【摘要】：為了適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，我國的工程項目投資決策方法也在不斷的進行深入研究，通過分析不同投資決策方法，取其精華，綜合利用其有效的部分，形成新的、科學(xué)的、多元化的工程項目投資決策方法。雖然國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對工程項目投資決策方法已經(jīng)取得了許多成果，但就我國目前狀況來看，工程項目投資決策模型研究還是比較落后的。因此，在借鑒和吸收前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，綜合運用灰色系統(tǒng)理論中的決策模型，采用定性分析方法與定量分析方法相結(jié)合、理論分析與實證分析相結(jié)合的方法，結(jié)合煤礦項目自身的特殊屬性，對煤礦項目的投資決策進行研究。而科學(xué)的煤礦項目投資決策的作出，不僅要求投資者對該項目的信息有足夠了解，更要采用科學(xué)、有效的方法對投資項目的待選方案的信息進行處理，并從眾多待選方案中選擇出其中的最優(yōu)方案。而恰到好處的煤礦項目投資決策可以有效、合理的控制投資規(guī)模，避免重復(fù)建設(shè)，恰當(dāng)、充分的利用有限資源，持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定的推動國民經(jīng)濟健康發(fā)展。由此可見，對煤礦項目投資決策模型的研究，可以有效的指導(dǎo)煤礦項目投資決策者作出合理的煤礦項目投資決策，對投資方最大限度的獲取收益具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。在煤礦項目的具體研究過程中，首先，對國內(nèi)外工程項目投資決策的相關(guān)文獻進行綜述，對工程項目投資決策方法進行了比較分析，并對煤礦項目投資決策方法進行了選擇；其次，引入灰色系統(tǒng)理論，對灰色系統(tǒng)理論中的灰色聚類決策模型與灰色關(guān)聯(lián)決策模型進行了論述，結(jié)合煤礦項目的特殊性，建立適合于煤礦項目的投資決策模型——灰色聚類關(guān)聯(lián)決策模型；再次，通過專家打分的方法確定煤礦項目的投資決策所需要的決策指標(biāo)，建立煤礦項目投資決策指標(biāo)體系，并運用所建立的灰色聚類關(guān)聯(lián)決策模型對煤礦項目投資決策進行實證研究，，從5個待兼并的煤礦項目中確定最優(yōu)方案。最后，通過有效性檢驗得出在煤礦項目中運用灰色聚類關(guān)聯(lián)決策模型是有效可行的。
[Abstract]:In order to adapt to the economic development, the investment decision-making methods of engineering projects in our country are also being studied in depth. Through analyzing different investment decision-making methods, taking the essence of them and synthetically utilizing their effective parts, we can form new and scientific ones. Diversified investment decision methods for engineering projects. Although scholars at home and abroad have made a lot of achievements in the investment decision methods of engineering projects, the research on investment decision models of engineering projects is still relatively backward in view of the present situation in our country. Therefore, on the basis of drawing lessons from and absorbing the previous research results, the decision model of grey system theory is used synthetically, the qualitative analysis method is combined with the quantitative analysis method, and the theoretical analysis method and the empirical analysis method are combined. Combined with the special attribute of coal mine project, the investment decision of coal mine project is studied. The decision making of scientific coal mine project investment not only requires investors to have sufficient understanding of the information of the project, but also uses scientific and effective methods to deal with the information of the investment project to be selected. The optimal scheme is selected from many alternatives. The appropriate investment decision of coal mine project can effectively, reasonably control the investment scale, avoid repeated construction, make proper and full use of limited resources, continuously and steadily promote the healthy development of the national economy. It can be seen that the study of the decision model of coal mine project investment can effectively guide the decision makers of coal mine project investment to make reasonable decision making of coal mine project investment, and it has important theoretical and practical significance for the investors to obtain the maximum income. In the concrete research process of coal mine project, firstly, the paper summarizes the relevant documents of investment decision of engineering project at home and abroad, compares and analyzes the investment decision method of engineering project, and selects the investment decision method of coal mine project. Secondly, this paper introduces the grey system theory, discusses the grey cluster decision model and the grey correlation decision model in the grey system theory, and combines the particularity of the coal mine project. Set up the investment decision model suitable for coal mine project-grey cluster association decision model; thirdly, through the method of expert scoring to determine the decision index needed for the investment decision of coal mine project, establish the investment decision index system of coal mine project. An empirical study on investment decision of coal mine projects is carried out by using the established grey cluster association decision model, and the optimal scheme is determined from five coal mine projects to be merged. Finally, the validity test shows that it is effective and feasible to use the grey cluster association decision model in the coal mine project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.21;F224

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