發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-20 16:54

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 碳排放 能源消費(fèi) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 能源結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《河北大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前，全球正面臨著經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和氣候危機(jī)的考驗(yàn)，各國(guó)政府正努力轉(zhuǎn)變現(xiàn)有的高能耗、高污染以及高排放的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式。我國(guó)作為最大的發(fā)展中國(guó)家，能源消費(fèi)與碳排放量已達(dá)到世界第二的水平，面對(duì)全球共同的責(zé)任，中國(guó)政府決定從2005年到2020年單位國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值碳排放量下降40%-45%。在這樣的背景下，如何在不影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的條件下協(xié)調(diào)碳排放和能源消費(fèi)成為關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。碳排放、能源消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)三者之間有著復(fù)雜的關(guān)系，經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)需要大量的能源消耗，同時(shí)也導(dǎo)致了二氧化碳的排放。因此，降低能源排放強(qiáng)度是中國(guó)節(jié)能減排政策的重點(diǎn)，這不僅要提高能源的利用效率，更為重要的是要改變以煤炭消費(fèi)為主的能源結(jié)構(gòu)，大力發(fā)展清潔技術(shù)�；诖�，本文在理論和實(shí)證上系統(tǒng)分析北京市碳排放量、能源消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。 本文在運(yùn)用可持續(xù)發(fā)展、能源·經(jīng)濟(jì)·環(huán)境以及庫(kù)茲涅茨倒“U”型假說(shuō)等理論基礎(chǔ)之上，對(duì)北京市碳排放量、能源消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)三者之間關(guān)系進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的研究。首先根據(jù)《2006年IPCC國(guó)家溫室氣體清單指南》所提供方法，采用北京統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒數(shù)據(jù)，計(jì)算出北京市近30年的碳排放量；接著，運(yùn)用協(xié)整模型和誤差修正模型實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了北京市碳排放量、能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的長(zhǎng)期及短期關(guān)系；再者，利用庫(kù)茲涅茨假說(shuō)理論，進(jìn)一步研究能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、碳排放量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系；最后，運(yùn)用LMDI分解方法，對(duì)北京市碳排放增量進(jìn)行分解研究。 通過(guò)以上的分析，本文得到如下的結(jié)論：（1）北京市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是碳排放與能源消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的原因，為了尋求碳減排的措施，，應(yīng)該從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模、能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)及清潔技術(shù)水平入手，努力實(shí)現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的條件下實(shí)現(xiàn)碳減排的目標(biāo)；（2）北京市碳排放和能源消費(fèi)的庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線拐點(diǎn)在2013年到來(lái)，盡管時(shí)間提前于全國(guó)大部分地區(qū)，但碳減排的任務(wù)仍然很重；（3）北京市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源強(qiáng)度對(duì)于碳減排的作用空間已然不大，為了繼續(xù)提高碳減排的力度，調(diào)整能源結(jié)構(gòu)是北京市政府目前的當(dāng)務(wù)之急。
[Abstract]:At present, the world is facing the test of economic crisis and climate crisis, and governments are trying to change the existing economic growth model of high energy consumption, high pollution and high emission. Energy consumption and carbon emissions have reached the second highest in the world. In the face of shared global responsibility, the Chinese government decided to reduce carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product from 2005 to 2020. Against this background, How to coordinate carbon emissions and energy consumption without affecting economic growth has become a key issue. There is a complex relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth, and economic growth requires a large amount of energy consumption. It also leads to carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, reducing energy emission intensity is the focus of China's energy conservation and emission reduction policy, which not only improves the efficiency of energy use, but also changes the energy structure dominated by coal consumption. Based on this, the relationship among carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing is systematically analyzed theoretically and empirically. Based on the theories of sustainable development, energy, economy and environment, and Kuznets' inverted "U" hypothesis, this paper studies the carbon emissions from Beijing. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is systematically studied. Firstly, based on the method provided by the IPCC guidelines for National greenhouse Gas inventories of 2006, the Beijing Statistical Yearbook is used to calculate the carbon emissions of Beijing for nearly 30 years. Cointegration model and error correction model are used to test the long-term and short-term relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing. Furthermore, the Kuznets hypothesis is used to further study energy consumption and economic growth. The relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth. Finally, the LMDI decomposition method is used to analyze the carbon emissions increment in Beijing. Through the above analysis, this paper draws the following conclusion: (1) the economic growth in Beijing is the reason for the increase in carbon emissions and energy consumption. In order to seek measures for reducing carbon emissions, we should look for measures to reduce carbon emissions from the industrial structure, industrial scale, Starting with the energy consumption structure and the level of clean technology, we will strive to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions under the conditions of economic growth) the turning point of the Kuznets curve of carbon emissions and energy consumption in Beijing will arrive on 2013. Although the time is ahead of that in most parts of the country, the task of reducing carbon emissions is still very heavy.) the industrial structure and energy intensity of Beijing have not much room for carbon abatement. In order to continue to increase the intensity of carbon abatement, Adjusting the energy structure is the urgent task of the Beijing Municipal Government at present.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F205;F127;F426.2

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