本文關(guān)鍵詞：海島電力市場(chǎng)模式及其電源投資決策研究　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 海島電力市場(chǎng) 商業(yè)模式 e3-value分析方法 凈現(xiàn)值法 實(shí)物期權(quán)法

【摘要】：遠(yuǎn)離大陸的海島供電問題一直以來未能得到很好的解決,海島電源主要是由柴油機(jī)組成,不僅電能質(zhì)量低,電力設(shè)施安全可靠性不高,電價(jià)也居高難下。由于難以有效解決海島用電問題,海島經(jīng)濟(jì)始終無法實(shí)現(xiàn)快速發(fā)展,而且極大地影響了島上民生問題的改善。在當(dāng)今電力市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程的大環(huán)境下,在海島地區(qū)推行電力市場(chǎng)化改革已然成為一種趨勢(shì)。 本文對(duì)海島地區(qū)的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)和模式進(jìn)行了探討,并研究了在市場(chǎng)模式下的海島電源投資決策問題,主要研究?jī)?nèi)容可概述如下： 首先,對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外海島地區(qū)的電力建設(shè)以及市場(chǎng)推進(jìn)情況進(jìn)行了全面調(diào)研及總結(jié)。對(duì)比總結(jié)了國(guó)內(nèi)外海島電力建設(shè)的不同思路,建議我國(guó)海島市場(chǎng)的建立應(yīng)該參照國(guó)外市場(chǎng)化改革的思路,并結(jié)合我國(guó)海島情況進(jìn)行市場(chǎng)化改革,促進(jìn)海島電力持續(xù)有力發(fā)展。 其次,以商業(yè)模式為市場(chǎng)建立視角,應(yīng)用e3-value方法對(duì)海島的市場(chǎng)成員目標(biāo)及其價(jià)值活動(dòng)進(jìn)行了深入分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上應(yīng)用該方法建立了三種類型海島電力市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)和模式,分別為：垂直一體化模式,引入部分競(jìng)爭(zhēng)模式和寡頭壟斷模式。 最后,研究了三種模式下海島電源投資問題。分析了三種模式下電源投資決策的不同點(diǎn),并分別建立了相應(yīng)的電源投資模型,運(yùn)用凈現(xiàn)值法對(duì)垂直一體化壟斷模式的海島投資決策問題進(jìn)行了分析計(jì)算,研究了政府電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼率以及燃料費(fèi)對(duì)項(xiàng)目?jī)衄F(xiàn)值的影響；應(yīng)用實(shí)物期權(quán)理論建立了初級(jí)市場(chǎng)模式及寡頭壟斷模式的電源投資決策模型,前者深入研究了政府政策以及折舊率對(duì)獨(dú)立發(fā)電商投資決策問題的影響,并進(jìn)行了仿真分析。后者則主要研究了考慮其他發(fā)電商進(jìn)入投資時(shí),發(fā)電商的投資決策將會(huì)相應(yīng)的變化,模型分析表明其會(huì)促進(jìn)發(fā)電商提前進(jìn)行投資。
[Abstract]:The island power supply problem far from the mainland has not been solved well. The island power supply is mainly composed of diesel engine, which is not only low power quality, but also low safety and reliability of power facilities. The electricity price is also very high. Because it is difficult to effectively solve the problem of island electricity consumption, the island economy has never been able to achieve rapid development. Moreover, it has greatly affected the improvement of the livelihood of the people on the island. Under the general environment of the current electricity marketization process, it has become a trend to carry out the market-oriented reform in the island area. This paper discusses the market structure and mode of the island area, and studies the investment decision of the island power supply under the market mode. The main research contents can be summarized as follows: Firstly, the paper makes a comprehensive investigation and summary of the electric power construction and market advancement in the island area at home and abroad, and compares and summarizes the different ideas of the electric power construction at home and abroad. It is suggested that the establishment of the island market in our country should be based on the ideas of foreign market-oriented reform and the marketization reform should be carried out in combination with the situation of the islands in China so as to promote the sustainable development of island electric power. Secondly, from the perspective of business model, the paper analyzes the target of market members and their value activities by using e3-value method. On the basis of this method, three types of island power market structure and model are established: vertical integration model, partial competition mode and oligopoly mode. Finally, the paper studies the island power investment problem under three modes, analyzes the difference of the power investment decision under the three modes, and establishes the corresponding power investment model respectively. The net present value (NPV) method is used to analyze and calculate the island investment decision in the vertical integrated monopoly mode, and the influence of government electricity price subsidy rate and fuel cost on the NPV of the project is studied. Based on the real option theory, the paper establishes the power investment decision model of primary market model and oligopoly mode. The former deeply studies the influence of government policy and depreciation rate on the investment decision of independent power generation company. The latter mainly studies how the decision will change when other generators enter the investment, and the model analysis shows that it will promote the generator to invest ahead of time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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