本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于集對分析的旅游城市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評價——以舟山市為例，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

[1] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>O’Brien <given-names>K,<name>Eriksen <given-names>S,<name>Schjolden <given-names>A,<etal>et al. What’s in a word? Conflicting interpretations of vulnerability in climate change research[R].Oslo: CICERO Working Paper, <year>2004.

[2] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Fussel H <given-names>M.Vulnerability:A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research[J]. Global Environmental Change, <year>2007, <volume>17(2):<fpage>155-<lpage>167.

The term 鈥榲ulnerability鈥 is used in many different ways by various scholarly communities. The resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for misunderstanding in interdisciplinary research on climate change and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. Earlier attempts at reconciling the various conceptualizations of vulnerability were, at best, partly successful. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability concepts based on the distinction of four fundamental groups of vulnerability factors. This conceptual framework is applied to characterize the vulnerability concepts employed by the main schools of vulnerability research and to review earlier attempts at classifying vulnerability concepts. None of these one-dimensional classification schemes reflects the diversity of vulnerability concepts identified in this review. The wide range of policy responses available to address the risks from global climate change suggests that climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments will continue to apply a variety of vulnerability concepts. The framework presented here provides the much-needed conceptual clarity and facilitates bridging the various approaches to researching vulnerability to climate change.

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002     

[3] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Gallopín G <given-names>C.Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity[J]. Global Environmental Change, <year>2006, <volume>16(3): <fpage>293-<lpage>303.

This article uses a systemic perspective to identify and analyze the conceptual relations among vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity within socio-ecological systems (SES). Since different intellectual traditions use the terms in different, sometimes incompatible, ways, they emerge as strongly related but unclear in the precise nature of their relationships. A set of diagnostic questions is proposed regarding the specification of the terms to develop a shared conceptual framework for the natural and social dimensions of global change. Also, development of a general theory of change in SESs is suggested as an important agenda item for research on global change.

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.004     

[4] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Bohlen H <given-names>G.Vulnerability and criticality: Perspectives from social geography[R]. IHDP Update <volume>2/01, <fpage>2001. [5] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Turner B L <given-names>II,<name>Roger <given-names>E,Kasperson, <etal>et al.A Framework for Vulnerability Analysis in Sustainability Science[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, <year>2003, <volume>100(14):<fpage>8074-<lpage>8079.

Abstract Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1231335100      PMID: 12792023     

[6] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Cutter S <given-names>L.The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, <year>2003,<volume>93(1):<fpage>1-<lpage>12.

The events of September 11th shocked the nation and painfully illustrated our vulnerability to international terrorist attacks. Despite some of the most sophisticated models, monitoring systems, and science in the world, officials were unable to anticipate and predict these cascading events. The collective scientific ability to geographically represent environmental threats, map exposures, and map consequences is relatively straightforward when the threats are recognized. But what happens when we cannot recognize threats or some of their unintended consequences? This article examines the twin issues of the inadequacies in our current modes of understanding (the vulnerability of science) and the need for more integrative approaches in understanding and responding to environmental hazards (vulnerability science).

DOI: 10.1111/1467-8306.93101     

[7] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Turner II B <given-names>L, <name>Matson P <given-names>A, <name>McCarthy J <given-names>J,<etal>et al. Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis :Three case studies[J]. PNAS, <year>2003,<volume>100(14):<fpage>8080-<lpage>8085 .

The vulnerability framework of the Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program explicitly recognizes the coupled human-environment system and accounts for interactions in the coupling affecting the system's responses to hazards and its vulnerability. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the vulnerability framework through three case studies: the tropical southern Yucat謾n, the arid Yaqui Valley of northwest Mexico, and the pan-Arctic. Together, these examples illustrate the role of external forces in reshaping the systems in question and their vulnerability to environmental hazards, as well as the different capacities of stakeholders, based on their access to social and biophysical capital, to respond to the changes and hazards. The framework proves useful in directing attention to the interacting parts of the coupled system and helps identify gaps in information and understanding relevant to reducing vulnerability in the systems as a whole.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1231334100      PMID: 12815106     

[8] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Lures A <given-names>L,<name>Lobell D <given-names>B,<name>Sklar L <given-names>S,<etal>et al.A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of Yaqui Valley, Mexico[J]. Global Environmental Change, <year>2003,<volume>13(4): <fpage>255-<lpage>267.

We propose measuring vulnerability of selected outcome variables of concern (e.g. agricultural yield) to identified stressors (e.g. climate change) as a function of the state of the variables of concern relative to a threshold of damage, the sensitivity of the variables to the stressors, and the magnitude and frequency of the stressors to which the system is exposed. In addition, we provide a framework for assessing the extent adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerable conditions. We illustrate the utility of this approach by evaluating the vulnerability of wheat yields to climate change and market fluctuations in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.

DOI: 10.1016/S0959-3780(03)00054-2     

[9] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Hallie <given-names>C.Eakin·Mónica B. Wehbe. Linking local vulnerability to system sustainability in a resilience Framework: two cases from Latin America[J]. Climatic Change, <year>2009, (93): <fpage>355-<lpage>377.

Collectively, individual adjustments to environmental and economic change can have disproportionate influence on the sustainability of the broader social–environmental system in which exposure takes place. Here we focus on the specific mechanisms by which farm-level responses to globalization and environmental change feedback to affect the sustainability and resilience of the social–environment system. We use a proposal by Lambin as an analytical frame for understanding this feedback, illustrating how information, motivation and capacity collectively structure the ways in which the actions of individuals can transform regional economies and landscapes. We draw on two Latin American case studies to illustrate the collective and synergistic implications of farmers’ livelihood and land use choices for the sensitivity of the region to future market and environmental shocks, as well as for the role of the landscapes in the global carbon cycle. We argue that the potential disconnect between individual goals of livelihood security and broader aims of system sustainability can be bridged through improved governance and attention to the role of policy, individual and collective experience, and resource constraints in adaptive choice.

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9514-x     

[10] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Cifdaloz <given-names>O,Regmi.A,Anderies J, et al. Robustness, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity in small-scale social-ecological systems:The Pumpa Irrigation System in Nepal[J]. Ecology and Society, <volume>15(3):<fpage>39.

Change in freshwater availability is arguably one of the most pressing issues associated with global change. Agriculture, which uses roughly 70% of the total global freshwater supply, figures prominently among sectors that may be adversely affected by global change. Of specific concern are small-scale agricultural systems that make up nearly 90% of all farming systems and generate 40% of agricultural output worldwide. These systems are experiencing a range of novel shocks, including increased variability in precipitation and competing demands for water and labor that challenge their capacity to maintain agricultural output. This paper employs a robustness-vulnerability trade-off framework to explore the capacity of these small-scale systems to cope with novel shocks and directed change. Motivated by the Pumpa Irrigation System in Nepal, we develop and analyze a simple model of rice-paddy irrigation and use it to demonstrate how institutional arrangements may, in becoming very well tuned to cope with specific shocks and manage particular human interactions associated with irrigated agriculture, generate vulnerabilities to novel shocks. This characterization of robustness-vulnerability trade-off relationships is then used to inform policy options to improve the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to adapt to changes in freshwater availability.

DOI: 10.1890/08-2244.1     

[11] <mixed-citation publication-type="book" publication-format="print"><name lang="CN">張平宇. 礦業(yè)城市人地系統(tǒng)脆弱性:理論·方法·實(shí)證[M].北京:科學(xué)出版社,<year>2011. [12] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">徐瑱. SES框架下地區(qū)脆弱性研究[D].蘭州:蘭州大學(xué),<year>2009. [13] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">陳曉紅,<name lang="CN">萬魯河.城市化與生態(tài)環(huán)境耦合的脆弱性與協(xié)調(diào)性作用機(jī)制研究[J].地理科學(xué),<year>2013,<volume>33(12):<fpage>1450~<lpage>1457.

城市化與生態(tài)環(huán)境耦合受到人類 活動高強(qiáng)度干擾,要實(shí)現(xiàn)耦合的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展與脆弱性的減少需要一定內(nèi)外力的強(qiáng)力支撐。在闡述城市化與生態(tài)環(huán)境耦合脆弱性與協(xié)調(diào)性概念、特征的基礎(chǔ)上,提出城市 化與生態(tài)環(huán)境耦合的協(xié)調(diào)性與脆弱性是在自然條件與孕災(zāi)環(huán)境、人口素質(zhì)與城市文明、產(chǎn)業(yè)升級與技術(shù)進(jìn)步、制度創(chuàng)新與管理科學(xué)、系統(tǒng)自身的恢復(fù)力等多種機(jī)制的 共同作用下發(fā)展的。通過挖掘城市化與生態(tài)環(huán)境耦合的脆弱性與協(xié)調(diào)性之間的的宏觀作用機(jī)制,促進(jìn)城市化與生態(tài)環(huán)境的良性互動,為提高城市與區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展能 力提供科學(xué)參考。

[14] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">蘇飛,<name lang="CN">陳媛,<name lang="CN">張平宇.基于集對分析的旅游城市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評價——以舟山市為例[J].地理科學(xué),<year>2013,<volume>33(5):<fpage>538~<lpage>544.

基于經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)脆弱性的內(nèi)涵，從敏感性和應(yīng)對能力2個方面建立了旅游城市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評價指標(biāo)體系，采用熵值法確定各評價指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，運(yùn)用集對分析法構(gòu)建了脆弱性評估模型。以群島旅游城市舟山為例，分析了1995---2010年舟山市旅游型經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)脆弱性的演變特征及主要影響因素。結(jié)果表明：①舟山市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)對不利擾動的敏感性呈下降趨勢，區(qū)域應(yīng)對能力波動上升，系統(tǒng)脆弱性整體上呈現(xiàn)不斷下降態(tài)勢；②敏感性的強(qiáng)弱對舟山經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)脆弱性的影響居于主導(dǎo)地位；⑨總游客量增長率、旅游外匯收入占旅游總收入比重、地方財政自給率、客源市場集中度等是影響系統(tǒng)脆弱性的關(guān)鍵因子：地方財政自給率低、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理及教育投入不足是阻礙區(qū)域應(yīng)對能力提升的主要因素。

[15] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">李軍,<name lang="CN">保繼剛.旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)脆弱性特點(diǎn)與產(chǎn)業(yè)聯(lián)系[J].旅游學(xué)刊,<year>2011,<volume>26(6):<fpage>35~<lpage>41.

］影視旅游發(fā)展越來越體現(xiàn)出產(chǎn)業(yè)融合的特征，這使得從產(chǎn)業(yè)融合視角研究影視旅游具有重要意義�；诋a(chǎn)業(yè)融合的視角，影視旅游發(fā)展模式可以分為影視外景地旅游、影視故事發(fā)生地旅游、影視文化旅游、影視拍攝制作基地旅游、影視主題樂園旅游、影視節(jié)慶旅游等6類，其中前3類可以進(jìn)一步概括為影視傳播旅游，后3類可以概括為影視提供旅游內(nèi)容。影視所固有的傳播功能是前者的一個基礎(chǔ)，旅游吸引物的無邊界性則是后者的一個基礎(chǔ)，兩者共有的基礎(chǔ)則是影視和旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)共同的文化產(chǎn)業(yè)本質(zhì)。和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是信息化領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)業(yè)融合主要動力不同，需求發(fā)展導(dǎo)致的市場融合是影視旅游發(fā)展的根本動力。和信息化領(lǐng)域相同的是，企業(yè)同樣是影視產(chǎn)業(yè)和旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)融合發(fā)展的主體。

[16] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">王巖,<name lang="CN">方創(chuàng)琳.大慶市城市脆弱性綜合評價與動態(tài)演變研究[J].地理科學(xué),<year>2014,<volume>34(5):<fpage>547~<lpage>555.

城市脆弱性是指城市在發(fā)展過程中抵抗資源、生態(tài)環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會發(fā)展等內(nèi)外部自然要素和人為要素干擾的能力。當(dāng)這種抗干擾能力低于某一臨界閾值時,城市即進(jìn)入脆弱狀態(tài)。城市脆弱性一般包括資源脆弱性、生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱性、經(jīng)濟(jì)脆弱性和社會脆弱性四大類型,是上述四種脆弱性的綜合體現(xiàn)。大慶市是一座典型的資源型城市,具有明顯的脆弱性特征。采用系統(tǒng)分析方法和綜合指數(shù)評價法,分別對城市各子系統(tǒng)脆弱性和城市綜合脆弱性動態(tài)演變特征進(jìn)行研究,分析表明:①1990~2012年,大慶市資源脆弱性呈現(xiàn)增加趨勢,生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱性、經(jīng)濟(jì)脆弱性、社會脆弱性均呈現(xiàn)降低趨勢;②1990~2012年大慶市城市綜合脆弱性經(jīng)歷了"快速下降-波動下降-加速下降"3個變化階段,目前大慶市處于由中脆弱度向較低脆弱度的過度階段;③伴隨石油開采和城市發(fā)展,大慶市已經(jīng)從經(jīng)濟(jì)主導(dǎo)型脆弱性轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橘Y源主導(dǎo)型脆弱性,大慶市已處于城市發(fā)展的重要?dú)v史時期,亟需加快經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和城市轉(zhuǎn)型步伐,轉(zhuǎn)則興,不轉(zhuǎn)則衰。未來,應(yīng)持續(xù)關(guān)注資源型城市,加強(qiáng)資源型城市脆弱性的研究,進(jìn)一步總結(jié)城市脆弱性的發(fā)生機(jī)理與變化規(guī)律,為城市轉(zhuǎn)型和實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。

[17] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">李鶴,<name lang="CN">張平宇,<name lang="CN">程葉青.脆弱性的概念及其評價方法[J].地理科學(xué)進(jìn)展,<year>2008,<volume>27(2):<fpage>18~<lpage>25.

孫晶,<name lang="CN">王俊,<name lang="CN">楊新軍.社會-生態(tài)系統(tǒng)恢復(fù)力研究綜述[J].生態(tài)學(xué)報,<year>2007,<volume>27(12):<fpage>5371~<lpage>5381.

目前國內(nèi)外對脆弱性的論述很多，然而關(guān)于恢復(fù)力的研究卻剛剛起步且困難重重。1973年Holling創(chuàng)造性地將恢復(fù)力引入到生態(tài)系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性的研究中，并將其定義為系統(tǒng)吸收干擾并繼續(xù)維持其功能、結(jié)構(gòu)、反饋等不發(fā)生質(zhì)變的能力。30多年來這一術(shù)語的概念和內(nèi)涵在大量的案例研究中得到了豐富和完善，然而這些研究對恢復(fù)力的不同解釋亦造成了大量的混淆，因此需要在統(tǒng)一的理論基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)控制系統(tǒng)變化的屬性來構(gòu)建恢復(fù)力的概念并進(jìn)行應(yīng)用研究。在社會-生態(tài)系統(tǒng)框架下，分析了恢復(fù)力研究的基礎(chǔ)理論——適應(yīng)性循環(huán)及擾沌，對其概念及內(nèi)涵做了進(jìn)展綜述，回顧了恢復(fù)力的應(yīng)用案例，探討了定量化問題，在此基礎(chǔ)上對社會．生態(tài)系統(tǒng)恢復(fù)力的研究進(jìn)行了展望，提出了面臨的關(guān)鍵問題及今后的研究方向。

DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2007.12.050     

[19] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">劉小茜,<name lang="CN">王仰麟,<name lang="CN">彭建.人類環(huán)境-耦合系統(tǒng)脆弱性研究進(jìn)展[J].地球科學(xué)進(jìn)展,<year>2009,<volume>24(8):<fpage>918~<lpage>927. [20] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">姚建,<name lang="CN">艾南山,<name lang="CN">丁晶.中國生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱性及其評價研究進(jìn)展[J].蘭州大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版) ,<year>2003,<volume>39(3):<fpage>77~<lpage>80.

對近年來生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱性的研究進(jìn)行了歸納和總結(jié) ,著重論述了脆弱生態(tài)環(huán)境的含義、生態(tài)脆弱性的成因及其評價方法 ,為脆弱生態(tài)環(huán)境的保護(hù)和管理實(shí)踐提供借鑒 .

DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:0455-2059.2003.03.021     

[21] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">方一平,<name lang="CN">秦大河,<name lang="CN">丁永建.氣候變化脆弱性及其國際研究進(jìn)展[J].冰川凍土,<year>2009,<volume>31(3):<fpage>540~<lpage>545

脆弱性一詞廣泛應(yīng)用于不同的學(xué)科群體，由于各自學(xué)科研究傳統(tǒng)和知識背景的差異，對脆弱性的理解和界定具有很大的差異性.依據(jù)近年來國外在該領(lǐng)域的主要研究成果，總結(jié)和綜述了氣候變化脆弱性概念的基本要素、脆弱性因素的分類特征；梳理了國際研究在災(zāi)害與權(quán)利的關(guān)系、社會和生態(tài)的綜合集成方面的主流和進(jìn)展；分析了脆弱性研究在度量、實(shí)證和治理應(yīng)用等方面的主要挑戰(zhàn)和方向.

[22] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">張向龍,<name lang="CN">王俊,<name lang="CN">楊新軍,<etal lang="CN">等.情景分析及其在生態(tài)系統(tǒng)研究中的應(yīng)用[J].生態(tài)學(xué)雜志. <year>2008,<volume>27(10):<fpage>1763~<lpage>1770.

生態(tài)系統(tǒng)是一種具有多穩(wěn)態(tài)機(jī) 制、自適應(yīng)的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng),其未來往往難以準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測。情景分析方法針對影響系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵不確定性,通過對系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的幾種可能性進(jìn)行探索而構(gòu)建一組不同的未來景 象,改變現(xiàn)有心理模型,激發(fā)廣泛參與,提高決策有效性。近年來,情景分析方法在生態(tài)系統(tǒng)研究中得到了越來越多的關(guān)注。本文闡述了情景及情景分析的概念及其 發(fā)展,介紹了兩種典型的情景分析步驟,分析了情景分析與傳統(tǒng)生態(tài)預(yù)測方法的區(qū)別及其優(yōu)越性,回顧了情景分析在生態(tài)系統(tǒng)研究中應(yīng)用的經(jīng)典案例,最后對情景分 析其方法本身的發(fā)展和在生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中的應(yīng)用進(jìn)行了總結(jié)和展望。

DOI:     

[23] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">王俊,<name lang="CN">張向龍,<name lang="CN">楊新軍,<etal lang="CN">等.半干旱區(qū)社會-生態(tài)系統(tǒng)未來情景分析[J].生態(tài)學(xué)雜志. <year>2009,<volume>28(6):<fpage>1143~<lpage>1148.

正在我國西北半干旱地區(qū),頻繁 發(fā)生的干旱是最主要的氣候干擾因子,也是當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展和生態(tài)環(huán)境建設(shè)最主要的限制因素。如何應(yīng)對氣候變化及其不確定性,提高對干旱的恢復(fù)力和適應(yīng)能力,保 持社會經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)未來的可持續(xù)運(yùn)行和實(shí)現(xiàn)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性,是當(dāng)前學(xué)術(shù)界, 也是當(dāng)?shù)卣疀Q策部門面臨的主要目標(biāo)之一。由于半干旱區(qū)的社會一生態(tài)系統(tǒng)具有高度的不

DOI:     

[24] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">付加鋒,<name lang="CN">劉小敏.基于情景分析法的中國低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)研究框架與問題探索[J].資源科學(xué),<year>2010,<volume>32(2):<fpage>205~<lpage>210.

全球氣候變化是當(dāng)前國際社會關(guān) 注的熱點(diǎn)話題,人類必須一致行動應(yīng)對氣候變化帶來的挑戰(zhàn),越早采取行動越經(jīng)濟(jì)可行,發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)成為應(yīng)對全球氣候變化的重要戰(zhàn)略選擇。未來的不確定性使得 中國在面對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與溫室氣體減排壓力時的政策選擇難度加大,情景分析提供了一種有效的分析方法。與發(fā)達(dá)國家不同,中國低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景不可能在先設(shè)定減 排目標(biāo)的前提下,再采用反演方法設(shè)定情景并保障減排目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)。中國低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景的設(shè)計要更多關(guān)注中國可持續(xù)發(fā)展、能源安全和能源技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)競爭力, 并在經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展情況下對發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)有一定的投入。因此,中國低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景的設(shè)計要在社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平總體約束下,通過調(diào)整部門能源需求的驅(qū)動因素 加以實(shí)現(xiàn)。然而,"低碳"經(jīng)濟(jì)情景是一個相對概念,只有通過不同情景設(shè)計來選擇較為適合中國發(fā)展的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)情景模式。本文將對構(gòu)建中國未來低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情 景框架,關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)的選擇與設(shè)定,情景邏輯性檢驗(yàn)等方面的問題進(jìn)行探討,從而為中國走低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展道路提供參考。

[25] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">龍瀛,<name lang="CN">沈振江,<name lang="CN">毛其智,<etal lang="CN">等.基于約束性CA方法的北京城市形態(tài)情景分析[J].地理學(xué)報,<year>2010,<volume>65(6):<fpage>643~<lpage>655.

田金平,<name lang="CN">陳呂軍,<name lang="CN">杜鵬飛,<etal lang="CN">等.基于情景分析的浙江沿海地區(qū)環(huán)境污染防治戰(zhàn)略研究[J].環(huán)境科學(xué),<year>2013,<volume>34(1):<fpage>336~<lpage>346.

運(yùn)用情景分析方法研究了浙江沿海地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式對環(huán)境產(chǎn)生的壓 力.首先以COD、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物這4種污染物的排放量為基準(zhǔn),篩選了某典型城市的18個重污染工業(yè)行業(yè).其次以重污染工業(yè)行業(yè)為對象,設(shè)計了 情景分析模型和輔助程序,以2008年為基準(zhǔn)年,目標(biāo)年2015年重污染工業(yè)行業(yè)4種污染物的排放量須在基準(zhǔn)年基礎(chǔ)上下降一定比例作為約束條件,分析在基 準(zhǔn)情景、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整情景、工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整情景、清潔生產(chǎn)技術(shù)情景、綜合情景、可持續(xù)發(fā)展6種情景下,目標(biāo)年該市18個重污染行業(yè)4種主要污染物的排放量. 目的是明確人均GDP已突破70 000元的沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)城市如何轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式,使經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時,污染物排放量有所減少,以期為優(yōu)化工業(yè)行業(yè)發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)提供決策參考.基于情景分析結(jié)論,提 出了進(jìn)一步發(fā)展建議,包括經(jīng)濟(jì)適度增長(GDP增長7％左右),加大力度調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),控制重污染行業(yè)發(fā)展速度,加強(qiáng)重污染行業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,加強(qiáng)源頭控 制,加大力度推進(jìn)清潔生產(chǎn)技術(shù),大幅削減污染物產(chǎn)生量,同時加強(qiáng)治污設(shè)施運(yùn)營監(jiān)管,提高污染物去除效率.通過上述措施在目標(biāo)年可控制重污染行業(yè)的COD、 氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物分別在基準(zhǔn)年基礎(chǔ)上下降10％、10％、5％和15％.

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8791.2014.08.028     

[27] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">盧毅,<name lang="CN">李理,<name lang="CN">趙勇,<etal lang="CN">等.基于情景分析的城市空間與產(chǎn)業(yè)戰(zhàn)略布局選擇——以宜賓市為例[J].經(jīng)濟(jì)地理,<year>2013,<volume>3:<fpage>93~<lpage>98,138.

針對常規(guī)預(yù)測方法難于解決宜賓市當(dāng)前形勢下空間與產(chǎn)業(yè)戰(zhàn)略布局的 問題,應(yīng)用情景分析方法,明確其關(guān)鍵影響因素和核心問題,構(gòu)建出多核、單核、帶狀等三種最有可能出現(xiàn)的情景方案,進(jìn)行分析評價,作出宜賓市“多核發(fā)展”空 間戰(zhàn)略布局選擇.在協(xié)調(diào)統(tǒng)籌考慮空間、交通因素的基礎(chǔ)上,制定出宜賓“三核心三軸十二組團(tuán)”的模式與產(chǎn)業(yè)戰(zhàn)略布局選擇及其發(fā)展策略.

[28] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">梁友嘉,<name lang="CN">徐中民,<name lang="CN">鐘方雷.基于SD和CLUE-S模型的張掖市甘州區(qū)土地利用情景分析[J].地理研究,<year>2011,<volume>301(3):<fpage>564~<lpage>576.

近年來，學(xué)者們基于不同研究需要開發(fā)了很多土地利用變化／覆蓋（LUCC）模型。但迄今沒有一個單獨(dú)的模型可在不同時空尺度上揭示所有土地利用變化的關(guān)鍵過程。本文嘗試開發(fā)一種集成SD模型與CLUE—S模型的建模方法，用以彌補(bǔ)已有LUCC模型缺陷，并將其應(yīng)用于張掖市甘州區(qū)的土地利用情景分析中，得到的LUCC模擬結(jié)果可為該區(qū)土地利用規(guī)劃和環(huán)境管理提供一定的決策支持，同時為基于不同LUCC下墊面的水文過程情景分析提供源數(shù)據(jù)。結(jié)論如下：（1）開發(fā)了一個能夠反映人類活動影響的SD模型，，用于預(yù)測2000～2035年間不同土地利用類型在不同社會經(jīng)濟(jì)情景下的總需求量。（2）利用CLUE-S模型實(shí)現(xiàn)了土地利用需求驅(qū)動下的土地利用變化過程的空間表現(xiàn)。2000年土地利用模擬圖的Kappa值為0．86，2005年的Kappa值為0．81，集成模型的整體精度較高，500m×500m的空間格網(wǎng)分析尺度適合研究區(qū)。（3）分析該集成建模優(yōu)勢及不足，為后續(xù)工作做好鋪墊。

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2011.00415     

[29] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Jacqueline D <given-names>C,<name>Fabien <given-names>Q,<name>Sandra <given-names>L,<etal>et al.Including multiple differing stakeholder values into vulnerability assessments of social-ecological systems[J]. Global Environmental Change, <year>2008,(18):<fpage>508-<lpage>520. [30] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">楊正勇,<name lang="CN">楊懷宇,<name lang="CN">郭宗香.農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值研究進(jìn)展[J].中國生態(tài)農(nóng)業(yè)學(xué)報,<year>2009,<volume>17(5):<fpage>1045~<lpage>1050.

農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)提供的服務(wù)對人類的可持續(xù)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。該系統(tǒng)的一些服務(wù)價值因在市場上未能反映出來而往往被人類所忽略, 正確評價此類系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值具有重要意義。本文在系統(tǒng)回顧該領(lǐng)域研究進(jìn)程的基礎(chǔ)上, 從研究方法、研究內(nèi)容、研究尺度、支撐學(xué)科等方面總結(jié)了現(xiàn)有研究的特點(diǎn), 從所揭示的生態(tài)服務(wù)價值的完全程度、研究視角的廣泛程度、研究方法的完善程度、研究領(lǐng)域的涵蓋程度等方面分析了國內(nèi)研究中存在的基本問題, 進(jìn)而指出, 學(xué)術(shù)界在林地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)、草地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)以及價值評估方法的研究方面已經(jīng)取得了眾多成果, 在農(nóng)田生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值的研究方面也取得了一定進(jìn)展, 但農(nóng)田生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值、非市場價值評估方法研究等方面需要重點(diǎn)突破, 對林地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)、草地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的研究也需要在價值構(gòu)成、生態(tài)服務(wù)價值的時空變化等方面進(jìn)一步探討。

[31] <mixed-citation publication-type="book" publication-format="print"><name>Millennium Ecosystem <given-names>Assessment.Chapter 6:concepts of ecosystem value and valuation approaches.In:Ecosystems and Well-Being: A Framework for Assessment[M].Washington: Island Press,<year>2003. [32] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Cornelissen J H <given-names>C,<name>Lavorel <given-names>S,<name>Garnier <given-names>E,<etal>et al.A handbook of protocols for standardized and easy measurement of plant functional traits worldwide[J].Australian Journal of Botany, <year>2003,<volume>51(4):<fpage>335-<lpage>380. [33] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Hodgson J <given-names>G,<name>Wilson P <given-names>J,<name>Hunt <given-names>R, <etal>et al.Allocating CSR plant functional types:a soft approach to a hard problem[J].Oikos,<year>1999:<fpage>282-<lpage>294.

ABSTRACT A long-term research programme, conducted mainly in northern England, has involved field surveys (1965-77), laboratory screening (1974-96), monitoring of permanent plots (1958 to date) and manipulative experiments (1987 to date). The so-called C-S-R classification of plant functional types developed from all this activity. Patterns of covariation among the traits used in the classification have recently been validated in this journal. The C-S-R classification appears to be applicable to vegetation in general. It thus has considerable potential for interpreting and predicting vegetation and ecosystem properties on a world-wide scale. However, to realize this potential we need to develop simplified procedures to extrapolate the C-S-R system to the many species which have not been the subject of previous ecological investigation. Here we describe a rapid method for attribution of C-S-R type and we test its accuracy in Britain by comparing it with an independent classification based upon more laborious procedures. The new method allocates a functional type to an unknown herbaceous subject using few, simple predictor variables. We have developed spreadsheets to perform all of the necessary calculations. These may be downloaded from the UCPE website at , or obtained by direct application to the E-mail address ucpe@sheffield.ac.uk

DOI: 10.2307/3546494     

[34] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Garnier <given-names>E,<name>Lavorel <given-names>S,<name>Ansquer <given-names>P.Assessing the effects of land-use change on plant traits,communities,andecosystem functioning in grasslands:a standardized methodology and lessons from an application to 11 European sites[J].Annals of Botany,<year>2007,(99):<fpage>967-<lpage>985.:oai:DiVA.org:su-21403 [35] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Norton B <given-names>G,<name>Noonan <given-names>D.Ecology and valuation:big changes needed.Ecological Economics[J].<year>2007, <volume>63(4):<fpage>664-<lpage>675.

Ecological Economics has developed as a “transdisciplinary science,” but it has not taken significant steps toward a truly integrated process of evaluating anthropogenic ecological change. The emerging dominance within ecological economics of the movement to monetize “ecological services,” when combined with the already well-entrenched dominance of contingent pricing as a means to evaluate impacts on amenities, has created a “monistic” approach to valuation studies. It is argued that this monistic approach to evaluating anthropogenic impacts is inconsistent with a sophisticated conception of ecology as a complex science that rests on shifting metaphors. An alternative, pluralistic and iterative approach to valuation of anthropogenic ecological change is proposed.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.02.013     

[36] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Luers A <given-names>L.The surface of vulnerability: an analytical framework for examining environmental change[J].Global Environmental Change,<year>2005,(15):<fpage>214-<lpage>223.

This paper introduces an analytical framework for evaluating the vulnerability of people and places to environmental and social forces. The framework represents the relative vulnerability of a variable of concern (e.g. such as agricultural yield) to a set of disturbing forces (e.g. climate change, market fluctuations) by a position on a three-dimensional analytical surface, where vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity, exposure, and the state relative to a threshold of damage. The surface is presented as a tool to help identify relative vulnerability in order to prioritize actions and assess the vulnerability implications of management and policy decisions.

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.04.003     

[1] 李博, 楊智, 蘇飛, 孫才志, 許妍, 郭建科, 王澤宇. 基于集對分析的中國海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)脆弱性研究[J]. 地理科學(xué), 2016, 36(1): 47-54.

[2] 權(quán)瑞松. 多情景視角的上海中心城區(qū)地鐵暴雨內(nèi)澇暴露性分析[J]. 地理科學(xué), 2015, 35(4): 471-475.

[3] 楊艷茹, 王士君, 陳曉紅. 石油城市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)脆弱性動態(tài)演變及調(diào)控途徑研究——以大慶市為例[J]. 地理科學(xué), 2015, 35(4): 456-463.

[4] 李永化,范強(qiáng),王雪,席建超,王詩陽,楊俊. 基于SRP模型的自然災(zāi)害多發(fā)區(qū)生態(tài)脆弱性時空分異研究——以遼寧省朝陽縣為例[J]. 地理科學(xué), 2015, 35(11): 1452-1459.

[5] 鄒君,鄭文武,楊玉蓉. 基于GIS/RS的南方丘陵區(qū)農(nóng)村水資源系統(tǒng)脆弱性評價——以衡陽盆地為例[J]. 地理科學(xué), 2014, 34(8): 1010-1017.

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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于集對分析的旅游城市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評價——以舟山市為例，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

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