本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)科學思維觀的企業(yè)重大決策群組ANP方法研究　出處：《昆明理工大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：決策在企業(yè)管理中擔當極其重要的角色,現(xiàn)代企業(yè)面臨復(fù)雜的決策環(huán)境,以運籌學建立起來的線性決策模型借助計算機技術(shù)的確為企業(yè)提供了一些具有輔助性的辦法,然而現(xiàn)行方法并未能真正反映出決策者思維過程的非線性問題,面對現(xiàn)實的復(fù)雜問題與情況,企業(yè)決策風險加大,不確定性增加,如何為企業(yè)提供一套科學有效而全面的決策分析方法,以幫助企業(yè)快速做出客觀、準確的選擇,謀求更長遠的發(fā)展,成為企業(yè)迫切需要解決的主要難題,為此,本文提出了基于復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)科學思維觀下的企業(yè)重大決策方法研究。 圍繞這一主題開展本文內(nèi)容,首先,在搜集復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)理論、決策理論、決策方法等文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,歸納出了復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)科學思維觀的相關(guān)概念,為論文提供了理論基礎(chǔ)與研究思路；其次,將企業(yè)的重大決策問題劃分為兩部分——專家遴選問題與群組決策方法問題,對于第一個專家遴選問題,建立專家?guī)?由企業(yè)的智囊團初選出專家范圍,再利用模糊德爾菲法,解決最終專家遴選時的不確定性問題,以模糊數(shù)的形式計算各個專家的綜合評價分值,進行排序優(yōu)選；對于第二個群組決策問題,應(yīng)充分考慮專家決策時的非線性思維,將實際決策問題分解為具有不同層次的網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu),提出了改進的ANP群組決策方法,首先用專家投票方式對各項指標進行重要性排序,計算權(quán)重值,而后將權(quán)重值代入ANP超矩陣中,將改進后的方法得出的權(quán)重代替了傳統(tǒng)ANP的兩兩比較判斷矩陣,得出基于各準則下方案的優(yōu)劣排序,考慮決策者的偏好編輯公式,得出方案的綜合排序。本文最后,以某天然氣企業(yè)為案例,針對實際決策問題,構(gòu)造ANP網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu),采用改進后的方法對數(shù)據(jù)予以了實例分析,計算出結(jié)果并得出最終優(yōu)選方案,為企業(yè)重大決策提供了分析、判斷的新的思路與方法,具有很強的可操作性。 AHP作為現(xiàn)代多屬性決策問題的綜合評價方法,自提出以來已經(jīng)得到了學術(shù)界的廣泛關(guān)注,應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域涉及經(jīng)濟、管理、軍事、人文等多方面,ANP在AHP的基礎(chǔ)上加入了元素集內(nèi)部與元素集之間的相互影響與反饋關(guān)系,使得該方法更加成熟,在決策科學方法研究領(lǐng)域得到廣泛關(guān)注,但是任何一種決策方法都有它的適用性與限制性,無法解決決策領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)的所有復(fù)雜非線性問題,ANP方法本身也存在固有缺陷有待進一步改進與完善。 通過對現(xiàn)有評價方法的學習與參考提出改進建議,通過實例可以驗證改進后的ANP群組決策方法可以實現(xiàn)復(fù)雜性思維與非線性思維的有機融合,進行方案的優(yōu)選工作并得出結(jié)論,本文所述內(nèi)容也為企業(yè)決策者提供了具有一定參考價值的理論與方法。
[Abstract]:The decision to play an extremely important role in the enterprise management, modern enterprises are facing a complicated decision environment to linear decision model of operational research established by computer technology does provide some complementary way for the enterprise, but the current method of nonlinear problems and can not really reflect the decision maker's thinking process, in the face of complex problems and situation the reality of the enterprise decision-making risk, increased uncertainty, how a set of scientific and effective and comprehensive decision-making method for enterprises, to help enterprises to quickly make an objective and accurate selection, seek more long-term development, has become a major problem, enterprises urgently need to solve this, this paper puts forward the study method for complex decisions the system of enterprise based on the view of scientific thinking.
Around the theme of this dissertation, first of all, in the collection of the complex system theory, decision theory, decision making method on the basis of literature, summed up the related concepts of complex system science thinking, provides a theoretical basis and research method for the paper; secondly, divide the major decision problem of the enterprise into two parts: expert selection the problem with the group decision method, expert selection for the first problem, the establishment of the experts, by the enterprise think-tank experts are selected, then using fuzzy Delphi method, finally solve the expert selection when the uncertainty problem, comprehensive evaluation in the form of fuzzy numbers to calculate each expert's score sorted for second; a group decision problem, should fully consider the nonlinear thinking expert decision of the actual decision problem is decomposed into network structure with different levels, puts forward improved ANP Group decision making method to rank the importance of the indicators of the experts vote, calculate the weight value, then the weight values of ANP super matrix, the weight of the improved method that replaces the traditional ANP 22 comparison judgment matrix, the ordering of the standard schemes based on considering the preference editor the formula, to obtain the comprehensive sorting scheme. Finally, in a natural gas enterprise as the case, according to the actual decision problem, constructs the ANP network, using the improved method to the case analysis of the data, the calculated results and the final optimization scheme, provides an analysis of major policy decisions for the enterprise, new ideas and methods to judge and it has strong operability.
AHP as a modern comprehensive evaluation method of multiple attribute decision making problems, since it has been put forward has received widespread attention in academic circles, is used in the field of economy, management, military, cultural and other aspects, ANP in AHP in the basis of the interaction between the internal elements set and element set and feedback relationship, which makes the method more mature, scientific decision-making method is widely concerned in the research field, but any kind of decision making method has its applicability and limitations, can not solve all the complex nonlinear problems arising from the field of decision, ANP itself has yet to be further improved and perfected the inherent defects.
Through the study and reference to the existing evaluation method put forward the improvement suggestions and examples to validate the improved ANP group decision making method can realize the organic integration of complex thinking and nonlinear thinking, optimize the work plan and concluded that the content in the paper can provide the theory basis and method has a certain reference value for the decision maker.

【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F272.2;F426.22

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