發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-20 12:51

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 長(zhǎng)三角 能源消費(fèi) 碳排放 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)　出處：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著全球環(huán)境問(wèn)題尤其是氣候問(wèn)題的日益凸顯，各國(guó)學(xué)者逐漸認(rèn)識(shí)到研究能源消費(fèi)、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間關(guān)系的重要性。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不能缺少能源要素的投入，而大量的能源消費(fèi)直接導(dǎo)致了全球碳排放過(guò)量，三者的變化和發(fā)展是相互影響、相互關(guān)聯(lián)的。如何維持三者綜合平穩(wěn)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，在保持經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí)，合理使用能源，減少碳排放量，是迫在眉睫的問(wèn)題。 長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)主要包括上海、江蘇和浙江三個(gè)省份，是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最具代表性的地區(qū)之一，在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、國(guó)內(nèi)外投資環(huán)境、科技創(chuàng)新能力等方面在都處于全國(guó)領(lǐng)先位置。同時(shí)該地區(qū)近二十年的能源消費(fèi)和二氧化碳排放量也占據(jù)了全國(guó)很大的比重，經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展導(dǎo)致環(huán)境問(wèn)題日益加重，而生態(tài)環(huán)境的破壞又會(huì)影響到地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步的發(fā)展。面對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展這一重大課題，深入了解三者之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，對(duì)長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)合理規(guī)劃未來(lái)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和制定切實(shí)有效的政策措施有重要的指導(dǎo)意義。基于這方面的考慮，本文在理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上，重點(diǎn)從實(shí)證的角度分析研究了長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)能源消費(fèi)、碳排放與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。 第一章為本文的緒論部分，闡明了本文的選題目的和意義，介紹了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者在相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的研究成果，提出了本文的研究思路與方法以及創(chuàng)新與不足之處。 第二章首先介紹了能源消費(fèi)、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在的內(nèi)在關(guān)系，其次從三者關(guān)系的階段性特征方面說(shuō)明了相應(yīng)研究的主要內(nèi)容。 第三章為統(tǒng)計(jì)分析部分，運(yùn)用對(duì)比分析的方法，將長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)的能源消費(fèi)、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比研究。結(jié)果說(shuō)明，三者具有大致相同的變化趨勢(shì)，即三者之間存在互相影響的關(guān)系。 第四章為計(jì)量分析部分，利用面板數(shù)據(jù)和向量自回歸的研究方法分析了三者之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明：在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)，長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)的能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、碳排放與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在協(xié)整關(guān)系，且三者之間也存在協(xié)整關(guān)系；在短期內(nèi)，長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)的能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、碳排放與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在雙向的因果關(guān)系。 第五章為庫(kù)茲涅茲曲線存在性研究，基于庫(kù)茲涅茲曲線的理論，實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)存在環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茲曲線和碳排放庫(kù)茲涅茲曲線，并預(yù)測(cè)出曲線拐點(diǎn)分別將在2022和2025年左右出現(xiàn)。 第六章為文章總結(jié)部分，，并提出一些有利于長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly prominent global environmental problems, especially climate issues, scholars from all over the world have come to realize the importance of studying the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. Economic growth can not lack the input of energy elements. And a large amount of energy consumption directly leads to the global carbon emissions excess, the changes and development of the three are mutually affected and interrelated. How to maintain the three integrated and stable sustainable development, while maintaining economic development. Rational use of energy, reducing carbon emissions, is an urgent problem. Yangtze River Delta region mainly includes Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, is one of the most representative areas of economic development in China, in the level of social and economic development, investment environment at home and abroad. The ability of science and technology innovation is in the leading position in the country. Meanwhile, the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of the region have accounted for a large proportion of the country in the past two decades. The rapid development of economy leads to increasingly serious environmental problems, and the destruction of ecological environment will affect the further development of regional economy. Deeply understanding the internal relationship between the three has important guiding significance for rational planning of the future sustainable development strategy and formulation of effective policy measures in the Yangtze River Delta. Based on this consideration. On the basis of theoretical research, this paper analyzes the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region from an empirical point of view. The first chapter is the introduction of this paper, the purpose and significance of this paper, the introduction of domestic and foreign scholars in the relevant fields of research results, the research ideas and methods of this paper as well as innovation and deficiencies. The second chapter first introduces the internal relations among energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, and then explains the main contents of the corresponding research from the phase characteristics of the three relations. The third chapter is the statistical analysis, using the method of comparative analysis, the Yangtze River Delta energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth data are compared. The three have roughly the same trend of change, that is, there is a relationship between the three. Chapter 4th is the econometric analysis part. The dynamic relationship between them is analyzed by panel data and vector autoregressive method. The results show that the energy consumption and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region in the long run. There is a cointegration relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, and there is also a cointegration relationship among the three. In the short term, there is a two-way causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta. Chapter 5th is a study on the existence of Kuznets curve. Based on the theory of Kuznets curve, the paper empirically tests the existence of environmental Kuznets curve and carbon emission Kuznets curve in Yangtze River Delta. It is predicted that the inflection point of the curve will appear around 2022 and 2025, respectively. Chapter 6th is the summary of the article, and puts forward some policy suggestions for realizing sustainable development in the Yangtze River Delta region.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F205;F426.2;F224

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