本文選題：電力投資　切入點：最優(yōu)規(guī)模　出處：《上海電力學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：電力投資是一國能源工業(yè)發(fā)展必不可少的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)。改革開放以來,伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展與用電量的快速增長,電力投資總額也在不斷地擴(kuò)大。然而投資規(guī)模并非越大越好,由于邊際產(chǎn)出遞減效應(yīng)的存在,電力投資存在一個最優(yōu)規(guī)模的問題。鑒于此,分析我國電力投資是否達(dá)到最優(yōu)規(guī)模,以及如何評估不同地區(qū)的投資績效,以便做出合理的投資安排,對于電力投資的科學(xué)規(guī)劃有著重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。首先,為分析電力消費與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的長期趨勢,采用HP濾波法將用電量和GDP時間序列分為趨勢部分和波動部分,在此基礎(chǔ)上借助脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)考察兩者關(guān)系,揭示了電力消費到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的單向長期的因果關(guān)系,表明充分的電力供給是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要保障。以此為依據(jù),結(jié)合財政支出增長效應(yīng)理論,構(gòu)建了電力投資最優(yōu)規(guī)模與邊際產(chǎn)出的回歸模型,并給出變量的處理方法。該模型函數(shù)表達(dá)式簡潔,意義清晰,求解方便,具有可操作性。然后以我國1996-2013年的序列樣本求解電力投資的最優(yōu)規(guī)模,以及電源與電網(wǎng)投資的邊際產(chǎn)出。實證結(jié)果顯示:我國電力投資的最優(yōu)規(guī)模為3.5%,高于實際規(guī)模。其中,電源投資的邊際產(chǎn)出為1.23,電網(wǎng)投資的邊際產(chǎn)出為1.35,因此我國電力投資規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)尚有進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化的空間。其次,根據(jù)電力投資績效評價的意義、原則和要求,構(gòu)建了包含4個一級指標(biāo)、12個二級指標(biāo)的電力投資績效評價指標(biāo)體系,該指標(biāo)體系從社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境3個方面對電力工業(yè)的發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行了充分覆蓋,因而可以較好地對電力投資的績效進(jìn)行評價。最后以電力投資績效評價指標(biāo)體系為標(biāo)準(zhǔn),基于熵權(quán)TOPSIS績效評價方法,對2013年我國7個按地理方位劃分的區(qū)域和30個行政區(qū)域的電力投資績效進(jìn)行了綜合評價。評價結(jié)果揭示了不同地區(qū)電力工業(yè)的優(yōu)勢環(huán)節(jié)和薄弱環(huán)節(jié),反映了電力投資績效的不平衡,從而為政府優(yōu)化投資決策提供了參考。該方法概念通俗易懂,應(yīng)用方便,計算過程清晰,各評價對象的賦權(quán)不依賴于主觀判斷,并且可以用簡單的數(shù)學(xué)形式描述,因此具有很強(qiáng)的科學(xué)性與客觀性。
[Abstract]:Electricity investment is an indispensable material foundation for the development of energy industry in a country. Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of economy and the rapid growth of electricity consumption, the total amount of electricity investment has been continuously expanding. However, the scale of investment is not the bigger the better. Because of the diminishing marginal output effect, there is a problem of optimal scale in power investment. In view of this, this paper analyzes whether the power investment in China has reached the optimal scale and how to evaluate the investment performance of different regions. In order to make reasonable investment arrangements, it is of great theoretical and practical significance for the scientific planning of power investment. First, in order to analyze the long-term trend of electricity consumption and national economy, The power consumption and GDP time series are divided into trend part and fluctuation part by HP filtering method. On the basis of this, the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth is investigated with the help of impulse response function, and the one-way long-term causality between power consumption and economic growth is revealed. It shows that adequate power supply is an important guarantee for economic growth. Based on the theory of fiscal expenditure growth effect, the regression model of optimal scale of power investment and marginal output is established. The function expression of the model is simple, the meaning is clear, the solution is convenient and operable. Then, the optimal scale of power investment is solved with the series samples from 1996 to 2013. The empirical results show that the optimal scale of power investment in China is 3.5, which is higher than the actual scale. The marginal output of power investment is 1.23 and the marginal output of grid investment is 1.35. Therefore, there is still room for further optimization of the scale and structure of power investment in China. Secondly, according to the significance, principles and requirements of power investment performance evaluation, This paper constructs an index system of power investment performance evaluation, which includes 4 first class indexes and 12 second class indexes. The index system covers the development level of power industry from three aspects: society, economy and environment. Therefore, the performance of power investment can be evaluated better. Finally, based on entropy weight TOPSIS performance evaluation method, the performance evaluation index system of power investment is taken as the standard. The performance of power investment in 7 geographical regions and 30 administrative regions in China in 2013 is comprehensively evaluated. The evaluation results reveal the advantages and disadvantages of the power industry in different regions. It reflects the imbalance of power investment performance, which provides a reference for the government to optimize investment decision. This method is easy to understand, easy to use, clear calculation process, and the weight of each evaluation object does not depend on subjective judgment. And can be described in simple mathematical form, so it has a strong scientific and objective.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海電力學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

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