本文關(guān)鍵詞：礦產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目境外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 境外投資 礦產(chǎn)行業(yè) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 礦石價(jià)格 評(píng)價(jià)模型

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)于礦產(chǎn)資源的需求量逐年提高.國(guó)家也高度重視，鼓勵(lì)企業(yè)到境外投資礦產(chǎn)行業(yè)。因此對(duì)于境外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制成為企業(yè)的研究難題。本篇文章在對(duì)礦業(yè)境外市場(chǎng)的認(rèn)識(shí)和分析的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合傳統(tǒng)的理論,闡述了投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的理論和方法,建立礦產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析模型。于此同時(shí)，運(yùn)用歷史數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)上述方法和推論做出合理的驗(yàn)證，，論文對(duì)礦產(chǎn)資源的屬性、價(jià)值和礦產(chǎn)投資環(huán)境、財(cái)務(wù)狀況進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的分析。最后通過(guò)投資項(xiàng)目實(shí)例,結(jié)合一些定性及定量的分析方法比如：層次分析法、蒙特卡洛模擬、模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法等對(duì)礦產(chǎn)境外投資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。通過(guò)對(duì)理論的研究學(xué)習(xí)以及實(shí)踐操作，分析得出結(jié)論：該境外投資項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)在可行性階段接近于較低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。并且對(duì)未來(lái)十年鐵礦石價(jià)格進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，結(jié)果表明未來(lái)十年的鐵礦石均價(jià)為148.78美元，遠(yuǎn)高于財(cái)務(wù)分析預(yù)估價(jià)格100美元，說(shuō)明項(xiàng)目分析的數(shù)據(jù)較為準(zhǔn)確，項(xiàng)目前景比較樂(lè)觀。該篇論文的意義在于在項(xiàng)目可行性分析階段，對(duì)項(xiàng)目技術(shù)、運(yùn)行條件、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、政治等各方面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素做出識(shí)別、分析和評(píng)價(jià)，用科學(xué)、合理的理論方法指導(dǎo)實(shí)際工作，盡可能的降低項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，提高投資決策的水平，為企業(yè)境外投資提供有效的分析方法和客觀準(zhǔn)確的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the demand for mineral resources in the national economy has increased year by year. The state also attaches great importance to encouraging enterprises to invest in mineral industry overseas. Therefore, the control of foreign investment risk has become a research problem for enterprises. Based on the understanding and analysis of mining overseas market, combined with traditional theories, this paper expounds the theory and method of investment risk analysis, and establishes a risk analysis model for mineral investment. At the same time, historical data is used to make reasonable verification of the above methods and inferences. The paper makes a systematic analysis of the attributes, value and mineral investment environment and financial status of mineral resources. Finally, some qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, such as analytic hierarchy process, Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, are applied to verify the risk assessment model of mineral overseas investment projects. Through theoretical research and practical operation, it is concluded that the risk level of overseas investment project is close to lower risk in the feasibility stage. And predict the iron ore price in the next ten years. The result shows that the average price of iron ore in the next ten years will be 148.78 US dollars, which is much higher than that of the financial analysis and the estimated price is 100 dollars, which indicates that the data of the project analysis is more accurate and the prospect of the project is more optimistic. The papers of the significance lies in the phase of project feasibility analysis, project technology, operating conditions, economic, social and political aspects of the risk factors identification, analysis and evaluation, and guide practice with theory of scientific and reasonable method, to reduce the risk of project as far as possible, improve the investment decision-making level, provide the analysis method effective and accurate basis for overseas investment enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.1;F125

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本文編號(hào)：1342686