本文選題：跨年度預(yù)算平衡機(jī)制 + 中期財政規(guī)劃　； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩,財政收支矛盾進(jìn)一步加劇,各級政府面臨著更嚴(yán)峻的債務(wù)風(fēng)險。然而未來一段時間內(nèi)我國公共支出和投資規(guī)模仍呈現(xiàn)出大規(guī)模上升趨勢,這將導(dǎo)致財政支出壓力大幅攀升,加劇了對我國財政制度抗壓能力的考驗。傳統(tǒng)的年度預(yù)算平衡機(jī)制存在較多問題,不僅無法起到熨平經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的作用,反倒給經(jīng)濟(jì)運行帶來更大的風(fēng)險。實踐證明,跨年度預(yù)算平衡機(jī)制可以有效克服傳統(tǒng)年度預(yù)算存在的弊端,因此當(dāng)前預(yù)算管理模式改革是朝著跨年度預(yù)算平衡機(jī)制與中期財政規(guī)劃的方向發(fā)展。本文首先介紹了跨年度預(yù)算平衡機(jī)制的內(nèi)涵及理論基礎(chǔ),并對其客觀存在的必要性進(jìn)行深入探析。其次,本文深入剖析了跨年度預(yù)算平衡機(jī)制在我國實踐的難點及存在的問題,充分借鑒了西方發(fā)達(dá)國家跨年度預(yù)算平衡機(jī)制改革的成功經(jīng)驗。最后,為進(jìn)一步完善我國跨年度預(yù)算平衡機(jī)制改革,本文提出了應(yīng)繼續(xù)提高中期財政收支預(yù)測水平,做好跨年度預(yù)算與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的銜接工作,進(jìn)一步提高跨年度預(yù)算在執(zhí)行中的法律地位和效力,完善專項轉(zhuǎn)移支付定期評估和退出機(jī)制等政策建議。另外,相關(guān)配套措施也需進(jìn)一步完善,應(yīng)建立跨年度預(yù)算績效指標(biāo)評價體系,并繼續(xù)深化權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制下政府綜合財務(wù)報告制度改革。本文針對跨年度預(yù)算編制的最大難點——中期財政收支預(yù)測,利用經(jīng)過季節(jié)調(diào)整后的財政收支月度數(shù)據(jù),通過建立ARIMA模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測,結(jié)合經(jīng)驗分析提出相對準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測方法,為保障跨年度預(yù)算平衡機(jī)制順利實施提供有價值的參考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as China's economic growth slows and fiscal revenue and expenditure conflicts intensify, governments at all levels are facing more severe debt risks. However, in the future, the scale of public expenditure and investment in China will continue to show a large-scale upward trend, which will lead to a sharp rise in the pressure of fiscal expenditure, which has intensified the test of the ability of our fiscal system to resist pressure. There are many problems in the traditional annual budget balance mechanism, not only can not play the role of ironing the economic fluctuations, but also bring greater risks to the economic operation. Practice has proved that the inter-annual budget balance mechanism can effectively overcome the shortcomings of the traditional annual budget, so the current budget management model reform is towards the cross-annual budget balance mechanism and medium-term financial planning direction. This paper first introduces the connotation and theoretical basis of the inter-annual budget balance mechanism, and probes into the necessity of its objective existence. Secondly, this paper deeply analyzes the difficulties and problems in the practice of cross-annual budget balance mechanism in our country, and fully draws lessons from the successful experience of cross-annual budget balance mechanism reform in western developed countries. Finally, in order to further improve the reform of the inter-annual budget balance mechanism in China, this paper puts forward that we should continue to improve the level of medium-term fiscal revenue and expenditure forecasting, and do a good job in linking the cross-annual budget and macroeconomic policies. We should further improve the legal status and effectiveness of the inter-annual budget and improve the periodic evaluation and withdrawal mechanism of special transfer payments. In addition, the relevant supporting measures need to be further improved, the inter-annual budget performance indicators evaluation system should be established, and continue to deepen the accrual basis of the government comprehensive financial reporting system reform. In this paper, according to the biggest difficulty of the inter-annual budget preparation, the medium-term fiscal revenue and expenditure forecast, using the monthly data of fiscal revenue and expenditure after seasonally adjusted, through the establishment of ARIMA model to forecast, combined with empirical analysis to put forward a relatively accurate forecasting method. To ensure the smooth implementation of the cross-annual budget balance mechanism to provide a valuable reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.3

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本文編號：1836007