本文選題：投資者情緒　切入點(diǎn)：管理者過(guò)度自信　出處：《遼寧大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)股權(quán)分置改革的實(shí)施,推動(dòng)了上市公司新一輪并購(gòu)高潮的出現(xiàn),也促進(jìn)了跨國(guó)并購(gòu)的蓬勃發(fā)展。傳統(tǒng)金融理論假設(shè)市場(chǎng)有效、投資者和管理者完全理性,對(duì)并購(gòu)及跨國(guó)并購(gòu)的一些績(jī)效異常情況缺乏解釋力。因此,本文基于行為公司金融學(xué)的研究視角,將投資者情緒與管理者過(guò)度自信理論相結(jié)合,分析了投資者情緒、管理者過(guò)度自信對(duì)跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效的影響及其影響路徑。本文的研究成果豐富了行為金融學(xué)對(duì)跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效影響的研究,也為我國(guó)上市公司改善公司治理機(jī)制、建立科學(xué)的投資決策機(jī)制以及保護(hù)跨國(guó)并購(gòu)活動(dòng)中股東利益提供了實(shí)證支持。本文以我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)上存在投資者非理性和管理者非理性,且這種非理性易引發(fā)非理性投資為背景,回顧了學(xué)者們關(guān)于投資者情緒、管理者過(guò)度自信對(duì)并購(gòu)及并購(gòu)績(jī)效的有關(guān)研究。然后依據(jù)噪聲交易理論、認(rèn)知失調(diào)理論、情緒泛化假說(shuō)及自大假說(shuō)等理論,梳理了投資者情緒和管理者過(guò)度自信影響企業(yè)跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效、投資者情緒影響管理者過(guò)度自信的作用機(jī)理,并提出了相關(guān)假設(shè),確定了相關(guān)變量的衡量方法。之后建立了回歸模型來(lái)檢驗(yàn)相關(guān)假設(shè),并得出了研究結(jié)論。最后從行為金融學(xué)的視角上,對(duì)如何更好的提升跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效以及如何識(shí)別投資者和管理者非理性提出針對(duì)性的建議,為我國(guó)企業(yè)更好的完成跨國(guó)并購(gòu)活動(dòng)提供了支持。在本文的實(shí)證分析中,以2013年間在滬深A(yù)股市場(chǎng)上的33起跨國(guó)并購(gòu)事件為樣本,將跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效分為短期績(jī)效和長(zhǎng)期績(jī)效,分別檢驗(yàn)了投資者情緒對(duì)管理者過(guò)度自信、跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效的影響;之后將投資者情緒與管理者過(guò)度自信相結(jié)合,檢驗(yàn)了管理者過(guò)度自信在投資者情緒和跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效之間的中介效應(yīng)。本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn),管理者過(guò)度自信與投資者情緒正相關(guān);跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效與投資者情緒負(fù)相關(guān);管理者過(guò)度自信在投資者情緒和跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效之間存在部分中介作用。本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容及框架共分為五部分:緒論、理論分析與研究假設(shè)、研究設(shè)計(jì)、實(shí)證分析與結(jié)果和結(jié)論與建議。在緒論中介紹了研究背景,提出了要研究的問(wèn)題,并闡述了本研究的理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義;然后,對(duì)投資者情緒、管理者過(guò)度自信與并購(gòu)績(jī)效進(jìn)行了相關(guān)的文獻(xiàn)回顧與評(píng)述;最后提出了本文的研究思路、研究方法、研究?jī)?nèi)容、基本框架和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。在理論分析與研究假設(shè)中對(duì)相關(guān)變量的概念進(jìn)行了界定,并介紹和確定了變量的衡量方法;然后梳理了投資者情緒及管理者過(guò)度自信的相關(guān)理論;并依據(jù)這些理論分析了投資者情緒、管理者過(guò)度自信與跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效三者之間的關(guān)系,提出了研究假設(shè),為下文的實(shí)證提供鋪墊。在研究設(shè)計(jì)中首先介紹了跨國(guó)并購(gòu)樣本的選取、數(shù)據(jù)的來(lái)源、所需的變量及其定義,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,提出了實(shí)證研究的模型,并對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了剖析。實(shí)證分析與結(jié)果中首先介紹了跨國(guó)并購(gòu)短期和長(zhǎng)期績(jī)效的計(jì)算;之后進(jìn)行了描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析;然后分為短期績(jī)效和長(zhǎng)期績(jī)效,分別進(jìn)行了相關(guān)性分析,并回歸檢驗(yàn)了投資者情緒對(duì)管理者過(guò)度自信的作用、投資者情緒對(duì)跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效的作用,并探討了管理者過(guò)度自信在投資者情緒與跨國(guó)并購(gòu)績(jī)效關(guān)系中的中介作用;最后進(jìn)行了穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)論與建議章節(jié)中首先總結(jié)了研究結(jié)論;之后對(duì)本文的研究結(jié)論進(jìn)行了相關(guān)討論,提出了一些針對(duì)性意見;最后分析和討論了本研究的局限性,并對(duì)未來(lái)研究的方向進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:The implementation of China's share reform of listed companies, promote the emergence of a new round of mergers and acquisitions climax, also promote the vigorous development of transnational mergers and acquisitions market hypothesis. The traditional financial theory, investors and managers are fully rational, lack of explanatory power on the performance of multinational M & A and some abnormal situation. Therefore, this research perspective based on behavioral corporate finance theory, investor sentiment and managerial overconfidence theory combined with the analysis of investor sentiment, the influence of Managerial Overconfidence on transnational mergers and acquisitions performance and influence path. This study enriches the research results of behavioral finance impact on cross-border mergers and acquisitions performance, but also improve the corporate governance mechanism in China listed companies, provide empirical support for the interests of the shareholders to establish scientific investment decision-making mechanism and the protection of transnational mergers and acquisitions activities. This paper exists in China's capital market investors Non rational and irrational managers, which easily lead to irrational irrational investment as the background, reviews the scholars on investor sentiment, managerial overconfidence on mergers and acquisitions performance related research. Then based on the noise trading theory, the theory of cognitive dissonance, emotional generalization hypothesis and arrogant hypothesis theory, combing the investors emotional and managerial overconfidence influence of transnational M & a performance, the mechanism of the influence of investor sentiment of managerial overconfidence, and put forward relevant assumptions, determine the methods to measure the relevant variables. After the establishment of the regression model to test the hypotheses, and draw the conclusion. Finally, from the perspective of behavioral finance, cross-border mergers and acquisitions the performance of how to better improve and how to identify the investors and managers of non rational and targeted recommendations, for the completion of the Chinese enterprises transnational mergers and acquisitions. Provide support. In the empirical analysis in this article, with 2013 years in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares on the market 33 transnational merger and acquisition events as samples, will be cross-border mergers and acquisitions performance is divided into short-term and long-term performance, tested the investor sentiment of Manager Overconfidence, influence of transnational mergers and acquisitions performance; after the investor sentiment and managerial overconfidence combined the mediating effect test of managerial overconfidence between investor sentiment and transnational mergers and acquisitions performance. This study found that managerial overconfidence and investor sentiment is positively related to the performance of transnational merger and investor sentiment; negative correlation; managerial overconfidence between investor sentiment and transnational mergers and acquisitions performance has a partial mediating effect. Research content and framework of this thesis is divided into five parts: introduction, theoretical analysis and research hypothesis, research design, empirical analysis and results and conclusions and recommendations. The introduction introduces the research background, the research questions, elaborated on the theoretical and practical significance; then, on investor sentiment, managerial overconfidence and M & a performance reviews and reviews relevant literature; finally puts forward the research ideas, research methods, research content, basic the framework and innovation. In the theoretical analysis and research hypothesis in the concept of related variables were defined, and the methods of measuring and determining variables; and then sort out the related theories of investor sentiment and managerial overconfidence; and on the basis of the theory analysis of the investor sentiment, the relationship between Managerial Overconfidence and transnational mergers and acquisitions performance the three, put forward the hypothesis, to pave the way for the following empirical research. In the design first introduced the selection of cross-border mergers and acquisitions of samples, data sources, and the variables required Righteousness, and on this basis, put forward the empirical research model, and the model is analyzed. The empirical analysis and results of first introduced the calculation of cross-border mergers and acquisitions of short-term and long-term performance; after the descriptive statistical analysis; and then divided into short-term and long-term performance, respectively for the correlation analysis, and regression test. Investor sentiment of manager overconfidence effect, effect of investor sentiment on cross-border mergers and acquisitions performance, and to explore the mediating role of Managerial Overconfidence on the relationship between investor sentiment and transnational mergers and acquisitions performance; finally a robust test. The conclusion and suggestion in the first chapter summarizes the research conclusion; then the conclusions of this study are the discussion, put forward some specific opinions; finally analyzes the limitations of this study and discussed and directions for future research are prospected.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F279.2;F271

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