā)展模式轉(zhuǎn)變,積極發(fā)展以電動(dòng)汽車為代表的新能源汽車,將會(huì)有效緩解能源危機(jī),促進(jìn)人與自然和諧發(fā)展。 本文首先分析了電動(dòng)汽車在國(guó)內(nèi)外的發(fā)展情況、目前世界各國(guó)對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的推廣情況,研究了純電動(dòng)、燃料電池、混合動(dòng)力和插入式混合動(dòng)力四種電動(dòng)汽車的特點(diǎn)和各種汽車發(fā)展模式。隨后對(duì)廣州近年來(lái)交通發(fā)展?fàn)顩r、能耗情況和環(huán)境排放情況進(jìn)行了研究,廣州作為中國(guó)第三大城市,交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)發(fā)達(dá),公路交通每年都在增長(zhǎng),交通能源需求和環(huán)境排放壓力逐漸增大,對(duì)新能源汽車的需求迫切。 本文在此背景下,通過(guò)模型對(duì)比,建立了基于自下而上方法選擇LEAP模型和情景分析法對(duì)廣州電動(dòng)汽車發(fā)展對(duì)能源和環(huán)境的影響進(jìn)行研究。以2010年為基準(zhǔn)年,建立了廣州(2010-2030)未來(lái)電動(dòng)車-能源-環(huán)境模型,根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展和政策展望設(shè)定了基準(zhǔn)情景、政策情景和低碳情景。再通過(guò)灰色系統(tǒng)預(yù)測(cè)等方法預(yù)測(cè)廣州人口、GDP、城市交通周轉(zhuǎn)量和汽車發(fā)展數(shù)量,計(jì)算能源強(qiáng)度和排放強(qiáng)度等模型參數(shù)。將交通工具劃分為公交車、出租車、集團(tuán)用車和小汽車四個(gè)部門(mén),燃料類型主要考慮柴油、汽油、天然氣、電力,汽車污染物主要考慮二氧化碳、一氧化碳、氮氧化合物和PM10。并利用LEAP模型計(jì)算和分析廣州2010年-2030年不同情景下的能源需求與環(huán)境排放。模型結(jié)果表明,相對(duì)于基礎(chǔ)情景,所設(shè)計(jì)的各個(gè)政策發(fā)展情景對(duì)能源需求和環(huán)境排放均有不同程度的降低,低碳情景是綜合了多種政策情景的優(yōu)化模型,在各種污染物的排放方面都有很好地降低效果。最后,本文在上述研究基礎(chǔ)上,從節(jié)能減排的角度對(duì)廣州電動(dòng)汽車發(fā)展進(jìn)行思考,希望能為廣州的電動(dòng)汽車發(fā)展提供一定的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the deepening of the global energy crisis, the depletion of petroleum resources and air pollution, and the increasing harm of global temperature, governments all over the world are generally aware of vigorously promoting the transformation of traffic development model. The positive development of new energy vehicles, represented by electric vehicles, will effectively alleviate the energy crisis and promote the harmonious development of man and nature. This paper first analyzes the development of electric vehicles at home and abroad, the current countries in the world on the promotion of electric vehicles, the study of pure electric, fuel cells, Hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle features and a variety of vehicle development patterns. Subsequently, the traffic development, energy consumption and environmental emissions in Guangzhou in recent years were studied. Guangzhou, as the third largest city in China, has developed transportation and road traffic is increasing every year. Traffic energy demand and environmental emission pressure gradually increase, the demand for new energy vehicles is urgent. In this context, based on the bottom-up method of selecting LEAP model and scenario analysis method, this paper studies the impact of the development of Guangzhou electric vehicle on energy and environment through model comparison. Taking 2010 as the base year, Guangzhou (2010-2030) future electric vehicle-energy-environment model was established, and the benchmark scenario, policy scenario and low carbon scenario were set up according to the economic and social development and policy outlook. Then the GDPs of Guangzhou population, the amount of urban traffic turnover and the number of cars are predicted by grey system prediction, and the model parameters such as energy intensity and emission intensity are calculated. The main fuel types are diesel, gasoline, natural gas, electricity, automobile pollutants, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and PM10. LEAP model is used to calculate and analyze the energy demand and environmental emissions in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2030. The results show that, compared with the basic scenario, each policy development scenario designed has different degrees of reduction in energy demand and environmental emissions, and the low-carbon scenario is an optimized model that integrates many policy scenarios. It has a good effect in reducing the discharge of all kinds of pollutants. Finally, based on the above research, this paper thinks about the development of Guangzhou electric vehicle from the perspective of energy saving and emission reduction, hoping to provide some reference value for the development of Guangzhou electric vehicle.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F205;F426.471;F424.1

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本文編號(hào)：2154897