本文選題：保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理 + 回報(bào)預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理公司可謂買方中的買方,近年來(lái)業(yè)務(wù)突飛猛進(jìn),引起市場(chǎng)越來(lái)越多的關(guān)注。保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)由保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理人集中管理、投資獲得收益。對(duì)于保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理人而言,更傾向于獲得長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的回報(bào),那么在眾多經(jīng)濟(jì)鏈條公司股票中挑選出能夠升值保值的組合,就需要投入大量的精力。目前國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)于上下游企業(yè)的回報(bào)預(yù)測(cè)關(guān)系的研究存在于各行各業(yè),但是在金融領(lǐng)域的分析不是很多,而保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理行業(yè)更是寥寥無(wú)幾。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化背景下,單純的企業(yè)利潤(rùn)結(jié)構(gòu)已不能全面清晰地反映企業(yè)在一定時(shí)期的經(jīng)營(yíng)運(yùn)作成果,基于經(jīng)濟(jì)鏈條視角的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析成為各行各業(yè)新的研究工具,本文參考了其他領(lǐng)域的研究結(jié)論,將上下游公司可交叉預(yù)測(cè)回報(bào)運(yùn)用到金融投資里的保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理方面,將數(shù)學(xué)理論融合到保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理公司投資實(shí)踐中,從看似無(wú)規(guī)律的保險(xiǎn)資本投資市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行中找到規(guī)律,通過(guò)搭建數(shù)學(xué)模型來(lái)擬合這種規(guī)律,將數(shù)學(xué)模型和投資策略相結(jié)合來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)未來(lái)的走向,指導(dǎo)資產(chǎn)管理者的投資行為。首先,文章在對(duì)已有的顧客分類研究的基礎(chǔ)上,重新歸類了保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理公司的上游企業(yè),并以企業(yè)是否具有信息變動(dòng)為依據(jù)設(shè)定上游企業(yè)細(xì)分準(zhǔn)則,因?yàn)樾畔⒆儎?dòng)帶動(dòng)股價(jià)變動(dòng)。對(duì)上游客戶類型精挑細(xì)選,而不是不加甄別,保證了企業(yè)資源的優(yōu)化配置,使保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)得到了持續(xù)收益。其次,在對(duì)保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理公司現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,依據(jù)面板回歸模型和現(xiàn)金流分析,利用樣本內(nèi)數(shù)據(jù)和樣本外數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證了模型的可行性和準(zhǔn)確性,就理論結(jié)果與實(shí)證分析進(jìn)行了實(shí)證比較研究。從保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理公司的經(jīng)濟(jì)鏈條層面為保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理人提供高投資績(jī)效的方法,積極管理投資,根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)的市場(chǎng)走向找到恰當(dāng)?shù)耐顿Y機(jī)會(huì)來(lái)獲得預(yù)期投資收益。再次,應(yīng)用我國(guó)的保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理公司數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,采用新的顧客細(xì)分及經(jīng)濟(jì)鏈條研究能比較貼切的預(yù)測(cè)保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理公司的回報(bào),得到跨行業(yè)的股票回報(bào)率在彼此的供應(yīng)鏈上是經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)的結(jié)論�；诮徊嫘袠I(yè)做出的投資策略產(chǎn)生更明顯的收益,對(duì)指導(dǎo)資產(chǎn)管理經(jīng)理的投資策略具有重大指導(dǎo)意義。最后,根據(jù)實(shí)證研究得到我國(guó)保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理公司的上下游投資組合回報(bào)可以交互預(yù)測(cè)股票回報(bào),與次月股票回報(bào)同向變動(dòng)的結(jié)論,根據(jù)這種預(yù)測(cè)關(guān)系建立更加穩(wěn)妥的投資策略,獲得更高的收益回報(bào),進(jìn)而對(duì)模型進(jìn)行前景展望。預(yù)測(cè)收益率能為資產(chǎn)管理者提供投資參考價(jià)值,但不是投資策略的唯一參考標(biāo)準(zhǔn),需要考慮更多的因素,也是文章可以深入探討的方面。最終達(dá)到保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)管理行業(yè)更好的完成資產(chǎn)配置、提高投資效益、提高保險(xiǎn)主業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力、加大保險(xiǎn)在金融市場(chǎng)的占有份額及有效防范利差損風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的目的。
[Abstract]:The insurance asset management company is the buyer among the buyers. In recent years, the business has developed rapidly, which has attracted more and more attention in the market.The insurance assets are managed centrally by the insurance asset manager and the investment gains income.For insurance asset managers, they are more inclined to obtain long-term stable returns, so it is necessary to invest a lot of energy in selecting the portfolio that can appreciate and maintain the value in many stocks of economic chain companies.At present, the research on the relationship between upstream and downstream enterprises' return prediction exists in various industries, but the analysis in the financial field is not many, and the insurance asset management industry is even less.Under the background of global economic integration, the pure profit structure of enterprises can no longer reflect clearly the operating results of enterprises in a certain period of time. The economic analysis based on economic chain has become a new research tool for various industries.Referring to the conclusions of other fields, this paper applies the cross-forecast return of upstream and downstream companies to the management of insurance assets in financial investment, and integrates the mathematical theory into the investment practice of insurance asset management companies.From the seemingly irregular operation of the insurance capital investment market to find out the law, through building mathematical model to fit the law, the combination of mathematical model and investment strategy to predict the future direction of the insurance market,To guide the investment behavior of asset managers.First of all, on the basis of the existing customer classification research, this paper reclassifies the upstream enterprises of insurance asset management companies, and establishes the upstream enterprise segmentation criteria based on whether the enterprises have information changes.Because the information changes drive the stock price change.The upstream customer type is carefully selected instead of discriminating, which ensures the optimal allocation of enterprise resources and makes the insurance assets get sustained income.Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the current situation of insurance asset management company, according to the panel regression model and cash flow analysis, the feasibility and accuracy of the model are verified by using the data inside and outside the sample.A comparative study of theoretical results and empirical analysis is carried out.From the economic chain of the insurance asset management company, it provides the method of high investment performance for the insurance asset manager, actively manages the investment, finds the right investment opportunity according to the forecast market trend to obtain the expected investment return.Thirdly, using the data of China's insurance asset management companies to carry out empirical analysis, using new customer segmentation and economic chain research can more appropriately predict the return of insurance asset management companies.Getting a cross-industry return on stocks is an economic-related conclusion in each other's supply chain.The investment strategy based on the cross industry produces more obvious income, which is of great significance to guide the investment strategy of asset management managers.Finally, according to the empirical study, we get the conclusion that the upstream and downstream portfolio returns of insurance asset management companies in China can interactively predict the stock returns and change in the same direction as the stock returns in the following month, and establish a more stable investment strategy according to this forecasting relationship.To obtain a higher return on income, and then prospects for the model.The forecast rate of return can provide investment reference value for asset managers, but it is not the only reference standard of investment strategy. It needs to consider more factors, and it is also an aspect that can be discussed in depth.Finally, the purpose of the insurance asset management industry is to achieve better asset allocation, improve investment efficiency, improve the competitiveness of the main insurance industry, increase the share of insurance in the financial market and effectively guard against the risk of spread loss.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F842.3

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