本文關(guān)鍵詞： 我國鐵礦石進口量 我國粗鋼產(chǎn)量 鐵礦石進口價格 協(xié)整檢驗 格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗　出處：《中國海洋大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來，我國國民經(jīng)濟快速穩(wěn)健發(fā)展，城鎮(zhèn)化進程不斷加快，鋼鐵作為“工業(yè)糧食”需求量不斷加大，鋼鐵業(yè)作為基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)，支撐了我國經(jīng)濟建設(shè)的同時，對原材料——鐵礦石也產(chǎn)生了巨大的需求。由于我國國內(nèi)鐵礦石品質(zhì)與地理分布問題，國產(chǎn)礦的生產(chǎn)不能有效滿足我國鋼鐵生產(chǎn)的需求，因此鐵礦石需求只能靠進口來滿足。我國是鋼鐵生產(chǎn)大國，也是鐵礦石進口大國，自2003年以來，我國鐵礦石進口就保持著高數(shù)量高價位的態(tài)勢。經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展、基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)的需要使我國對鐵礦石保持著較大的需求，國際鐵礦石貿(mào)易市場上我國鐵礦石需求的不斷增長影響了國際鐵礦石價格，，國際鐵礦石市場價格的上漲在一定程度上受“中國因素”的影響，也就是說，我國鐵礦石進口量的不斷增長，是國際鐵礦石價格維持著穩(wěn)步上升的重要原因之一。鐵礦石價格是生產(chǎn)鋼鐵產(chǎn)品成本中最大的部分，約為總成本的40%，因此，鐵礦石價格的上漲，導(dǎo)致鋼鐵產(chǎn)品成本上升、鋼鐵企業(yè)利潤下降。與此同時我國國內(nèi)的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，表示我國鋼鐵需求的粗鋼產(chǎn)量增長趨勢不甚明顯。同時我國國內(nèi)港口的鐵礦石庫存量持續(xù)維持在一個相對較高的水平。早有學者分析，我國目前鐵礦石存在盲目進口、囤積圖利的情況，這種情況的存在受損的只會是我國鋼鐵企業(yè)及其下游產(chǎn)業(yè)。因此，分析影響我國鐵礦石進口量的相關(guān)因素并判斷目前我國鐵礦石進口量的發(fā)展趨勢是否合理是本文的重要任務(wù)。 本文首先利用計量經(jīng)濟學方法對2007年1月到2012年12月我國鐵礦石進口量、我國粗鋼產(chǎn)量、我國鐵礦石進口價格、國際鐵礦石運價、我國制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理指數(shù)等經(jīng)濟指標的月度數(shù)據(jù)進行因果關(guān)系檢驗以及模型估計。然后根據(jù)回歸結(jié)果分析我國鐵礦石進口量與各相關(guān)經(jīng)濟指標之間的數(shù)量關(guān)系，研究各指標變動對我國鐵礦石進口數(shù)量的影響，并從中觀察目前鐵礦石進口現(xiàn)狀及存在問題，預(yù)測鐵礦石進口數(shù)量的變化發(fā)展及對我國經(jīng)濟造成的影響。最后，根據(jù)目前我國鐵礦石進口貿(mào)易中存在的問題，以及相關(guān)貿(mào)易因素的影響分析，本文提出了對進口鐵礦石貿(mào)易發(fā)展具有實踐性的建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid and steady development of our national economy, the accelerating process of urbanization, the increasing demand for iron and steel as "industrial grain" and the steel industry as the basic industry support the economic construction of our country at the same time. There is also a huge demand for raw materials-iron ore. Due to the problem of iron ore quality and geographical distribution in China, the production of domestic ore cannot effectively meet the demand for iron and steel production in China. Therefore, iron ore demand can only be met by imports. China is a major iron and steel producer and a major importer of iron ore. Since 2003, China's iron ore imports have maintained a high volume of high price trend. Economic development. The need for infrastructure makes our country maintain a large demand for iron ore. The increasing demand for iron ore in the international iron ore trade market has affected the international iron ore prices. The rise in the international iron ore market is to some extent influenced by the "China factor," which means that China's iron ore imports continue to grow. The price of iron ore is the largest part of the cost of iron and steel products, which is about 40% of the total cost. Therefore, the rise in iron ore prices leads to an increase in the cost of iron and steel products. At the same time, domestic statistics show that, The growth trend of crude steel production in China's iron and steel demand is not very obvious. At the same time, the stock of iron ore in our domestic ports continues to be maintained at a relatively high level. Some scholars have long analyzed that there are blind imports of iron ore in China at present. The situation of hoarding profits, the existence of which will only be damaged by China's iron and steel enterprises and their downstream industries. It is an important task of this paper to analyze the related factors that affect the iron ore import quantity of our country and to judge whether the development trend of the iron ore import quantity of our country is reasonable at present. In this paper, we first use econometric method to analyze the import quantity of iron ore, the output of crude steel, the import price of iron ore in China and the international iron ore transport price from January 2007 to December 2012. The monthly data of China's manufacturing purchasing manager index and other economic indicators are tested by causality test and model estimation, and then the quantitative relationship between iron ore imports and relevant economic indicators is analyzed according to the regression results. This paper studies the influence of the change of each index on the iron ore import quantity of our country, and observes the present situation and existing problems of iron ore import, forecasts the change and development of the iron ore import quantity and its influence on our country's economy. According to the existing problems in China's iron ore import trade and the analysis of the influence of related trade factors, this paper puts forward some practical suggestions for the development of import iron ore trade.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.1;F752.61

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