新時(shí)期國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的抗周期性及動(dòng)力機(jī)制分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-02 07:48
【摘要】：我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展,快速增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)推動(dòng)居民的收入水平不斷提高,居民的消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變升級(jí),閑暇時(shí)間的增多,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游受惠于這些有利因素快速發(fā)展。不同于傳統(tǒng)觀念將旅游消費(fèi)作為非必須消費(fèi),認(rèn)為其具有脆弱性,本文在進(jìn)行相關(guān)概念辨析、界定的基礎(chǔ)上,發(fā)現(xiàn)旅游的脆弱性主要表現(xiàn)在對(duì)危機(jī)事件的敏感性,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游具有抗周期性。界定了新時(shí)期的時(shí)間范圍是從1994年到2012年。通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)旅游新特性的研究,本文得到以下結(jié)論： (1)結(jié)合我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的發(fā)展周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展周期波動(dòng),對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的抗周期性進(jìn)行定義分析。國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的抗周期性指的是,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展和居民的國(guó)內(nèi)旅游需求,受到短期經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的影響較小,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的周期波動(dòng)呈現(xiàn)出一定的抗跌性,對(duì)危機(jī)事件呈現(xiàn)后危機(jī)反彈。國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的抗周期性是新時(shí)期內(nèi)國(guó)內(nèi)旅游發(fā)展中明顯呈現(xiàn)出的新特性,在擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需、拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中發(fā)揮了重要作用。 (2)針對(duì)我國(guó)社會(huì)顯著的二元結(jié)構(gòu),從國(guó)內(nèi)旅游整體、城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民國(guó)內(nèi)旅游分別研究其在新時(shí)期呈現(xiàn)出的抗周期性,其具體表現(xiàn)形式為：發(fā)展周期長(zhǎng)、周期內(nèi)波動(dòng)幅度小、周期內(nèi)的平均增長(zhǎng)率高,國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)的階段內(nèi),GDP和國(guó)內(nèi)旅游都能在高速率增長(zhǎng)中平穩(wěn)發(fā)展,但國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的增長(zhǎng)率高于GDP的增長(zhǎng)率,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的發(fā)展能夠正向拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展；抗經(jīng)濟(jì)周期,發(fā)生危機(jī)事件時(shí),沖擊我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì),使GDP增長(zhǎng)出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重下滑,國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游會(huì)出現(xiàn)逆向上升的趨勢(shì),或者增長(zhǎng)率下降幅度小于GDP增長(zhǎng)率的下降幅度,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游對(duì)短期經(jīng)濟(jì)周期呈現(xiàn)出一定的抗跌性；抗危機(jī)周期,當(dāng)遭遇重大危機(jī)事件之后,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游迅速恢復(fù)形成后危機(jī)反彈,危機(jī)之后的反彈能力強(qiáng),表現(xiàn)為國(guó)內(nèi)旅游增長(zhǎng)的反彈速度快于GDP增長(zhǎng)的恢復(fù)速度,,形成了對(duì)危機(jī)年份旅游損失的補(bǔ)償式發(fā)展,呈“V”字型,表現(xiàn)出強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)慣性和恢復(fù)能力,反彈速度高于GDP的恢復(fù)速度。 (3)通過(guò)分析新時(shí)期國(guó)內(nèi)旅游發(fā)展階段內(nèi)居民的收入—國(guó)內(nèi)旅游價(jià)格的變化發(fā)現(xiàn)：居民收入增長(zhǎng)快,旅游價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)慢,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游快速發(fā)展；居民收入增長(zhǎng)慢,旅游價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)快,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游發(fā)展緩慢。通過(guò)構(gòu)建雙對(duì)數(shù)需求函數(shù)模型,比較國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的需求價(jià)格彈性和需求收入彈性,得到國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的需求收入彈性大,需求價(jià)格彈性小,說(shuō)明我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的需求剛性,具有一定的增長(zhǎng)慣性。 (4)國(guó)內(nèi)旅游需求具有剛性,其發(fā)展具有一定的增長(zhǎng)慣性,形成了抗周期性形成的內(nèi)在動(dòng)力機(jī)制。人們對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的選擇對(duì)于價(jià)格的考慮較小,收入成為主要的影響因素,當(dāng)居民收入增長(zhǎng)速度快,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)速度慢時(shí),居民的國(guó)內(nèi)旅游需求旺盛,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游會(huì)快速增長(zhǎng)；而當(dāng)居民收入增長(zhǎng)速度慢,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)速度快時(shí),居民的國(guó)內(nèi)旅游需求無(wú)法得到完全滿(mǎn)足,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游發(fā)展滯緩。因此當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)在高速穩(wěn)定發(fā)展周期內(nèi),居民收入高速增長(zhǎng)增加,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)；國(guó)內(nèi)旅游成為剛性需求,具有一定的增長(zhǎng)慣性。面對(duì)突發(fā)性事件,經(jīng)濟(jì)周期出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游依靠其增長(zhǎng)慣性,能夠?qū)p小其受干擾程度,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游增長(zhǎng)率的下降幅度小于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速率的下降幅度,或出現(xiàn)出一定的逆向上升趨勢(shì),呈現(xiàn)出抗跌性。在遭遇重大危機(jī)事件之后,由于國(guó)內(nèi)旅游的需求剛性,人們會(huì)暫時(shí)取消或者延緩出行計(jì)劃,積攢能量,當(dāng)事件結(jié)束后會(huì)繼續(xù)原來(lái)的旅游活動(dòng),使國(guó)內(nèi)旅游能夠迅速恢復(fù)并形成后危機(jī)反彈。 本文研究了新時(shí)期內(nèi)國(guó)內(nèi)旅游出現(xiàn)的抗周期性,對(duì)其進(jìn)行了定義,分析其表現(xiàn)形式,研究其形成的動(dòng)力機(jī)制。同時(shí)證明了國(guó)內(nèi)旅游具有需求剛性,存在一定的增長(zhǎng)慣性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the rapid growth of the national economy has promoted the income level of the residents, the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents, the increase of leisure time, and the rapid development of the domestic tourism. On the basis of related concept discrimination and definition, it is found that the vulnerability of tourism is mainly manifested in sensitivity to crisis events and domestic tourism is cyclical. The time range of the new period is from 1994 to 2012. Through the study of the new characteristics of domestic tourism, the following conclusions are obtained.
(1) according to the development cycle of domestic tourism and the fluctuation of economic development cycle, the anti periodicity of domestic tourism is defined and analyzed. The anti periodicity of domestic tourism refers to the development of the domestic tourism industry and the domestic tourism demand of the residents, which are less influenced by the short-term economic cycle wave, and show the periodic fluctuation of the economy. In the new period, the anti cyclical nature of domestic tourism is a new characteristic in the development of domestic tourism, which plays an important role in expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic growth.
(2) in view of the significant two yuan structure in our country, from the whole domestic tourism, the urban residents and the domestic tourism of the rural residents respectively study its anti cyclical characteristics in the new period. The specific forms are: the long period of development, the small fluctuation within the cycle, the high rate of flat growth within the cycle, and the continuous and rapid growth of domestic economy, G DP and domestic tourism can develop steadily in high rate growth, but the growth rate of domestic tourism is higher than the growth rate of GDP. The development of domestic tourism can stimulate the economic development. In the case of the anti economic cycle and crisis events, the impact of the economy on our country makes the growth of GDP serious down, the domestic economy decline and the domestic tourism will appear reverse. The trend of rising, or the decline of growth rate is less than the decrease of GDP growth rate, the domestic tourism shows a certain resistance to the short term economic cycle, the anti crisis cycle, the rapid recovery of domestic tourism after the crisis, the rebound of the crisis after the crisis, the strong rebound ability after the crisis, and the reflection of the growth of domestic tourism. The rebound speed is faster than the GDP growth rate, which forms a compensatory development for the loss of the crisis year, showing a "V" type, showing strong growth inertia and recovery ability, and the rebound speed is higher than the recovery rate of GDP.
(3) by analyzing the changes of residents' income and domestic tourism prices in the stage of domestic tourism development in the new period, it is found that the growth of residents' income, the slow growth of tourism prices, the rapid development of domestic tourism, the slow growth of residents' income, the rapid growth of tourism prices, and the slow development of domestic tourism. By constructing a dual logarithmic demand function model, the domestic tourism is comparatively slow. Tourism demand price elasticity and demand elasticity of demand income elasticity, the domestic tourism demand income elasticity, demand price elasticity is small, indicating that China's domestic tourism demand is rigid, with a certain growth inertia.
(4) the domestic tourism demand is rigid, its development has a certain growth inertia and has formed the internal dynamic mechanism of anti cyclical formation. The choice of domestic tourism is less considered for the price, and the income becomes the main influence factor. When the growth rate of the residents' income is fast, the domestic tourism price is slow, the resident's domestic With the high demand for tourism and the rapid growth of domestic tourism, the domestic tourism demand can not be fully satisfied and the domestic tourism development is slow when the growth rate of residents' income is slow and the domestic tourism price is growing fast, so the domestic tourism development is slow. Therefore, when the economy is in the high speed and stable development cycle, the high speed increase of residents' income and the continuous high speed of domestic tourism Growth; domestic tourism is a rigid demand, with a certain growth inertia. In the face of sudden events, when the economic cycle fluctuates, the economy falls, the domestic tourism depends on its growth inertia and can reduce the degree of its interference. The decline in the growth rate of domestic tourism is less than the decline in economic growth rate, or a certain inverse. After the major crisis, due to the rigid domestic tourism demand, people will temporarily cancel or postpone the trip plan, accumulate energy, and continue the original tourism activities after the end of the event, so that domestic tourism can quickly recover and form a post crisis rebound.
This paper studies the anti periodicity of domestic tourism in the new period, defines it, analyzes its form of expression, and studies the dynamic mechanism of its formation. It also proves that domestic tourism has a rigid demand and a certain growth inertia.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F592
本文編號(hào)：2158702
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the rapid growth of the national economy has promoted the income level of the residents, the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents, the increase of leisure time, and the rapid development of the domestic tourism. On the basis of related concept discrimination and definition, it is found that the vulnerability of tourism is mainly manifested in sensitivity to crisis events and domestic tourism is cyclical. The time range of the new period is from 1994 to 2012. Through the study of the new characteristics of domestic tourism, the following conclusions are obtained.
(1) according to the development cycle of domestic tourism and the fluctuation of economic development cycle, the anti periodicity of domestic tourism is defined and analyzed. The anti periodicity of domestic tourism refers to the development of the domestic tourism industry and the domestic tourism demand of the residents, which are less influenced by the short-term economic cycle wave, and show the periodic fluctuation of the economy. In the new period, the anti cyclical nature of domestic tourism is a new characteristic in the development of domestic tourism, which plays an important role in expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic growth.
(2) in view of the significant two yuan structure in our country, from the whole domestic tourism, the urban residents and the domestic tourism of the rural residents respectively study its anti cyclical characteristics in the new period. The specific forms are: the long period of development, the small fluctuation within the cycle, the high rate of flat growth within the cycle, and the continuous and rapid growth of domestic economy, G DP and domestic tourism can develop steadily in high rate growth, but the growth rate of domestic tourism is higher than the growth rate of GDP. The development of domestic tourism can stimulate the economic development. In the case of the anti economic cycle and crisis events, the impact of the economy on our country makes the growth of GDP serious down, the domestic economy decline and the domestic tourism will appear reverse. The trend of rising, or the decline of growth rate is less than the decrease of GDP growth rate, the domestic tourism shows a certain resistance to the short term economic cycle, the anti crisis cycle, the rapid recovery of domestic tourism after the crisis, the rebound of the crisis after the crisis, the strong rebound ability after the crisis, and the reflection of the growth of domestic tourism. The rebound speed is faster than the GDP growth rate, which forms a compensatory development for the loss of the crisis year, showing a "V" type, showing strong growth inertia and recovery ability, and the rebound speed is higher than the recovery rate of GDP.
(3) by analyzing the changes of residents' income and domestic tourism prices in the stage of domestic tourism development in the new period, it is found that the growth of residents' income, the slow growth of tourism prices, the rapid development of domestic tourism, the slow growth of residents' income, the rapid growth of tourism prices, and the slow development of domestic tourism. By constructing a dual logarithmic demand function model, the domestic tourism is comparatively slow. Tourism demand price elasticity and demand elasticity of demand income elasticity, the domestic tourism demand income elasticity, demand price elasticity is small, indicating that China's domestic tourism demand is rigid, with a certain growth inertia.
(4) the domestic tourism demand is rigid, its development has a certain growth inertia and has formed the internal dynamic mechanism of anti cyclical formation. The choice of domestic tourism is less considered for the price, and the income becomes the main influence factor. When the growth rate of the residents' income is fast, the domestic tourism price is slow, the resident's domestic With the high demand for tourism and the rapid growth of domestic tourism, the domestic tourism demand can not be fully satisfied and the domestic tourism development is slow when the growth rate of residents' income is slow and the domestic tourism price is growing fast, so the domestic tourism development is slow. Therefore, when the economy is in the high speed and stable development cycle, the high speed increase of residents' income and the continuous high speed of domestic tourism Growth; domestic tourism is a rigid demand, with a certain growth inertia. In the face of sudden events, when the economic cycle fluctuates, the economy falls, the domestic tourism depends on its growth inertia and can reduce the degree of its interference. The decline in the growth rate of domestic tourism is less than the decline in economic growth rate, or a certain inverse. After the major crisis, due to the rigid domestic tourism demand, people will temporarily cancel or postpone the trip plan, accumulate energy, and continue the original tourism activities after the end of the event, so that domestic tourism can quickly recover and form a post crisis rebound.
This paper studies the anti periodicity of domestic tourism in the new period, defines it, analyzes its form of expression, and studies the dynamic mechanism of its formation. It also proves that domestic tourism has a rigid demand and a certain growth inertia.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F592
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