本文關(guān)鍵詞：省域能源消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用　出處：《廣西師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：隨著人類社會的不斷發(fā)展,資源能源問題已日益成為制約經(jīng)濟(jì)前進(jìn)的絆腳石。低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸成為新時代人類進(jìn)步的又一大挑戰(zhàn)。能源環(huán)境問題己成為全球關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),從2003年《能源白皮書》的問世到2009年聯(lián)合國氣候會議的召開,各國均致力于解決能源環(huán)境問題。我國作為二氧化碳排放量最多的國家,節(jié)能減排任重道遠(yuǎn)。低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)質(zhì)是能源高效利用,清潔能源開發(fā),追求綠色GDP的問題。我國目前正處于城市化和工業(yè)化快速發(fā)展的階段,能源資源的有限性與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所面臨的對其的剛性需求之間的矛盾日益激化。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,能源資源表現(xiàn)出對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的約束,制約了經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展,在保持經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時如何提高能源的利用效率是我們目前需要解決的問題。 我國地緣遼闊,各地資源稟賦不同,資源能源表現(xiàn)出的先天優(yōu)勢將對該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生顯著影響,這種能源資源表現(xiàn)出的集聚現(xiàn)象,不利于提高我國總體的能源強(qiáng)度,資源分布的不均勢必會阻礙區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體發(fā)展。面對區(qū)域間能源資源稟賦的差異,各地區(qū)所表現(xiàn)出的能源對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用各異,一刀切的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長策略不適合全國整體的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,因此如何協(xié)調(diào)區(qū)域能源資源以促進(jìn)全國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展事關(guān)重要。 鑒于此,本文在分析國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,分析對比我國各省域能源資源現(xiàn)狀,以及各省市地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長狀況,分析各省能源消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用。本文擬從省域人均能源消費(fèi)出發(fā),同時借助經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型,研究不同區(qū)域間能源消費(fèi)增長率的閥值,最后結(jié)合實(shí)際人均能源消費(fèi)分析不同地區(qū)能源消費(fèi)對其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用,并試圖解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長背后,集聚的負(fù)外部性。具體地,首先將經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作為因變量,以資本存量、勞動力、能源消費(fèi)三要素生產(chǎn)函數(shù)為基礎(chǔ)對我國30個省域(西藏除外)1990-2011年面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行全面分析,以找尋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長背后各生產(chǎn)要素的影響程度；緊接著將我國30個省域劃分為北方、南方及西部地區(qū)三個區(qū)域,再分別對這三個區(qū)域進(jìn)行面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸,以此來闡釋各生產(chǎn)要素在不同區(qū)域間對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生的作用不同。最后,本文擬通過面板門檻回歸技術(shù),以人均能源消費(fèi)作為門限變量,試圖尋找其閥值,以此全面分析我國30個省市(西藏除外)經(jīng)濟(jì)所處狀態(tài),從而合理分配能源,促進(jìn)區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。通過上述實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),得到如下結(jié)論： 第一,在對我國30個省域整體進(jìn)行面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸發(fā)現(xiàn),將能源消費(fèi)加入到兩部門生產(chǎn)函數(shù)中是合理的。資本存量、勞動力以及能源消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長均表現(xiàn)出顯著的正向拉動作用,但影響程度不同,影響系數(shù)大小依次為能源消費(fèi)、資本存量、勞動力,因此可以看出能源消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用不容忽視。因此將能源消費(fèi)作為生產(chǎn)要素之一加入到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型當(dāng)中具有實(shí)踐性的指導(dǎo)意義。 第二,在將我國30個省域劃分為北方、南方及西部地區(qū)后分別進(jìn)行回歸發(fā)現(xiàn),不同區(qū)域間各生產(chǎn)要素對其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響系數(shù)存在差異。其中能源消費(fèi)影響系數(shù)在三個區(qū)域均表現(xiàn)出顯著的正向作用,在北方地區(qū)超過了1,而在其他兩個區(qū)域均小于1,可見能源消費(fèi)在北方地區(qū)對經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展做出了很大貢獻(xiàn),而相對而言西部地區(qū)要偏小；資本存量影響系數(shù)同樣在三個區(qū)域間均表現(xiàn)出顯著的正向影響系數(shù),但其差別不大,北方相對略高于南方及西部地區(qū)；而勞動力對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響只有在西部地區(qū)表現(xiàn)出顯著的負(fù)向作用,而在北方及南方均不顯著,且系數(shù)均為負(fù),此種現(xiàn)象表明勞動力在我國三個區(qū)域間相對過剩的現(xiàn)狀。 第三,在上述經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型中,對全國30個省域1990-2011年間數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行面板門限回歸發(fā)現(xiàn),以人均能源消費(fèi)為門限變量,存在明顯的門限效應(yīng)且門限值接近真實(shí)值,以能源消費(fèi)為核心變量分析時得出不同省域能源消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長表現(xiàn)的作用不同,具體在低于門限變量時表現(xiàn)為顯著的負(fù)向作用,一旦超過門限值則表現(xiàn)出顯著的正向作用。從分析結(jié)果可以看出在保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的同時,不同省域間生產(chǎn)要素的合理分配必不可少,同時政府在制定節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)與任務(wù)時要針對不同的省域制定不同的任務(wù),這樣更加科學(xué)合理。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of human society, resources and energy issues have become the obstacle that restricts economic progress. Low carbon economy has become a big challenge and a new era of human progress. Energy and environmental problems have become the focus of global attention, held from 2003 "energy white paper > came to the 2009 UN Climate Conference, all countries are committed to to solve the energy and environmental issues. China's carbon dioxide emissions as the most populous country, energy saving and emission reduction work. The essence of low carbon economy is the efficient use of energy, clean energy development, the pursuit of green GDP. China is currently in the rapid development of the City and the stage of industrialization, the contradiction between the rigid demand faced by energy resources the limitation and economic development is increasingly intensified. With the development of economy, energy and resources show the constraints on economic growth, restricted the economic in Step by step, how to improve the efficiency of energy utilization while maintaining economic development is a problem we need to solve at present.
China's geopolitical vast resources around the different energy resources show the advantage of will have a significant impact on the economic development of the region, the agglomeration of energy resources show, is not conducive to improving the energy intensity of China's overall development, the overall resource distribution is not balance will hinder the regional economy. In the face of regional differences energy resources, all regions showed energy had various effects on economic growth, economic growth strategy across the board is not suitable for the country's overall economic development, so how to coordinate the regional energy resources is important to promote the development of the national economy.
In view of this, based on the analysis of the related literature at home and abroad, analysis of the current situation of China's energy resources of all provinces and cities, regional economic growth situation, analysis of energy consumption on the economic role of the provinces. This paper starts from the per capita energy consumption province, at the same time with the economic growth model of energy consumption growth in different regions the rate of the threshold, according to the analysis of energy consumption on the economic growth in different regions of the actual per capita energy consumption, and tries to explain behind economic growth, the negative externality agglomeration. Specifically, the economic growth as the dependent variable, the stock of capital, labor, energy consumption of three elements of the production function based on China 30 provinces (except Tibet) 1990-2011 panel data to conduct a comprehensive analysis, to find the influence degree of economic growth behind the various factors of production; followed by China's 30 provinces plan The north is divided into three regions, the southern and western regions, respectively, of the three areas of the panel data regression, in order to explain the production factors to economic growth in different regions of different functions. Finally, this paper proposed by the panel threshold regression techniques, per capita energy consumption as the threshold variable, trying to find the this threshold, a comprehensive analysis of 30 provinces of China (except Tibet) the state economy, and rational allocation of energy, promoting coordinated regional development. Through the empirical analysis, conclusions are obtained as follows:
First, in our country 30 provinces overall regression panel data, the energy consumption was added to the two sector production function is reasonable. The stock of capital, labor and energy consumption on economic growth showed a significant positive effect, but the impact is different, the size of order influence coefficient of energy consumption, capital the stock of labor, it can be seen that the energy consumption on economic growth can not be ignored. Therefore, the energy consumption as one of the factors of production into the economic growth model with practical guidance.
In second, China's 30 provinces will be divided into North, South and west regions respectively after the regression analysis showed that different regions of each factor of production of the influence coefficient differences in economic growth. The impact of energy consumption coefficient in the three regions showed a significant positive effect, more than 1 in the northern region, and in the other two regions were less than 1, visible energy consumption in the northern area of economic development has made a great contribution, while the western region are smaller; the capital stock also influence coefficient in three regions showed a positive influence coefficient is significant, but the difference was not significant, the north is higher than the South and west area and labor; the impact on economic growth in the western region only showed significant negative effects, while in the north and South were not significant, and the coefficient is negative, this phenomenon shows that the labor force in our country The relative surplus between the three regions.
In third, the economic growth model, the national 30 provinces during 1990-2011 data panel threshold regression found that the per capita energy consumption as the threshold variable, obvious threshold effect and the threshold value is close to the true value to energy consumption as the core variable analysis to different provincial energy consumption on economic growth performance the effect of different, specific below the threshold variables showed significant negative effects, once exceeded the threshold showed a significant positive effect. From the results of the analysis can be seen in ensuring economic growth at the same time, the reasonable distribution of different provincial essential factors of production, at the same time, the government in the formulation of energy-saving emission reduction targets and tasks to develop different tasks in different provinces, it is more scientific and reasonable.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F426.2;F206

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