本文選題：生物質(zhì)發(fā)電 + 效益分析　； 參考：《杭州電子科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，能源與環(huán)境問題成為世界各國需要面臨的難題。據(jù)《世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)2012》預(yù)測世界上三大主要的化石能源煤、石油、天然氣將分別于112年、54年、63年以后消耗殆盡。不僅如此傳統(tǒng)石化能源分布在少數(shù)幾個(gè)國家，而那些國家多為戰(zhàn)亂地區(qū)，因此石化能源的價(jià)格在不斷上升。而全球氣候變暖，溫室效應(yīng)，罕見雪災(zāi)，水災(zāi)，霧霾天氣在這些年發(fā)生的頻率也不斷上升。發(fā)展可再生能源，可以緩解能源和環(huán)境壓力，，可再生能源將逐漸替代傳統(tǒng)能源，生物質(zhì)能是可再生能源發(fā)展的重要領(lǐng)域。 2006年，我國第一座生物質(zhì)發(fā)電廠在單縣投入運(yùn)行，到現(xiàn)在近6年。我國生物質(zhì)發(fā)電還不夠成熟，其商業(yè)化過程中還面臨很多問題。本文研究圍繞著生物質(zhì)發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的商業(yè)化以及我國應(yīng)采取的政策兩個(gè)方面展開。在商業(yè)化研究方面本文做了以下工作：（1）根據(jù)我國生物質(zhì)資源的分布以及數(shù)量，提出適合我國的生物質(zhì)發(fā)電模式；（2）根據(jù)電監(jiān)會(huì)等公布的歷年電力數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用灰色預(yù)測模型對我國電力市場的需求，未來上網(wǎng)電價(jià)，裝機(jī)規(guī)模進(jìn)行了預(yù)測；（3）在合理選擇發(fā)電模式的基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)用蒙特卡羅模擬技術(shù)對30MW的秸稈生物質(zhì)發(fā)電廠的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益進(jìn)行了分析；（4）分析了燃料成本和電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼對生物質(zhì)發(fā)電項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的影響。在政策研究方面本文做了以下工作：（1）在大量翻閱國外網(wǎng)站的基礎(chǔ)上，找出生物質(zhì)發(fā)電開展較為先進(jìn)的歐美國家，分析他們的生物質(zhì)發(fā)電現(xiàn)狀；（2）文獻(xiàn)調(diào)查歐盟、美國的電力政策，總結(jié)其電力政策，并與我國的電力政策進(jìn)行比較；（3）在商業(yè)化研究和政策比較后，分析了政府在商業(yè)化過程中扮演的作用，以及政府財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼政策、技術(shù)支持政策和規(guī)劃與管理政策對生物質(zhì)發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的支持作用，在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了適合我國的生物質(zhì)發(fā)電政策。 本文在對商業(yè)化和政策研究得出了以下結(jié)論。商業(yè)化研究的結(jié)論：（1）在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下，我國生物質(zhì)發(fā)電項(xiàng)目具有合理的盈利空間，贏利概率在0.9左右；（2）短期內(nèi)上網(wǎng)電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼仍將持續(xù)，未來可逐步下調(diào)政府的上網(wǎng)電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼，預(yù)計(jì)到2025年實(shí)現(xiàn)商業(yè)化發(fā)展；（3）我國目前的電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼力度是充分的，略有下調(diào)空間，可適當(dāng)下調(diào)10元/千千瓦時(shí)；（4）秸稈成本的控制對生物質(zhì)發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的效益影響很大，秸稈成本應(yīng)控制在360元/噸以下。政策支持研究結(jié)論：（1）在技術(shù)上，需要加強(qiáng)在鍋爐技術(shù)上的研發(fā)，逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)進(jìn)口替代；（2）在規(guī)劃和管理上，加強(qiáng)生物質(zhì)電廠的布局，改變生物質(zhì)電廠過度密集的現(xiàn)狀；(3）在財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼上，加大對投資補(bǔ)貼的力度，可以將部分電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼轉(zhuǎn)移到投資補(bǔ)貼上。
[Abstract]:With the development of the world economy, energy and environment problems have become a difficult problem all over the world. According to "World Energy Statistics 2012", it is predicted that the three major fossil energy coal, oil and natural gas will be exhausted in 112 years, 54 years and 63 years later respectively. Not only that, but traditional fossil energy is distributed in a few countries, most of which are war zones, so the price of fossil energy is rising. Global warming, Greenhouse Effect, rare snowstorms, floods and haze weather have also been on the rise in recent years. The development of renewable energy can relieve the pressure of energy and environment, renewable energy will gradually replace traditional energy, biomass energy is an important field of renewable energy development. In 2006, the first biomass power plant in China was put into operation in single county. Biomass power generation in China is not mature enough, and it still faces many problems in the process of commercialization. This paper focuses on the commercialization of biomass power generation projects and the policies to be adopted in China. In commercial research, this paper has done the following work: (1) according to the distribution and quantity of biomass resources in China, a biomass power generation model suitable for China is proposed. The grey forecasting model is used to forecast the demand of our country's electricity market, the electricity price and the installed scale in the future) on the basis of the reasonable selection of generation mode, Monte-Carlo simulation technology is used to analyze the economic benefit of straw biomass power plant in 30MW. (4) the influence of fuel cost and electricity price subsidy on the economic benefit of biomass power generation project is analyzed. In terms of policy research, this paper has done the following work: 1) on the basis of a large number of searches of foreign websites, we have found out the more advanced countries in Europe and the United States with regard to biomass power generation, and analyzed their status quo of biomass power generation.) the European Union and the United States have investigated the power policies of the European Union and the United States. After summing up its power policy and comparing it with the power policy of our country, this paper analyzes the government's role in the process of commercialization and the government's financial subsidy policy after the commercial research and policy comparison. On the basis of technical support policy and planning and management policy, the biomass power generation policy suitable for our country is put forward. This paper draws the following conclusions in the research of commercialization and policy. Conclusion of commercial research: 1) under the current environment, the biomass power generation project in China has reasonable profit space, and the profit probability is about 0.9%) the subsidy for electricity price on the Internet will continue in the short term, and the government subsidy for the electricity price on the Internet can be gradually reduced in the future. It is estimated that commercial development will be realized by 2025) the current power price subsidy in China is sufficient, and the space for a slight reduction can be reduced appropriately by 10 yuan per kilowatt-hour) the cost control of straw has a great impact on the benefit of biomass power generation projects. The cost of straw should be controlled under 360 yuan / ton. Policy support Research conclusion: 1) technically, it is necessary to strengthen the research and development of boiler technology, and gradually realize the import replacement, so as to strengthen the layout of biomass power plants in terms of planning and management. In order to change the over-intensive status quo of biomass power plants and increase the intensity of investment subsidies, some electricity price subsidies can be transferred to investment subsidies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.61

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