本文選題：企業(yè)價值評估 + 自由現(xiàn)金流量　； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于目前我國企業(yè)之間的并購重組、股權(quán)交易等活動日趨頻繁，對企業(yè)價值進行合理評估，不僅是企業(yè)投資者評價經(jīng)營者績效，對其進行合理激勵的依據(jù)，同時也是企業(yè)上市、并購和融資的前提。我國中小企業(yè)處于證券市場之外，缺乏市場定價，并且由于獲取信息的數(shù)量、質(zhì)量、渠道等存在著一定的差異，使得這類企業(yè)的價值評估方法在一定程度上有別于其他一些上市公司。近年來，以涼茶為主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)品的飲料行業(yè)異軍突起，其資本運作也日漸活躍，產(chǎn)生了對資產(chǎn)評估業(yè)務(wù)的極大需求。 自由現(xiàn)金流量模型是基于公司過往的比率，結(jié)合行業(yè)的發(fā)展大環(huán)境以及企業(yè)自身情況來預(yù)測該公司未來的經(jīng)營情況，從而預(yù)測未來的現(xiàn)金流。由于飲料行業(yè)的中小企業(yè)規(guī)模小，所處的細分市場明確，只要產(chǎn)能足夠大就能較快適應(yīng)市場需求，發(fā)展速度呈高位增長，這樣在評估中，，一些小的偏差并沒有在本質(zhì)上改變一個企業(yè)的價值，適合采用自由現(xiàn)金流量模型對其進行企業(yè)價值評估。本文試圖將該模型應(yīng)用于飲料行業(yè)的一家民營企業(yè)濟草堂公司的企業(yè)價值評估中，為飲料行業(yè)的非上市中小企業(yè)價值評估提供參考。本文結(jié)合飲料行業(yè)的發(fā)展背景和產(chǎn)品特點，通過對濟草堂公司進行SWOT分析、財務(wù)分析和風(fēng)險分析，全面了解其發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、核心競爭力以及財務(wù)狀況，并對其是否適用于自由現(xiàn)金流量法進行可行性分析。濟草堂各類財務(wù)比率比較穩(wěn)定并擁有正的現(xiàn)金流，其所在行業(yè)發(fā)展前景是可預(yù)期的，即可對其未來現(xiàn)金流量進行預(yù)測。本文采用自由現(xiàn)金流模型的兩階段法對濟草堂公司進行企業(yè)價值評估，通過參數(shù)選擇、數(shù)據(jù)篩選、計算過程、預(yù)測判斷等整體流程，確定自由現(xiàn)金流量和折現(xiàn)率，從而得到合理的企業(yè)估價。最后，結(jié)論部分闡明了企業(yè)價值評估在為企業(yè)決策和理性投資提供指導(dǎo)方面的重要性。同時也從增加企業(yè)內(nèi)在價值的角度，在經(jīng)營管理者管理資產(chǎn)、控制成本費用方面提出建議。
[Abstract]:At present, M & A and stock exchange among enterprises in our country are becoming more and more frequent. To evaluate the enterprise value reasonably is not only the basis for enterprise investors to evaluate the performance of managers, but also the basis for reasonable incentives for them, and it is also the basis for the listing of enterprises. The premise of M & A and financing. Small and medium-sized enterprises in our country are outside the stock market and lack of market pricing, and because of the quantity, quality and channels of obtaining information, there are some differences. This kind of enterprise value evaluation method is different from some other listed companies to some extent. In recent years, the beverage industry with herbal tea as the dominant product has emerged suddenly, and its capital operation has become more and more active, resulting in a great demand for assets evaluation business. Free cash flow model is based on the company's past ratio, combined with the industry development environment and the enterprise's own situation to predict the company's future operating situation, thus predicting the future cash flow. Because of the small size of small and medium-sized enterprises in the beverage industry, they are in a clear market segment. As long as the production capacity is large enough, they will be able to adapt to the needs of the market and develop at a high rate of growth. Some small deviations do not fundamentally change the value of an enterprise, so it is suitable to use the free cash flow model to evaluate the enterprise value. This paper attempts to apply the model to the evaluation of the enterprise value of a private enterprise in the beverage industry, which provides a reference for the evaluation of the value of the non-listed small and medium-sized enterprises in the beverage industry. Based on the development background and product characteristics of beverage industry, this paper makes SWOT analysis, financial analysis and risk analysis to Jicaotang Company, so as to understand its development status, core competitiveness and financial situation. The feasibility of free cash flow method is analyzed. All kinds of financial ratios of Jichaotang are stable and have positive cash flow, and its industry development prospect is predictable, which can predict its future cash flow. This paper adopts the two-stage method of free cash flow model to evaluate the enterprise value of Jicaotang Company. Through the whole process of parameter selection, data screening, calculation process, prediction and judgment, the free cash flow and discount rate are determined. Thus obtains the reasonable enterprise appraisal. Finally, the conclusion illustrates the importance of enterprise value evaluation in providing guidance for enterprise decision-making and rational investment. At the same time, from the angle of increasing the intrinsic value of the enterprise, the paper puts forward some suggestions on managing assets and controlling cost and expense.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F426.82

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