本文選題：旅游服務(wù)　切入點：貿(mào)易逆差　出處：《廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易作為國際服務(wù)貿(mào)易11項分類的其中之一，其對于一國經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻度以及外匯創(chuàng)收，平衡貿(mào)易收支的重要性已經(jīng)越來越受到各國政府的重視。作為西方七大工業(yè)國之一的加拿大，其旅游統(tǒng)計工作一直走在世界各國的前列，但其旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支卻長期處于逆差狀態(tài)�；诖�，本文試圖探究影響加拿大旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支的主要因素，并從匯率的價格傳導(dǎo)機制，匯率的彈性傳導(dǎo)機制，以及各變量的動態(tài)分析三個層面通過實證模型的設(shè)計來分析。 首先，在前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，總結(jié)出影響貿(mào)易收支的主要因素，將匯率作為主要影響因素，收入等其他因素作為控制變量。針對服務(wù)貿(mào)易有別于貨物貿(mào)易的特殊性，國外已有學(xué)者對現(xiàn)有的貨物貿(mào)易理論分析框架進行改進，得出有入境旅游項的理論模型來分析匯率變動對于旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支的影響及其動態(tài)調(diào)整過程。本文在此基礎(chǔ)上，選取加拿大1986至2012年間國家旅游統(tǒng)計指標(NTI)的季度數(shù)據(jù)，進行實證分析。 其次，實證分析主要從以下三個層面進行(1)基于匯率的價格傳導(dǎo)機制的實證。分別通過價格長期協(xié)整方程和旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支長期協(xié)整方程，探討名義有效匯率變動對于加拿大旅游價格的傳導(dǎo)彈性大小，同時從匯率傳導(dǎo)視角分析，名義有效匯率下降是否改善旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支；(2)基于匯率彈性傳導(dǎo)機制的實證。通過建立旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口，進口，貿(mào)易收支的三個長期協(xié)整方程式，探究馬歇爾勒那條件是否成立，實際有效匯率是如何通過彈性理論影響貿(mào)易收支的；(3)匯率對旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支影響的動態(tài)VAR模型設(shè)計。分析實際有效匯率對于貿(mào)易收支的動態(tài)影響機制，探究加拿大旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支的主要影響因素，并分析導(dǎo)致加拿大旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易長期逆差的原因。 最后，得出以下結(jié)論：(1)匯率波動對于旅游價格的傳導(dǎo)彈性幾乎為零，但對于國內(nèi)價格的傳導(dǎo)彈性大于1，考慮價格傳導(dǎo)，名義有效匯率下降有利于改善加拿大旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支；(2)實際有效匯率的進出口彈性系數(shù)的絕對值之和大于1，馬歇爾勒納條件成立，不考慮價格傳導(dǎo)，僅從匯率的彈性傳導(dǎo)機制分析，，加元貶值，有利于貿(mào)易收支的改善，且不存在”J”曲線效應(yīng)；(3)出境游的價格效應(yīng)大于收入效應(yīng)，加拿大國內(nèi)實際收入提高等供給因素的改善，并不會從出境端惡化旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支；(4)入境游的收入效應(yīng)大于價格效應(yīng)，“口碑效應(yīng)”明顯。入境游客對于匯率的預(yù)期會影響其入境旅游決定，而匯率的影響具有短期性，長期來看，逆轉(zhuǎn)貿(mào)易收支逆差最根本的途徑是要從供給的角度提升加拿大旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易的國際競爭力；(5)貿(mào)易收支的改善具有良性循環(huán)性，具有“馬太效應(yīng)”，因此改善加拿大旅游貿(mào)易逆差，實現(xiàn)旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支平衡勢在必行。
[Abstract]:As one of the 11 categories of international trade in services, the contribution of tourism service trade to a country's economic growth and foreign exchange income, and the importance of balancing trade income and expenditure have been paid more and more attention by the governments of all countries.As one of the seven largest industrial countries in the West, Canada has always been in the forefront of tourism statistics work in the world, but its trade balance in tourism services has been in deficit for a long time.Based on this, this paper attempts to explore the main factors affecting Canadian tourism services trade balance, and from the exchange rate price transmission mechanism, exchange rate elasticity transmission mechanism,And three levels of dynamic analysis of variables through empirical model design to analyze.Firstly, on the basis of the previous research results, the paper summarizes the main factors that affect the trade balance, taking the exchange rate as the main influencing factor, and other factors such as income as the control variable.In view of the particularity of trade in services different from trade in goods, foreign scholars have improved the existing theoretical analysis framework of trade in goods.The theoretical model with entry tourism item is obtained to analyze the influence of exchange rate change on the trade balance of tourism services and its dynamic adjustment process.On this basis, the quarterly data of Canada National Tourism Statistics Index from 1986 to 2012 are selected for empirical analysis.Secondly, the empirical analysis mainly from the following three levels) based on the exchange rate of price transmission mechanism.Through the long-term cointegration equation of price and the long-term cointegration equation of trade balance in tourism services, the paper discusses the conduction elasticity of nominal effective exchange rate change to Canadian tourism price, and analyzes it from the angle of exchange rate transmission.Whether the decline of nominal effective exchange rate can improve the balance of trade in tourism services is based on the exchange rate elasticity transmission mechanism.Through the establishment of three long-term cointegration equations for the export, import, and balance of trade in tourism services, we will explore whether the conditions in Machelle are valid.How does the real effective exchange rate affect the trade balance through the elasticity theory? the dynamic VAR model of the impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance of tourism services is designed.This paper analyzes the dynamic influence mechanism of the real effective exchange rate on the trade balance, probes into the main influencing factors of Canada's tourism services trade balance, and analyzes the reasons leading to the long-term deficit of Canada's tourism services trade.Finally, we draw the following conclusion: (1) Exchange rate fluctuations have almost zero conductive elasticity for tourism prices, but for domestic prices, the conduction elasticity is greater than 1. Consider price conduction.The decline of nominal effective exchange rate is conducive to improving the balance of trade in tourism services in Canada. (2) the sum of the absolute value of the import and export elasticity coefficient of the real effective exchange rate is greater than 1. The Marshall Lerner condition is established, regardless of price transmission.Only from the elastic transmission mechanism of exchange rate, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar is beneficial to the improvement of the trade balance, and there is no "J" curve effect. The price effect of outbound travel is greater than the income effect, and the improvement of supply factors such as the increase of real income in Canada, etc.The income effect of inbound tour is greater than that of price, and the "word-of-mouth effect" is obvious.The expectation of the foreign exchange rate of the inbound tourists will affect their decision on inbound tourism, and the impact of the exchange rate is short-term and long-term.The most fundamental way to reverse the trade balance deficit is to improve the international competitiveness of Canada's tourism services trade from the point of view of supply. (5) the improvement of trade balance has a virtuous circle and has the "Matthew effect".Therefore, it is imperative to improve Canada's tourism trade deficit and achieve balance of trade in tourism services.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F837.11;F757.11;F597.11

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