分布式能源交易風險評價及保障機制研究
發(fā)布時間:2018-03-08 18:25
本文選題:分布式能源 切入點:交易模式 出處:《華北電力大學》2015年碩士論文 論文類型:學位論文
【摘要】:隨著世界經濟的快速發(fā)展,用電需求一直高速增長,而能源資源短缺、環(huán)境污染和氣候變化問題日益突出。以風能、太陽能和生物燃料為代表的分布式能源能夠實現(xiàn)能源利用的可持續(xù)發(fā)展、緩解環(huán)境壓力、促進經濟發(fā)展等多個目標,成為能源發(fā)展的重要方向。在我國可再生能源等發(fā)展政策的大力扶持下,分布式能源發(fā)展規(guī)模迅速擴大,技術、利益以及體制等阻礙分布式能源發(fā)展的等問題也將逐步消除。隨著分布式能源的大規(guī)模建設,有必要考慮建設分布式能源發(fā)電交易市場,逐步放開市場體制促進分布式能源發(fā)電的發(fā)展。因此,構建分布式能源交易機制,科學合理地分析交易中存在的風險因素,研究分布式能源交易的風險水平,提出支撐分布式能源交易的保障體制等工作亟需開展進一步研究。論文圍繞著分布式能源交易問題,首先,簡要闡述了分布式能源的定義與技術特征,在分析我國分布式能源發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及政策法規(guī)的基礎上,總結我國分布式能源發(fā)展存在的問題,從而提出分布式能源交易開展的必要性與可行性。其次,根據(jù)目前電力市場的交易分類,提出分布式能源交易模式,包括分布式能源的要素分析和市場機制,并提出分布式能源交易市場的實現(xiàn)路徑。然后,識別分布式能源交易出現(xiàn)的風險因素,建立了分布式能源交易風險評價指標體系,并構建了基于AHP-Fuzzy的分布式能源交易風險評價模型。通過實證研究,得出分布式能源交易市場的風險水平為高。最后,針對分布式能源交易存在的風險因素,系統(tǒng)地提出分布式能源交易的保障機制及相關建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the world economy, the demand for electricity has been growing at a high speed, and the shortage of energy resources, environmental pollution and climate change are becoming increasingly prominent. Distributed energy sources, represented by solar energy and biofuels, can achieve sustainable development of energy use, relieve environmental pressure and promote economic development. It has become an important direction of energy development. With the support of China's renewable energy and other development policies, the scale of distributed energy development is expanding rapidly, and the technology, Problems such as interests and systems that hinder the development of distributed energy will be gradually eliminated. With the large-scale construction of distributed energy, it is necessary to consider building a trading market for distributed energy generation. Gradually liberalizing the market system to promote the development of distributed energy generation. Therefore, build the distributed energy trading mechanism, scientifically and reasonably analyze the risk factors in the transaction, study the risk level of the distributed energy transaction, It is necessary to carry out further research on supporting the security system of distributed energy transaction. This paper focuses on the issue of distributed energy trading. Firstly, the definition and technical characteristics of distributed energy are briefly expounded. On the basis of analyzing the present situation and policies and regulations of distributed energy development in China, this paper summarizes the problems existing in the development of distributed energy resources in China, and puts forward the necessity and feasibility of developing distributed energy trading. According to the transaction classification of the current electricity market, this paper puts forward the distributed energy transaction model, including the analysis of the elements and the market mechanism of the distributed energy, and puts forward the implementation path of the distributed energy trading market. This paper identifies the risk factors of distributed energy transaction, establishes a risk evaluation index system of distributed energy transaction, and constructs a risk evaluation model of distributed energy transaction based on AHP-Fuzzy. It is concluded that the risk level of the distributed energy trading market is high. Finally, aiming at the risk factors of the distributed energy transaction, the paper systematically puts forward the safeguard mechanism and related suggestions of the distributed energy transaction.
【學位授予單位】:華北電力大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2015
【分類號】:F426.2
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